Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
The State of the Financial Union - 18th Aug 19
The Nuts and Bolts: Yield Inversion Says Recession is Coming But it May take 24 months - 18th Aug 19
Markets August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow – Are You Ready? - 18th Aug 19
JOHNSON AND JOHNSON - JNJ for Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing - 17th Aug 19
Negative Bond Market Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Stock Market Leadership - 17th Aug 19
Is Stock Market About to Crash? Three Charts That Suggest It’s Possible - 17th Aug 19
It’s Time For Colombia To Dump The Peso - 17th Aug 19
Gold & Silver Stand Strong amid Stock Volatility & Falling Rates - 16th Aug 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Fundamentals - 16th Aug 19
Silver, Transports, and Dow Jones Index At Targets – What Direct Next? - 16th Aug 19
When the US Bond Market Bubble Blows Up! - 16th Aug 19
Dark days are closing in on Apple - 16th Aug 19
Precious Metals Gone Wild! Reaching Initial Targets – Now What’s Next - 16th Aug 19
US Government Is Beholden To The Fed; And Vice-Versa - 15th Aug 19
GBP vs USD Forex Pair Swings Into Focus Amid Brexit Chaos - 15th Aug 19
US Negative Interest Rates Go Mainstream - With Some Glaring Omissions - 15th Aug 19
GOLD BULL RUN TREND ANALYSIS - 15th Aug 19
US Stock Market Could Fall 12% to 25% - 15th Aug 19
A Level Exam Results School Live Reaction Shock 2019! - 15th Aug 19
It's Time to Get Serious about Silver - 15th Aug 19
The EagleFX Beginners Guide – Financial Markets - 15th Aug 19
Central Banks Move To Keep The Global Markets Party Rolling – Part III - 14th Aug 19
You Have to Buy Bonds Even When Interest Rates Are Low - 14th Aug 19
Gold Near Term Risk is Increasing - 14th Aug 19
Installment Loans vs Personal Bank Loans - 14th Aug 19
ROCHE - RHHBY Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing - 14th Aug 19
Gold Bulls Must Love the Hong Kong Protests - 14th Aug 19
Gold, Markets and Invasive Species - 14th Aug 19
Cannabis Stocks With Millennial Appeal - 14th Aug 19
August 19 (Crazy Ivan) Stock Market Event Only A Few Days Away - 13th Aug 19
This is the real move in gold and silver… it’s going to be multiyear - 13th Aug 19
Global Central Banks Kick Can Down The Road Again - 13th Aug 19
US Dollar Finally the Achillles Heel - 13th Aug 19
Financial Success Formula Failure - 13th Aug 19
How to Test Your Car Alternator with a Multimeter - 13th Aug 19
London Under Attack! Victoria Embankment Gardens Statues and Monuments - 13th Aug 19
More Stock Market Weakness Ahead - 12th Aug 19
Global Central Banks Move To Keep The Party Rolling Onward - 12th Aug 19
All Eyes On Copper - 12th Aug 19
History of Yield Curve Inversions and Gold - 12th Aug 19
Precious Metals Soar on Falling Yields, Currency Turmoil - 12th Aug 19
Why GraphQL? The Benefits Explained - 12th Aug 19
Is the Stock Market Making a V-shaped Recovery? - 11th Aug 19
Precious Metals and Stocks VIX Are About To Pull A “Crazy Ivan” - 11th Aug 19
Social Media Civil War - 11th Aug 19
Gold and the Bond Yield Continuum - 11th Aug 19
Traders: Which Markets Should You Trade? - 11th Aug 19
US Corporate Debt Is at Risk of a Flash Crash - 10th Aug 19
EURODOLLAR futures above 2016 highs: FED to cut over 100 bps quickly - 10th Aug 19
Market’s flight-to-safety: Should You Buy Stocks Now? - 10th Aug 19
The Cold, Hard Math Tells Netflix Stock Could Crash 70% - 10th Aug 19
Our Custom Index Charts Suggest Stock Markets Are In For A Wild Ride - 9th Aug 19
Bitcoin Price Triggers Ahead - 9th Aug 19
Walmart Is Coming for Amazon - 9th Aug 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

Euro Tarp Bailout, Here We Go Again

Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets May 14, 2010 - 02:52 AM GMT

By: Richard_Shaw

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe nearly $1 Trillion bailout by Europe of Greece and whichever countries come next, is like an echo of the US TARP rescue of banks in 2008. It is similar in size, similar in its intention to save the banks from their own bad decisions, similar in making taxpayers eventually pay for the mistakes of the banks, and perhaps similar in other outcomes. One outcome that should be noted is that the US and world stock markets continued to fall for several months after TARP. That pattern may repeat. We need to be prepared for that possibility.


"Euro-TARP" is no more than an agreement to do something, but little has actually yet been done. The terms and conditions of actually doing something are not fully known to most investors. The terms may involve fiscal actions by the Greek and other governments that those governments may or may not implement. The populations, particularly union populations, and perhaps far left political groups, may become disruptive of the economy over their dislike of those fiscal actions that are implemented (certainly burning banks, causing death of innocent bank workers last week proves that sort of thing is possible).

So let's not declare an "all clear" just quite yet. That "all clear" will come eventually, but is is hard to believe that a last minute weekend announcement is the end of the crisis. It needs time to mature as a situation.

Let's also not discount the possibility that Monday's strong market rally was substantially a continuing short covering rally after the gift to short sellers provided by the markets on Thursday.

Here is what Mohamed El-Erian, the chief executive of Pimco said Sunday night:

"... policymakers have shifted to a “whatever it takes” approach to crisis management. ... [questions about the bailout] its immediate impact, its durability, and the potential range of unintended consequences. Many questions will need to be answered. They range from the operational (how will all these interventions be approved, financed and executed), to the conceptual (what does this mean for institutional integrity), to effectiveness (will the liquidity injection be used to support fiscal consolidation or end up deferring it). ... We are now in uncharted waters when it comes to how all this will impact the secular workings and make-up of the euro zone."

This is what David Rosenburg of Gluskin Sheff had to say today:

"In my opinion, Greece is the same canary in the coal mine that Thailand was for emerging Asia in 1997, which ultimately led to the Russian debt default and demise of LTCM; the same canary in the coal mine that New Century Financial in early 2007 proved to be in terms of being a leading indicator for the likes of Bear Stearns and Lehman. So, the most dangerous thing to do now is to view Greece as a one-off crisis that will be contained. Even with this new and aggressive EU-IMF financing arrangement that has managed to trigger a wild short covering rally yesterday, the risks are still high that the contagion spreads to countries like Portugal, Spain, Italy and even the U.K., which has already received some warnings from the major rating agencies and is gripped with political gridlock in the aftermath of last week’s uncertain election results."

Here are charts of the Greek stock market for 3 years and 3 months --- bad:

Here are charts of the European stock markets for 3 years and 3 months -- rolling over:

Our Tactical Decision:

European exposure is part of our long-term asset allocation plan. However, we'd say stay away for now. We've been out for months. VGK and Europe stocks funds similar to it began to roll over last October.

The price is below the 200-day average. The 100-day average is about to make a negative cross of the 200-day average. The simple visual pattern of the price chart is down hard for about a month, and despite the rally yesterday, prices now (mid-day May 11) are essentially flat with the day before the big dive last week -- and back then the chart was unfavorable.

Because our philosophy is to own fundamentally attractive securities that are also in an upward trend, we probably wouldn't own Europe for a good while. Given its behavior since October, we'll wait for 53 as one sign that VGK has surmounted its major obstacles.

Of course, if VGK goes low enough, we will have a new entry price that is below 53, but right now its too close in both time and price to a many months long period of sideways to down movement with a fairly visible ceiling in the general 49-51 range.

On the fundamental side, we want to see how Euro-TARP plays out, before we risk precious assets on this sick puppy.

Holdings Disclosure: As of May 11, 2010, we do not have current positions in any securities discussed in this document in any managed account.

By Richard Shaw  http://www.qvmgroup.com

Richard Shaw leads the QVM team as President of QVM Group. Richard has extensive investment industry experience including serving on the board of directors of two large investment management companies, including Aberdeen Asset Management (listed London Stock Exchange) and as a charter investor and director of Lending Tree ( download short professional profile ). He provides portfolio design and management services to individual and corporate clients. He also edits the QVM investment blog. His writings are generally republished by SeekingAlpha and Reuters and are linked to sites such as Kiplinger and Yahoo Finance and other sites. He is a 1970 graduate of Dartmouth College.

Copyright 2006-2010 by QVM Group LLC All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Do your own due diligence.

Richard Shaw Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules