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Strong Three-Wave Rally Closes Stock Indices Near Session Highs

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Jun 03, 2010 - 04:13 AM GMT

By: Harry_Boxer


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe stock market indices rocketed higher today after an early morning dip in a strong 3-wave rally. The indices had a superior turnaround session as earlier losses were wiped with a strong morning rally. They did get a midday pullback to test intraday support and then turned it around for the sharpest rally of the day in the last hour and a half. In the last 10--15 minutes they spiked up into the close and finished right near the session highs going away.

Net on the day, the Dow closed just under 10,250, up 225.52 at 10,249.54. The S&P 500 was up 27.67 at 1098.38, just pennies off its high, and the Nasdaq 100 had a very sharp gain of 44.55 at 1879.59, right at the high for the day going away.

Advance-declines were very positive today by about 5 1/2 to 1 positive on the New York Stock Exchange, and 4 to 1 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was more than 20 to 1 positive with more than 1 1/4 billion to the upside and only 63 million to the downside. Nasdaq had 1.955 billion up, 214 million down with about a 9 to 1 positive ratio on total volume of just under 2.2 billion shares today.

Our Charts of the Day:

Akorn Inc. (AKRX) had a breakout in April from a base, followed by a little consolidation, a pop to secondary resistance, and then a consolidation for about 3-4 weeks. It's starting to edge out now above the trading range with a target right up around the 4.00 level coming up potentially.

Coinstar Inc. (CSTR), which broke out at the end of April, reached a new high in the 57 range, before the stock backed off. It is now coiling narrowly and quietly, but today surged 2.03. It may be breaking out of the apex of that coil at around 55. If it does, I'm looking for a move that could take it to the mid-60s, about another 10 points from where it is now. Corp. (LOCM) had a big day today, popping 84 cents, or 11%, with a breakaway gap that took out the 10-, 21- and 50-day moving averages in one fell swoop. There is overhead resistance, which it backed away from today, up around the 8.80-.85 area. A move through that zone could get this stock up around 9 1/2-10, the short-term trading target, but ultimately the top of the channel beckons around the 14 level.

Uroplasty Inc. (UPI), a portfolio position, jumped 13 cents, or 2 1/2%, today, but certainly appears to be coming out of the apex of the coil that it's in. Target on this is 7 1/4 - 7 1/2 short-term, a couple points from where it is at right now.

Reviewing our watchboard: board was nearly all green, with just a couple of small fractional losers today other than the ultra-shorts, of course. Leading the way, Google Inc. (GOOG) was up 11.00 at 493.37, Cree Inc. (CREE) 2.00 at 67.37, Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) 2.42 at 75.98, Apple Inc. (AAPL) 3.12 at 263.95, and Inc. (AMZN) 3.07 at 126.31.

In the generally strong junior oil group, Brigham Exploration Co. (BEXP) jumped 1.49 to 17.89, and Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) was up 1.07 at 14.42.

Among other gainers of note, Acme Packet, Inc. (APKT) was up 98 cents at 28.58, China Automotive Systems Inc. (CAAS) 89 cents to 18.49, Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) 75 cents at 43.16, Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) 1.23 to 24.25, NetApp, Inc. (NTAP) 1.33 at 38.95, Valassis Communications Inc. (VCI) 84 cents at 35.36, Xyratex Ltd. (XRTX) 64 cents at 15.71, and VIVUS Inc. (VVUS) 60 cents at 12.80.

In addition, RINO International Corporation (RINO) jumped 69 cents at 12.61, portfolio position L & L Energy, Inc. (LLEN) 47 cents at 9.12, Delcath Systems Inc. (DCTH) 41 cents at 15.95, Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS) 45 cents at 14.58, and China Agritech Inc. (CAGC) 55 cents at 12.30.

On the downside, the ultrashorts got hammered, with the Direxion Daily Emrg Mkts Bear 3X Shares (EDZ) down 5.52 to 47.68, the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) 1.32 to 28.87, the Direxion Daily Large Cap Bear 3X Shares (BGZ) 1.27 to 15.48, and the Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) 1.32 to 14.60.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were down early, but then had a strong 3-wave rally that closed near the session highs going away and at the highest levels reached on this snapback by the Nasdaq 100, just underneath the 1880 level. The S&P 500 fell a little bit short of its recent highs, which were around 1103, closing at 1098.56, but nevertheless a strong session.

The 3-day declining channel was broken with authority late in the session to complete what looks like a narrow bullish head-and-shoulders bottoming type pattern on the S&P 500, in particular. Strong overhead resistance around the 1103 range will be closely monitored tomorrow to see if they can break out and extend, with further resistance up in the 1118-20 zone ahead of us.

Good trading!


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Mr. Boxer's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Boxer's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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