Stock Market Summer Rally or Summer Slump?, MortiES’ Weekend Update

By: Dr_John_Trapp

This is the weekend analysis that my premium subscribers received.  That is the question! I can make a case for either scenario, but the most recent data that ES has been giving us is Bearish. Not because the market is going down, but because the structure of the market is Bearish.

The charts below make the case for neither scenario, but rather presents both as possibilities and indicated important levels to my analysis. As the market unfolds, more information will be welcome and useful in projecting the intermediate-term path of ES. The first chart is the Weekly Big Picture. It’s primary use is to give us an overarching view of the market so we don’t get lost among the trees. The second chart is more relevant to our trading on Monday. Sometimes I learn more when my projection is not followed by the market. It tells me to reconsider my opinions.

The Weekly chart below shows general paths that are possible for ES. Because I am short-term Bullish for Monday’s trading, I favor the short red arrow up for Monday. The next chart shows the possibilities for the short-term.

The next chart is more relevant to our trading on Monday. Be sure and review recent posts, since many are still relevant. I still have, in the back of my head, the 1150 level as a destination which would make a nice right shoulder on the Daily chart. That would be at approximately the 62% retracement level, and ES has already hit the 50% retracement level and reversed. Right now, it looks on the Daily chart like ES wants to make a right shoulder, but had this shoulder beaten with a 2 X 4. As I mention on the chart, the 1150 level would make for some interesting possibilities ~ Bearish and Bullish. The most notable Bearish indicator is the structure of the rally from the correction low of 1038.50 which looks corrective (overlapping waves). This could be an ABC or an ABCDE. But that doesn’t rule out the possibility that it is simply ES forming a base from which to rally.

We don’t provide a day trading system. I am a probability trader that has modified a system that gives you an opportunity to learn to fish. The value we provide is in understanding setups and managing risks. However, there are times when I will give you a fish and other traders here will do the same. Also, please remember that this is about probabilities, not certainties.

My goal would be an “Elliott Wave for Dummies” curriculum. I love all the “for Dummies” books because they strive to simplify and clarify. They are profoundly simple. The mark of a good teacher IMO is someone who can get the hay down from the loft so the horses can eat it. Many teachers like to complicate their subject matter so they can appear “smart”. I have no use for insecurity in teachers.

The old saying that “it’s better to teach someone to fish than give them a fish” is never more true than in teaching.

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Dr. John Trapp a.k.a. Mortie for Value of Perfect Information who offer stock market commentary, fundamental & technical analyses on the financial markets. Try MortiES' 30 day free trial.

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