Best Financial Markets Analysis Article Rise in equities got ya bullish? Be cautious. Amidst the October push to 11,000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has continued its calamitous descent against gold which began in 2001 and shows no signs of abating. The silent market crash is real, and the fall of this paper tiger is surreptitiously ferocious.

As I wrote earlier this year, gold is not an investment. Gold is money - real money (See: Aristotle). Today, the rise in the Dow is being shown for what it really is - a crash - by that golden bedrock of monetary stability.

In the past 10 years, gold has fallen in nominal value sharply at times. In 2008, it plummeted over 20% in six months. It may happen again. But the real statistic worth measuring is purchasing power.

Gold's real value is determined not in the price of a fiat currency, but as a ratio to other assets. The Dow/Gold ratio simply determines how many ounces of gold it takes to purchase one Dow Jones Industrial Index. Whether the economy suffers through deflation or hyperinflation, it's the purchasing power that matters.

Dow/Gold Ratio

I follow the Dow/Gold ratio closely as a measure of equity strength. It is worth noting that, in the two most difficult economic periods in the past one hundred years, the Dow/Gold Ratio approached 1. As of today it sits at 8.16.

July 1932 - Deflationary Depression
Dow 41.22, Gold $20.67
Ratio: 1.99

January 1980 - Inflation
Dow 872, Gold $850
Ratio: 1.03

Will the gold price catch the Dow to the upside as a result of hyperinflation, or will the Dow plummet towards the gold price in a deflationary vacuum? There are well-qualified arguments for each scenario. Regardless of direction, what we do know is that the ratio is narrowing - and fast!

'Til next time, that's my Saab Story.

By Tarek Saab

Website: trustedbullion.com E-mail: tarek@trustedbullion.com

Tarek Saab is an entrepreneur, speaker, and nationally syndicated author. He is the founder of Saab & Company Inc., which owned the online bullion business, Guardian Commodities, before it was acquired by Trusted Bullion in August 2010. An avid precious metals enthusiast, his column, Saab Stories, is published on this site and syndicated on many others.

Tarek rose to fame as a popular contestant on Season Five of The Apprentice with Donald Trump. He has been prominently featured in such magazines as Us Weekly, TV Guide, People, Enigma, In Touch Weekly, The Dallas Business Journal, The Fort Worth Business Journal, Digital Gold Currency Magazine, The Mensa Bulletin and numerous other print and online publications.

© 2010 Copyright Tarek Saab - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.