Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
THEY DON'T RING THE BELL AT THE CRPTO MARKET TOP! - 20th Dec 24
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER? - 18th Dec 24
Nvidia Stock 5X to 30X - 18th Dec 24
LRCX Stock Split - 18th Dec 24
Stock Market Expected Trend Forecast - 18th Dec 24
Silver’s Evolving Market: Bright Prospects and Lingering Challenges - 18th Dec 24
Extreme Levels of Work-for-Gold Ratio - 18th Dec 24
Tesla $460, Bitcoin $107k, S&P 6080 - The Pump Continues! - 16th Dec 24
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 - 15th Dec 24
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year - 15th Dec 24
Sheffield Christmas Market 2024 Is a Building Site - 15th Dec 24
Got Copper or Gold Miners? Watch Out - 15th Dec 24
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market - 13th Dec 24
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months - 13th Dec 24
What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market? - 13th Dec 24
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? - 13th Dec 24
Interest Rates, Unemployment and the SPX - 13th Dec 24
Fed Balance Sheet Continues To Decline - 13th Dec 24
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives - 8th Dec 24
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 - 2nd Dec 24
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

S&P 1200 Remains Too Difficult... For Now....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Nov 22, 2010 - 04:36 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

And that's not bad news at all. The market could definitely use more to refresh. A longer time to pause to sell off slowly but gradually. Enough time to unwind those oscillators from neutral to oversold on those daily charts. The longer we sell off slowly the more sentiment will erode. The market wouldn't be best served if we just flew up here. Won't happen in all likelihood, but anything is always possible.


Bottom line is the market is behaving in a fashion that serves it best. It's gradually pulling back without getting slaughtered. That's what normal behavior looks like when a market is coming off measurements made over several months. I know it can be somewhat frustrating, especially if you're over playing, but that's the reality of the stock market my friends. It's not always your best friend and when it's not, only playing less, and more appropriately, will allow you to survive without getting your pockets picked clean. This will also allow you to play harder and without fear when the market says it's time to rock back in down the road.

The more bad experiences you put yourself through now, the less you'll perform up with the market when the time comes, thus, it's two-fold if you play too hard. Relax and go with the flow of the markets message. It says that light playing is best, and that if you do play, nothing high beta in terms of risky plays. Low to medium beta the way to survive best.

Over the weekend the SEC announced that the world will be rocked with the biggest insider buying scam ever. That they have some huge names caught in the act of giving out information in an illegal manner. I'm shocked!! The market not fair? No way! That can't be true! We all know it's on an equal playing field don't we?! Anyway, maybe for once something will get done on a level never seen before. This didn't help the market with its futures this morning. A nice rush lower with those guilty to be financials getting hit the hardest. Goldman Sachs (GS) seemed to have felt it the worst dropping nearly 3 1/2%. Well deserved and well earned. A slaughter that couldn't be more deserving to those wonderful financial stocks.

However, with regards to the stock market, it had little to no effect by the time the market closed for the day. The market shrugged it off and came back strong with the Nasdaq actually finishing green. The S&P 500 and Dow were red, but again, well off their lows. Solid action for sure across the board as the market continues the lateral to down process.

So what's next you ask. The S&P 500 has to close above trend line and horizontal price resistance at 1200 before it can go back and test its highs at 1228. That would clearly set up the symmetrical triangle possibly in play here. We are very unlikely to break out any time soon, but a multi-week to multi-month base would be a good thing for the market as it would spike fear, which has gotten less by quite an amount over the past few weeks.

The longer we go nowhere the more traders hate the game. A very broad-based triangle would really get emotions flying high as we swing wildly within the range. Nothing like a wide and loose triangle to get the masses to hate things so that would be best. A move over 1200 would start that process. 1183 S&P 500 or gap support is next on that side of the ledger. So for now it's really about what goes first. 1183 is key support and 1200 key resistance. The triangle would set up better if we can get through 1200 first.

The very best way to play a wide and loose triangle is, basically, to go cash at the top, or even short a play if you see a great set-up. More than 3 plays below 1200 isn't smart. A drop more above 1200 if right would be fine. There is no way to know how long this lasts, but we have started week three with the range, thus far, set between 1228 on the top, and 1171 on the bottom, although a move back above 1200 sets up a stronger triangle.

Either way this is the range for now with the smaller range stated above between 1183 and 1200. It's also best to keep away from super beta plays although above 1200 S&P 500 on a closing basis could open the door to one play in that arena. However, overall it's best to keep things to lower to medium beta plays as a measure of safety. Play it slow and let the market flash its intentions. For now my focus is on 1183/1200, and then we go from there once one side grabs the upper hand.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 21-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2010 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constitutinginvestment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in