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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Rising Steel Demand Support Our 2010 Price Predictions for Molybdenum, Manganese & Magnesium

Commodities / Metals & Mining May 02, 2010 - 06:17 AM GMT

By: Anthony_David

Commodities

The Economics Committee of the World Steel Association met in Beijing last month and released a short-range outlook for 2010 and 2011. Daniel Novegil, Chairman of the Economics Committee said, “The world steel industry now seems firmly set on a path to recovery. The emerging economies, who in total maintained positive growth through the crisis, will continue to show strong growth, driving world steel demand in the future, however the current recovery in the major developed economies is slower and the projected steel demand for them in 2011 is well below the 2007 level.”


China’s apparent use of steel in 2010 could climb higher than 579 million metric tonnes (mmt) although 2011 could see a slower growth and use is likely to hover around 595 mmt. China is expected to account for 45.5% of the world’s apparent steel use in 2011. India’s steel demand is expected to increase by 13.9% and 13.7% in 2010 and 2011, respectively, given that the country’s steel demand showed steady growth during the economic downturn. The CIS region, which saw steel demand fall by 28.2% in 2009, is expected to see an upward trend with demand growing by 11% in 2011 and 8% in 2011. The BRIC nations as a whole are expected to see a rise of 8% during 2010 in the use of steel and 4.1% in 2011.

With iron ore pricing arrangements between ore miners and steel makers set to change from annual contracts to quarterly contracts, steel prices are poised to rise. March saw the average steel price increase by 3.3% and by 24% over the lowest price reported in May 2009. Steel prices are at the highest now since August 2008 when Lehmans collapsed. BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale, the three global giants of iron ore mining, are expected to benefit tremendously from the new pricing policy. Profits of the three companies are likely to be boosted by a minimum of $5 billion this year.

The rising demand for steel is creating a pressure on the supply chains as well. Chinese firms are reportedly rushing to fund and buy out small molybdenum producers worldwide in an effort to lower their steel production costs. With an inventory of over 45,000 mt, China currently accounts for 22% of the global molybdenum stock.

On March 5th, 2010 in Our First Post We Predicted for 2010:
Molybdenum – At least $20 USD/lb by end of year.
Manganese – Continued rise in Electrolytic prices.
Magnesium – Prices should begin to strengthen in 2010.

By Anthony David

http://www.criticalstrategicmetals.com

The mission of the Critical Strategic Metals Web Site

is to serve as a monthly compass for those who take a fundamental view of investment regarding the Molybdenum, Manganese and Magnesium metals markets, are concerned with the emerging critical under-supply of these strategic metals to Western nations and wish to profitability chart their course. Each month we will research and provide, in as short and concise a manner as possible, the most applicable information available on resources that will have the biggest impact on our day to day lives. Click here to sign-up for our FREE monthly report

© 2010 Copyright  Anthony David- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Masood Akram
30 Jul 10, 01:21
International Steel Prices

i need the trend for steel price from fiscal year 2005 to 2010,


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