Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19
The IPO Market Is Nowhere Near a Bubble - 9th Oct 19
US Stock Markets Trade Sideways – Waiting on News/Guidance  - 9th Oct 19
Amazon Selling Fake Hard Drives - 4tb WD Blue - How to Check Your Drive is Genuine  - 9th Oct 19
Whatever Happened to Philippines Debt Slavery?  - 9th Oct 19
Gold in the Negative Real Interest Rates Environment - 9th Oct 19
The Later United States Empire - 9th Oct 19
Gold It’s All About Real Interest Rates Not the US Dollar - 8th Oct 19
A Trump Impeachment Would Cause The Stock Market To Rally - 8th Oct 19
The Benefits of Applying for Online Loans - 8th Oct 19
Is There Life Left In Cannabis - 8th Oct 19
Yield Curve Inversion Current State - 7th Oct 19
Silver Is Cheap – And Getting Cheaper - 7th Oct 19
Stock Market Back to Neutral - 7th Oct 19
Free Market Capitalism: Laughably Predictable - 7th Oct 19
Four Fundamental Reasons to Buy Gold and Silver - 7th Oct 19
Gold and Silver Taking a Breather - 7th Oct 19
Check Engine Warning Light ECU Dealer Diagnostic Cost - Land Rover Discovery Sport - 6th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

China Stock Market Ready to Surge 50%: Part II

Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market Jul 26, 2010 - 07:25 AM GMT

By: Dhaval_Shah

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn last 3 months, Chinese market( Shanghai Composite) went through 27% correction. But, detailed analysis show that victims were mostly real estate developers and related stocks. Broader market weathered this correction quite swiftly correcting anywhere between 5-7% against 27%. And, now Shanghai Composite looks ready for major upside.


I wrote first part of China Ready to Surge 50% on Feb 11, 2010. When I recommended Chinese market, Shanghai Composite was trading below 3000 and went up to 3166 before correcting whopping 27% in less than 3 month from the top.

It is indeed major correction. But, I did not recommend exiting Chinese market during last 3 months.
Because, my investors did not lose single penny in this severe correction.
Yes, you read it right.

Let me tell you, why?
I had recommended JP Morgan JF Greater China Equity Fund to my investors. This fund primarily invests in China, Taiwan and Hongkong. Fund had almost nil investment in real estate developers and related stocks.

Investors, hedge funds and many experts were concerned about Chinese real estate bubble and recommended sell on China market.
But, if you analyse the fall, mostly real estate and related stocks went through correction. Rest market remained mostly intact with just 3-4 % correction compared to broader market correction of 27% from top to bottom.

Look at the real performance of Chinese stocks.

Except once, fund was hardly negative to -6% when Shanghai hit the bottom but was quick to rebound on every small pull ups.

This inherent strength reinforced my analysis and I recommended to hold on investments.

But, I do not want to stop here. I would like to add more Chinese funds as it looks more promising story post correction than before.

Let us walk through some fundamental view points.

Recent Economic stats from China

· China’s GDP expanded 11.1% in the first half of this year
· China’s June exports jumped 43.9% year on year, the second biggest in 6 years
· China imported highest crude oil surpassing US in oil consumption, 22.27 metric tonnes in June, that translates to daily import volume of 5.44 million barrels!!!
· China's industrial profits soared 81.6% through May. The combined sales of 39 industrial sectors soared to RMB 25.4 trillion ($3.7 trillion USD) in the first five months, a 38% increase over the same period last year.
· Nonferrous-metal mining profits soared 330%, while the coal mining industry saw profits rise 81%
· China's urban fixed asset investment soared 25.5% in the January through June period.
· Central government and local government projects climbed 14.1% and 27.0% from a year earlier ... industrial investments increased as much as 28.8% year on year and investment in the railway transportation sector rose 20.4%.
· China's retail sales soared 18.3% in June, and are up 18.2% for the January through June period, year on year.

Let us also walk through China’s Real Estate Policy to address investor’s concerns.

Real Estate Policy

Almost all analysts are comparing China’s real estate bubble with US. They conveniently forget the true picture and facts and do not highlight them.

A. US authorities knew about real estate bubble since 2005, when Mortgage Bankers Association’s purchase loan application index topped out at 529.30 in June 2005. It has been incessantly falling since then and closed at 168.90 last week. US AUTHORITIES, REGULATORS DID NOT TAKE ANY ACTION TO COOL THE MARKET.
B. When experts, analysts started warning china on Real Estate balloon, Chinese authorities and Regulators wasted no time and took harsh actions to contain the concerns like
Ø First home down payment increased to 30% from 20% for 1st home buyer
Ø Second home down payment has been hiked to 50% from 40%
Ø Mortgage rates on second-home purchases will be at least 110% of the central bank's benchmark lending rate,
Ø Mortgages for additional home purchases will face higher interest rates and higher deposit requirements
Ø Municipalities, particularly those that have seen sharp rises in housing property prices, have been ordered to submit new urban plans that ensure 70% of residential land is allocated for affordable housing
Ø Provincial governments will be required to take responsibility for helping to manage property prices, with authorities to be held accountable in stabilizing prices
Ø China’s mortgage-to-gross-domestic-product ratio rated a benign 15%, compared to levels of 80% to 110% typical in markets such as the U.S. bubble and U.K. prior to the financial crisis.
C In US, Real Estate bubble was wide spread almost covering entire nation. In
China, most analysts agree that it is limited to 70 big cities of China.
D I believe, there were more analysts, experts, central bankers and institutions
and economists incessantly warning US authorities, regulators and policy
makers about bubble situation and its devastating consequences if proper
actions not initiated immediately.
But, neither authorities and regulators acknowledged concerns nor they took action.
E On other side, you have China wherein Central Bank supports concerns,
Chinese premier too acknowledging bubble situation.
And, not limited to admission, but, followed by very effective actions.
This leads me to believe that probably Chinese leaders are more sensitive to
concerns and more proactive to take remedial actions at faster pace than
developed world. They are destined to keep economy afloat and buzzing.

Technical View:
After broad correction, Market has started picking up.
Do not forget, Shanghai is still whopping 57% down from the peak of 2008.

From Trading perspective, With closing basis stop loss of 2490, one can long Shanghai Composite.

For more fundamental view points, my China Ready to Surge part I (Click on Link: http://investmentacademy.wordpress.com/2010/02/11/china-ready-to-surge-50/ ), wherein, I have detailed fundamental viewpoints in depth

Regards

Dhaval Shah

Blog: http://investmentacademy.wordpress.com

E-mail: investmentacademy@yahoo.com, academyofinvestment@gmail.com

© 2010 Copyright Dhaval Shah - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

pharmacy tech
27 Jul 10, 17:10
thanks for the post

Keep posting stuff like this i really like it


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules