Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Statistical View of Price Ranges for U.S. and China Stock Markets

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Jul 24, 2010 - 02:51 PM GMT

By: Richard_Shaw

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe price range you might expect for a security is a function of your time frame and the volatility of the security. Investors with a 10-year time frame have a much different price range expectancy than an investor or trader with a 10-month, 10-week, 10-day or 10-minute time frame.

Let's look at volatility based price range possibilities for the US S&P 500 and the China FTSE Xinhua 25 over different time frames from the unique high of each in 2007, low in 2008 or 2009, YTD and from the most recent important high.


We used the actual S&P 500 index for the US stocks (close proxies are SPY, IVV and VFINX), and we used the iShares FXI as the proxy for the China stocks.

The charts below plot the best fit regression trend line for each period along with equidistant parallel lines describing a channel that is 2 standard deviations wide on each side -- encompassing about 96% of the prices that would be expected with the level of volatility generated during the period.

US Stocks:

The S&P 500 had its 2007 high in October, its 2009 low in March, and its most recent major high in April 2010.

The current values of the best fit trend line, channel high and channel low for each time frame (presented as period label, trend line end-value and channel high and low values in parenthesis) are:

  • from Oct 2007 High: 930 (1286 - 575)
  • from Mar 2009 Low: 1202 (1320 - 1082)
  • for 2010 YTD: 1103 (1197 - 1009)
  • from April 2010 High:1043 (1107 - 981).

China Stocks:

FXI had its 2007 high in October, its 2008 low in October, and its most recent major high in November 2009.

The current values of the best fit trend line, channel high and channel low for each time frame (presented as period label, trend line end-value and channel high and low values in parenthesis -- prices rounded to whole numbers) are:

  • from Oct 2007 High: 35 (52 - 18)
  • from Oct 2008 Low: 46 (54 - 38)
  • for 2010 YTD: 39 (43 - 36)
  • from Nov 2009 High: 39 (43 - 36)

Statistical ranges provide no guarantees, of course, but they are a factor to evaluate when making projections.

ETFs Cited: SPY, IVV, FXI

Holdings Disclosure: As of July 20, 2010, we do not own any securities mentioned in this article in any managed accounts.

By Richard Shaw 
http://www.qvmgroup.com

Richard Shaw leads the QVM team as President of QVM Group. Richard has extensive investment industry experience including serving on the board of directors of two large investment management companies, including Aberdeen Asset Management (listed London Stock Exchange) and as a charter investor and director of Lending Tree ( download short professional profile ). He provides portfolio design and management services to individual and corporate clients. He also edits the QVM investment blog. His writings are generally republished by SeekingAlpha and Reuters and are linked to sites such as Kiplinger and Yahoo Finance and other sites. He is a 1970 graduate of Dartmouth College.

Copyright 2006-2010 by QVM Group LLC All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Do your own due diligence.

Richard Shaw Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in