Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Dollargeddon - Gold Price to Soar Above $6,000 - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Is Gold Price On Verge Of A Bottom, See For Yourself - Chris_Vermeulen
3.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors - P_Radomski_CFA
5.Why The Uranium Price Must Go Up - Richard_Mills
6.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Jim Rogers on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Blockchain’s “Spectacular Future” - GoldCore
8.More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
9.It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey - Steve_H_Hanke
10.Fiat Currency Inflation, And Collapse Insurance - Raymond_Matison
Last 7 days
Golden Sunsets in the Land of U.S. Dollar Hegemony - 20th Sep 18
5 Things to Keep in Mind When Buying a Luxury Car in Dubai - 20th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 20th Sep 18
The Stealth Reason Why the Stock Market Keeps On Rising - 20th Sep 18
Sheffield School Applications Crisis Eased by New Secondary Schools Places - 20th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - 19th Sep 18
US Dollar Head & Shoulders Triggered. What's Next? - 19th Sep 18
Prepare for the Stock Market’s Volatility to Increase - 19th Sep 18
The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - 19th Sep 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport 'Approved Used' Bad Paint Job - Inchcape Chester - 19th Sep 18
Are Technology and FANG Stocks Bottoming? - 18th Sep 18
Predictive Trading Model Suggests Falling Stock Prices During US Elections - 18th Sep 18
Lehman Brothers Financial Collapse - Ten Years Later - 18th Sep 18
Financial Crisis Markets Reality Check Now in Progress - 18th Sep 18
Gold’s Ultimate Confirmation - 18th Sep 18
Omanization: a 20-year Process to Fight Volatile Oil Prices  - 18th Sep 18
Sheffield Best Secondary Schools Rankings and Trend Trajectory for Applications 2018 - 18th Sep 18
Gold / US Dollar Inverse Correlation - 17th Sep 18
The Apple Story - Trump Tariffs Penalize US Multinationals - 17th Sep 18
Wall Street Created Financial Crash Catastrophe Ten Years Later - 17th Sep 18
Trade Wars Are Going To Crash This Stock Market - 17th Sep 18
Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - 17th Sep 18
Financial Markets Macro/Micro View: Waves and Cycles - 17th Sep 18
Stock Market Bulls Prevail – for Now! - 17th Sep 18
GBPUSD Set to Explode Higher - 17th Sep 18
The China Threat - Global Crisis Hot Spots & Pressure Points - 17th Sep 18 - Jim_Willie_CB
Silver's Relationship with Gold Reaching Historical Extremes - 16th Sep 18
Emerging Markets to Follow and Those to Avoid - 16th Sep 18
Investing - Look at the Facts to Find the Truth - 16th Sep 18
Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - 15th Sep 18
Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - 15th Sep 18
Trading The Global Future - Bad Consequences - 15th Sep 18
Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - 15th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - 14th Sep 18
Growing Number of Small Businesses Opening – and Closing – In the UK - 14th Sep 18
Gold Price Trend Analysis - Video - 14th Sep 18
Esports Is Exploding—Here’s 3 Best Stocks to Profit From - 13th Sep 18
The Four Steel Men Behind Trump’s Trade War - 13th Sep 18
How Trump Tariffs Could Double America’s Trade Losses - 13th Sep 18
Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - 13th Sep 18
Trading Cryptocurrencies: To Win, You Must Know Where You're Wrong - 13th Sep 18
Gold, Silver, and USD Index - Three Important “Nothings” - 13th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector On a Long-term SELL Signal - 13th Sep 18
Does Gambling Regulation Work - A Case Study - 13th Sep 18
The Ritual Burial of the US Constitution - 12th Sep 18
Stock Market Final Probe Higher ... Then the PANIC! - 12th Sep 18
Gold Nuggets And Silver Bullets - 12th Sep 18
Bitcoin Trading - SEC Strikes Again - 12th Sep 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

Gold Stock Fundamentals Now versus 2008

Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks Jun 11, 2010 - 12:36 PM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

Escalating sovereign debt problems in Europe has prompted some to wonder if another “Lehman” type collapse is on the horizon. As a result, some precious metals observers have grown cautious, fearing a replay of the events of two years ago. While it is always prudent to be cautious with an extremely volatile sector like the gold stocks, the facts illustrate major differences between their fundamentals now and in 2008.


Most notably, the real price of Gold is rising. The real price of gold tends to lead the HUI/Gold ratio and it also provides a positive omen for the gold stocks. We’ve noted in past missives how a simple analysis of Gold/Oil and Gold/Industrial Metals can provide an indication of the future direction in HUI/Gold. As you can see from the chart, the recent soft panic has spurred Gold much higher against both Oil and Industrial Metals.

What is intriguing is that deflation is the catalyst for gold stocks while inflation is actually not a positive for gold stocks. The reason is that in a time of deflationary forces, Gold will rise relative to mining costs such as labor, oil and industrial related costs. Hence, gold stocks performed well from 1931 to 1935, in the 1960s, 2000-2006 and recently in the last 18 months. When inflation hits the economy, it eventually cuts into margins of gold companies. Gold was rising in 2007 and 2008 but high oil prices, a very weak US Dollar and economic demand contributed to rising costs.

Moreover, it’s important to note the differences between a credit crunch in the economy and a sovereign credit crunch. A credit crunch in the economy, as we experienced in 2008 tends to significantly impact risk assets such as stocks and commodities. A credit crunch amongst governments has the most impact on bonds and currencies. Gold and Silver, as currencies, will benefit. Hence, in the last few months, even with downward pressure on most markets, Gold has risen while the leveraged Gold plays (mining stocks and Silver) have held up quite well, unlike in 2008.

Going forward, the macro forces will continue to support the gold stocks for at least a few years. As we’ve written in the past, there is little reason to think Gold won’t continue to outperform in the next few years. This means that the gold and silver stocks have an even brighter future ahead.

Unfortunately too many mainstream investors are too scared of the gold stocks to take advantage of the potential massive gains in the years ahead. Hence, we created a service that provides professional support and guidance so that traders and investors can better navigate what lies ahead. Consider a free no risk 14-day trial, which entitles you to our most recent and future updates. 

Good luck ahead!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
http://www.trendsman.com
http://www.thedailygold.com
trendsmanresearch@gmail.com

Trendsman” is an affiliate member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and is enrolled in their CMT Program, which certifies professionals in the field of technical analysis. He will be taking the final exam in Spring 07. Trendsman focuses on technical analysis but analyzes fundamentals and investor psychology in tandem with the charts. He credits his success to an immense love of the markets and an insatiable thirst for knowledge and profits.


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules