Everyday this week (so far) the USD has climbed against the Yen. Today's action, in particular, is impressive because the USD has climbed, hurdled and sustained above its prior significant recovery rally peak at 93.78, which was established in Jan. The fact that the USD is so relatively strong vis-à-vis the Yen likely reflects the perceived and actual strengthening of the US economy compared with Japan. Tomorrow's Employment data (non-farm payrolls) could provide the catalyst for another thrust in USD/Yen.

Then again, perhaps this week's climb already has anticipated an outsized uptick in addition to payrolls? If I defer to my daily and weelly technical work, then I must hold my long UltraShort Yen ETF (YCS) position (from 19.49) to reach the potential 98.00-100.00 in the USD. If the technical work proves accurate, then it is "warning" us that US economic data - Employment included - will begin to surprise on the upside in the days and weeks to come.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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