Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Strength, Optimism Continues Into Year-end

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Nov 12, 2010 - 03:54 AM GMT

By: Donald_W_Dony

Stock-Markets

Global stock markets have surged since the corrective low in early September. Many world equity indexes have pegged double digit returns in less than 10 weeks. The two most watched indexes, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, have also kept pace with the global advance by leaping 15.4% and 12.5% respectively. Yet this positive performance has many investors worried. With conflicting economic data plus generally upbeat Q3 earnings, can the markets continue their climb?


A reliable gauge of underlying strength often comes from the percentage of advancing stocks within an index (Chart 1). Levels that are over 50% are normally associated with positive performing markets. Percentages below 50% suggest the index is in transition or worst, starting to decline. The current reading of the percentage of advancing stocks on the S&P 500 is a bullish 80.40% and still rising. At this range, any market correction is short-lived and shallow.

As the economic health of a nation and its stock market performance are closely tied together, a measurement of the key components of the economy can provide valuable information for investors. One of those key measurements comes from the consumer. The spending direction of this largest contributing element of the economy can offer insights into how optimistic or pessimistic they have become. When consumers are generally feeling positive about their finances, they are more likely to spend on items that they do not particularly need (consumer discretionaries). When the consumer is concerned about the future, there is normally a heightened focus on purchasing only the basics (consumer staples).

Chart 2 is a ratio gauge of the performance between these two industry groups. During the bear market (2007-2008), the line has trended down. This means that the Consumer Staples index (XLP) was outperforming the Consumer Discretionary Index (XLY). Since late 2008, the line has been steadily advancing. This indicates that XLY is outperforming XLP and that consumers, are once again, feeling increasingly positive about their financial position.

Bottom line: Stock market strength and consumer optimism continues to ride a upward wave into year-end. Presently, 80% of the equities on the broad-based S&P 500 are trading above their long-term 200 day moving average. This fact coupled with the positive economic element of consumer spending on discretionaries over defensive staples indicates a high probability of higher stock market levels by January.

Investment approach: As stock markets generally trade in about 4-month cycles, models indicate that the next low can be expected in late December. This trough will likely be minor as 4th quarters in a mid-term election year plus the normal year-end holiday strength should provide good underlying support. Investors may wish to take advantage of this anticipated pullback to add to existing positions or look for new opportunities.

Longer-term, Q1 represents the start of the third year of the bull market. As stock markets, on average, are approximately four years in duration, investors should understand that there is probably another 18 to 24 months of growth still to come.

Your comments are always welcomed.

By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA
www.technicalspeculator.com

COPYRIGHT © 2010 Donald W. Dony
Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA has been in the investment profession for over 20 years, first as a stock broker in the mid 1980's and then as the principal of D. W. Dony and Associates Inc., a financial consulting firm to present.  He is the editor and publisher of the Technical Speculator, a monthly international investment newsletter, which specializes in major world equity markets, currencies, bonds and interest rates as well as the precious metals markets.   

Donald is also an instructor for the Canadian Securities Institute (CSI). He is often called upon to design technical analysis training programs and to provide teaching to industry professionals on technical analysis at many of Canada's leading brokerage firms.  He is a respected specialist in the area of intermarket and cycle analysis and a frequent speaker at investment conferences.

Mr. Dony is a member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).

Donald W. Dony Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in