Will the Chinese Yuan Rise? What of Chinese Gold Investors?

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

There is palpable anger in the U.S. over the current 'peg' of the Yuan against the Dollar. Despite promises that the Yuan will rise, it remains close to where it was before China commented on its impending rise. Accusations of currency manipulation are again about to be leveled at China. The Chinese government must be thinking very carefully about the behavior of the Yuan in the days to come. In the face of U.S. anger, will the Chinese let the Yuan rise? With the government encouraging Chinese investors to buy gold and developing the Chinese gold distribution system, will investors feel if the Yuan were to rise 20% - 40% against the Dollar while gold falls by the same amount inside China?

Government encourages gold buying

We ask you to look at the accompanying table of China's Household Gold Savings against Annual household Gold Savings again. From this table, you can see just how important gold is to the Chinese. Despite disposable income growth of approximately s 15% annually since 2000, consumption growth in the China's economy "is anemic", but private Chinese gold demand has risen 26% annually by volume in the last decade, drawing a still-greater share of the newly retained wealth. This demand is nationwide and set, not just to grow, but to burgeon.

At the same time the Chinese government has allowed more banks to import gold and to distribute and sell gold. The country is developing at double-digits growth. It's urbanizing with infrastructure springing up across the entire nation and with it the gold market. The Chinese government is very conscious of keeping their people happy as this growth takes them up into a new world.

What will a 40% rise in the Yuan: $ exchange rate do to the Yuan gold price?

But how will they feel if their own government engineers a rise in the Yuan exchange rate against the U.S. Dollar? The U.S. says that it should rise 40% to level the playing fields. A straight translation of such a rise will mean a fall in the Yuan price of gold of:

Yuan 6.7597 x Gold price $1,250 = Yuan 8,449.63
Yuan 4.0558 x Gold Price $1,250 = Yuan 5,069.75

That is a huge drop in the value of their savings. Big enough for even the most tranquil of investors to have a major sense of humor failure.

A rise of 5% would leave you a bit out of joint but would be bearable, particularly if the gold price was rising at the time.

Will the Yuan rise against the U.S. Dollar?

Since 2005 we have talked of the Yuan coming to international markets and it is in the process of occurring as we write. There are currently several big bank road shows touring the world advocating the use of the Yuan in international trade.

Think for a moment of the pressure out there to acquire and invest in the Yuan. It is enormous. In the belief that the Yuan will rise to readjust and then remain strong, importers and exporters would favor holding the Yuan as long as possible. We believe that the receptivity will be excellent. But will that make the exchange rate rise? The Chinese know that and want that demand, but they don't want the Yuan to rise and spoil their global trade.

Imagine if all non-U.S. importers and exporters had to pay or receive a Yuan price. Life would be simpler for all countries except the U.S. No more buying the mobile Dollar. At last a currency that is linked to a strong and growing economy. One would expect the volatility of a free-floating Yuan to be low. It will be linked to a 'Basket of China's main trading partner's currencies', so be relatively stable, one would expect. Its stability and the protection of global Chinese trade is the driving force behind its internationalization. So its exchange rate must be linked to that purpose.

For this to happen, China has to rapidly and enormously expand the amount of Yuan in international markets. There would have to be a flood of Yuan coming out of China. China would have to manage the exchange rate carefully to ensure that the level was as they wanted it. Of course it could go either way, so expect exchange rate management and manipulation as it settles into global currency markets.

Standing in Chinese monetary authorities shoes, flooding the world with Yuan would ensure no exchange rate jump, with even a chance of a fall. We therefore forecast that the Yuan will not move much from current levels. Its arrival will not be quiet though!

What of Chinese Gold Investors?

The Chinese authorities have to consider not only the Trade competitiveness of their exporters, which they still see as the driving force to their growth, but they also have to ensure the preservation of the value of their peoples savings.

We are reminded that the Chinese government is keenly aware of the potential for social unrest in the country. Such a savage drop in the Yuan gold price would result in a devastation of savings that could become a festering sore. So we forecast that the Yuan will not be allowed to rise by any significant amount. We also forecast that the Yuan price of gold will not rise or fall more than it does in the U.S. Dollar at present.

The counter that will prevent this, we forecast, will be the rapid internationalization of the Yuan and in such quantities that foreign exchanges will not be inclined to raise the Yuan exchange rate.

Of more significance to the gold price is if U.S. importers and exporters had to buy Yuan to trade with China? In itself it seems reasonable, but in terms of an attack on the Dollar we see fur flying everywhere.

Part II of this series will focus on the potential conflict with the U.S. on this

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By Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold-Authentic Money

Copyright 2009 Authentic Money. All Rights Reserved.
Julian Phillips - was receiving his qualifications to join the London Stock Exchange. He was already deeply immersed in the currency turmoil engulfing world in 1970 and the Institutional Gold Markets, and writing for magazines such as "Accountancy" and the "International Currency Review" He still writes for the ICR.

What is Gold-Authentic Money all about ? Our business is GOLD! Whether it be trends, charts, reports or other factors that have bearing on the price of gold, our aim is to enable you to understand and profit from the Gold Market.

Disclaimer - This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips only and are subject to change without notice.

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