Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

What if the Chinese Let the Renminbi Float and Nothing Much Happened?

Currencies / China Currency Yuan Jun 22, 2010 - 01:55 AM GMT

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced Saturday night that it would gradually relax the peg between the renminbi and a basket of currencies (primarily the U.S. dollar). This is the resumption of a policy the PBOC had initiated in mid 2005 and suspended in mid 2008. Although there are political motivations for the resumption of a controlled renminbi float - to deflect scapegoating at the upcoming Toronto G-20 confab and to get Senator Schumer off the backs of Chinese officials - there is a domestic economic motivation as well.


With credit inflation resulting in real estate price inflation, the PBOC needs to be able to pursue a more independent monetary policy. Pegging the yuan to the greenback can result in pegging PBOC policy to Fed policy. The Fed may not be ready to tighten monetary conditions, but the PBOC is.

Scapegoaters are fond of ascribing trade "imbalances" to the PBOC's currency-pegging policy. But it is not clear that the PBOC has been doing all that much "pegging" in recent years. As discussed in an April 5, 2010 Global Daily Commentary, "Guess Hu's Coming to Dinner at the White House," the behavior of the PBOC's balance sheet does not suggest as much currency intervention as the scapegoaters would lead you to believe. And if the renminbi is not being all that constrained in seeking its market-determined level vs. the dollar, then we might not expect much in the way of reversals in trade "imbalances."

A test case for this is what happened to the U.S. trade deficit with China when the PBOC last allowed a controlled float in the renminbi, between mid 2005 and mid 2008. The largest year-over-year percent appreciation in the renminbi vs. the dollar was 9.8% in July 2008. What was happening to the U.S. trade deficit with China as the renminbi was appreciating? A peak at Chart 1 shows that the trade deficit in dollars was getting wider until the end of 2008. J-curve effect, you say? If it takes more dollars to buy one renminbi, then the dollar-value of the U.S. trade deficit with China might widen. I do not have Chinese bilateral trade data in renminbi, but I do have the overall Chinese trade data in renminbi, as shown in Chart 2. Did the Chinese trade surplus valued in renminbi narrow as the renminbi appreciated vs. the U.S. dollar between mid 2005 and mid 2008? Yes, a little in the first four months of 2008. But nothing to get too excited about.


Now, I do believe that the rate of increase in China's trade surplus will be slowing in the coming years, but not primarily because of an appreciating renminbi. But rather because rising incomes among Chinese households will lead to increased discretionary spending by them. Also, in order to keep the population relatively happy, Chinese politicians will re-allocate government spending more toward services and infrastructure spending to benefit households rather than export industries. Chart 3 suggests that the Chinese economy's recent re-accelerated growth has not been powered as much by exports as in the past.

by Paul Kasriel

Paul Kasriel is the recipient of the 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecasting Accuracy

by Paul Kasriel
The Northern Trust Company
Economic Research Department - Daily Global Commentary

Copyright © 2010 Paul Kasriel
Paul joined the economic research unit of The Northern Trust Company in 1986 as Vice President and Economist, being named Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research in 2000. His economic and interest rate forecasts are used both internally and by clients. The accuracy of the Economic Research Department's forecasts has consistently been highly-ranked in the Blue Chip survey of about 50 forecasters over the years. To that point, Paul received the prestigious 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005.

The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.

Paul L. Kasriel Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

gAnton
22 Jun 10, 17:39
Unintended Consequences

Obama is frantically trying to create jobs, but it's a doomed enterprise. US labor is simply not competitive on the world market. Probably the next step will be some form of protectionism, but it's much too late for that to work, and the principal effects will be to isolate the US economy and further damage the "world currency" status of the US dollar.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in