A Jun/Jul recovery in NZD/USD seemed to lessen the threat from medium term bears, but recently resistance from the 76.4% retracement level effectively repelled the gains, and the first sign of momentum loss has now appeared.

The FX Specialist view

WEEKLY CHART:

Earlier in 2010 clear support was seen from the 38.2% pullback level, with the subsequent bounce impressive.

However, note that, on this chart, at least temporary resistance has been found near to a former 76.4% chart level.

Now look at the Daily chart...

DAILY CHART:

On this chart note that resistance has come from a 76.4% recovery level.

Momentum loss has now been signalled by the recent breach of the s/term bull channel base.

Temporary support is emerging from a falling resistance/return line (and the current chart structure could be suggesting a rebound attempt is not far off) – ideally any s/term bounce will find resistance from around the 0.7186 30-Jul low.

A later break of the return line would be further negative, with lower 0.6800 former lows area then becoming the key support.

Mark Sturdy
John Lewis

Seven Days Ahead
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