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Positive Session for the Stock Market Bulls

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Jun 04, 2010 - 02:39 AM GMT

By: Harry_Boxer


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe stock market indices managed to eek out a gain at the end of the day today, only because of a late afternoon rally.

The day started out on the plus side and then sold off in a 3-wave decline by midday, reaching the session lows at that point. When further downside was unable to be attained, the indices tried the upside, tested the declining topslines, backed off there, but came on again and blew through them with a couple hours to go. They then stair-stepped their way higher near the afternoon highs at the close to put the indices back in the plus column.

At the end of the day, the Dow was up just 5.74 at 10.255.28, the S&P 500 up 4.45 at 1102.83, and the Nasdaq 100, however, was up 16.07 at 1895.66.

Advance-declines today were very positive by about 19 to 11 on the New York Stock Exchange, and by about 8 to 5 on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 7 to 4 positive on New York on total volume of 1.2 billion. Nasdaq traded 2.1 billion shares and had about a 3 to 1 positive ratio.

Our Charts of the Day:

Aruba Networks, Inc. (ARUN), a new one we've been watching, broke out today. After dropping and forming a kind of head-and-shoulders bottom, this stock turned around and broke through the April and late May highs today, jumping 40 cents on 3.8 million shares with thrusts in On-Balance Volume. This one may reach 15 1/2, and then gets started toward the 18.00 range.

Quest Software Inc. (QSFT) made a new 8-year high today, breaking out across multiple tops. You can see on the chart the 8-year base pattern, which can support a very big move. The significance of today's action is that it broke out of a little consolidation pattern it's been in, and then it jumped 76 cents, or nearly 4%, today. Volume and technicals are starting to accelerate. Ultimately, I look for this stock to make a move in to the mid-20s, then low 30s and more.

Transocean Ltd. (RIG) has gotten battered by 50% in the last 6 weeks. Long-term support was hit yesterday and it bounced. Today it took off, snapped back 2.71, and closed just pennies off the high for the day on 29 million shares. I suspect that just based on the simple Fibonacci Retracement it could get this stock to the 60-63 zone, my short-term trading target.

Westport Innovations Inc. (WPRT), a new portfolio position, which three times in the last couple weeks has held the 13.40 zone, snapped back with a vengeance yesterday, backed off in the morning, and then came on strong to close right at resistance. A break through here, around 17.30, and I'm looking for a move that takes this up toward the 20-20 1/2 zone. Beyond that something in the low to mid-20s may be doable.

Reviewing our watchboard: board was mostly up today. Leading the way was Google Inc. (GOOG), up 12.23 to 505.60. Transocean Ltd. (RIG), mentioned above, jumped 2.76 and closed at 51.11 on 29 million shares. Coinstar Inc. (CSTR), one of our current favorites, was up 2.77 at 57.83, and Inc. (AMZN) gained 2.45 at 128.76.

Among other gainers of note, Xyratex Ltd. (XRTX) advanced 59 cents to 16.30, Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (SOLF) 53 cents to 7.50, RINO International Corporation (RINO) 62 cents to 13.23, Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) 66 cents to 15.08, and Brigham Exploration Co. (BEXP) 59 cents to 18.48 in a firm oil group.

In addition, Mindspeed Technologies Inc. (MSPD) jumped 60 cents to 9.65, Cree Inc. (CREE) 85 cents to 68.22, Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS) 35 cents to 14.93, Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) 68 cents to 76.66, and China Automotive Systems Inc. (CAAS) 45 cents to 18.94.

ETFs were very narrowly mixed today, with the Direxion Daily Emrg Mkts Bear 3X Shares (EDZ) up just 55 cents to 48.23, while the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) dropped 47 cents to 28.40.

Other losses of note, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) could not get in the plus column and was off 79 cents at 144.04. Delcath Systems Inc. (DCTH) backed off 41 cents at 15.54, and Apple Inc. (AAPL) lost 83 cents to 263.12.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were up at the opening, backed off in a 3-wave decline in the morning, and then stair-stepped their way higher in the afternoon to close not far off the session highs. Positive day for the bulls and the rally off the lows extended itself today nominally.

Good trading!


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Mr. Boxer's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Boxer's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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