Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
US Presidential Election Forecast Matrix, Stock Market Uncertainty - 29th Oct 20
Stock Market Turning? Look For These Support Levels - 29th Oct 20
Silver: A Conceivable Dead-Cat-Bounce on the Cards - 29th Oct 20
Stocks are Strong but be Aware of this Continuing Pattern - 29th Oct 20
The Most Profitable Way To Play The Gold Boom - 29th Oct 20
Why You Should Hire An Accountant To Complete Your Tax Return - 29th Oct 20
Global Banking: Some Sectors Look as "Precarious as Ever" - 28th Oct 20
Silver Price Minor Dip Possible Before 2nd Major Upleg Starts - 28th Oct 20
�� How to Carve a Simple and Scary Pumpkin Face for Covid Halloween 2020 �� - 28th Oct 20
Gold Price One Last Dip Likely Then Major Upleg to New Highs - 28th Oct 20
Smart Money Is Going All-In On This New Gold Frontier - 28th Oct 20
Gold Stocks Still Correcting - 27th Oct 20
Gold and Crypto: Is This How Charts Look Before A Monetary Collapse? - 27th Oct 20
Silver's Coming Double Trigger Shotgun Price Explosion - 27th Oct 20
The $126 Billion Gold Opportunity in Australia - 27th Oct 20
Tips to Breeze through Your Spanish Classes Online - 27th Oct 20
Try The “Compounding Capital Gains” Strategy Today - 26th Oct 20
UK Coronavirus Broken Test and Trace System, 5 Days for Covid-19 Results! - 26th Oct 20
How the Coronavirus is Exacerbating Global Inequality, Hunger - 26th Oct 20
The Top Gold Stock for 2021 - 26th Oct 20
Corporate Earnings Season: Here's What Stock Investors Need to Know - 25th Oct 20
�� Halloween 2020 TESCO Supermarkes Shoppers Covid Panic Buying! �� - 25th Oct 20
Three Unstoppable Forces Set to Drive Silver Prices - 25th Oct 20
Car Insurance And Insurance Claims and Options - 25th Oct 20
Best Pressure Washer Review - Karcher K7 Full Control Unboxing - 25th Oct 20
Further Gold Price Pressure as the USDX Is About to Rally - 23rd Oct 20
Nasdaq Retests 11,735 Support - 23rd Oct 20
America’s Political and Financial Institutions Are Broken - 23rd Oct 20
Sayonara U.S.A. - 23rd Oct 20
Economic Contractions Overshadow ASEAN-6 Recovery - 23rd Oct 20
Doji Clusters Show Clear Support Ranges for Stock Market S&P500 Index - 23rd Oct 20
Silver Market - 22nd Oct 20
Goldman Sachs Likes Silver; Trump Wants Even More Stimulus - 22nd Oct 20
Hacking Wall Street to Close the Wealth Gap - 22nd Oct 20
Natural Gas/UNG Stepping GAP Patterns Suggest Pending Upside Breakout - 22nd Oct 20 -
NVIDIA CANCELS RTX 3070 16b RTX 3080 20gb GPU's Due to GDDR6X Memory Supply Issues - 22nd Oct 20
Zafira B Leaking Water Under Car - 22nd Oct 20
The Copper/Gold Ratio Would Change the Macro - 21st Oct 20
Are We Entering Stagflation That Will Boost Gold Price - 21st Oct 20
Crude Oil Price Stalls In Resistance Zone - 21st Oct 20
High-Profile Billionaire Gives Urgent Message to Stock Investors - 21st Oct 20
What's it Like to be a Budgie - Unique in a Cage 4K VR 360 - 21st Oct 20
Auto Trading: A Beginner Guide to Automation in Forex - 21st Oct 20
Gold Price Trend Forecast into 2021, Is Intel Dying?, Can Trump Win 2020? - 20th Oct 20
Gold Asks Where Is The Inflation - 20th Oct 20
Last Chance for this FREE Online Trading Course Worth $129 value - 20th Oct 20
More Short-term Stock Market Weakness Ahead - 20th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 32 Inch Curved Gaming Monitor Unboxing and Stand Assembly and Range of Movement - 20th Oct 20
Best Retail POS Software In Australia - 20th Oct 20
From Recession to an Ever-Deeper One - 19th Oct 20
Wales Closes Border With England, Stranded Motorists on Severn Bridge? Covid-19 Police Road Blocks - 19th Oct 20
Commodity Bull Market Cycle Starts with Euro and Dollar Trend Changes - 19th Oct 20
Stock Market Melt-Up Triggered a Short Squeeze In The NASDAQ and a Utilities Breakout - 19th Oct 20
Silver is Like Gold on Steroids - 19th Oct 20
Countdown to Election Mediocrity: Why Gold and Silver Can Protect Your Wealth - 19th Oct 20
“Hypergrowth” Is Spilling Into the Stock Market Like Never Before - 19th Oct 20
Is Oculus Quest 2 Good Upgrade for Samsung Gear VR Users? - 19th Oct 20
Low US Dollar Risky for Gold - 17th Oct 20
US 2020 Election: Are American's ready for Trump 2nd Term Twilight Zone Presidency? - 17th Oct 20
Custom Ryzen 5950x, 5900x, 5800x , RTX 3080, 3070 64gb DDR4 Gaming PC System Build Specs - 17th Oct 20
Gold Jumps above $1,900 Again - 16th Oct 20
US Economic Recovery Is in Need of Some Rescue - 16th Oct 20
Why You Should Focus on Growth Stocks Today - 16th Oct 20
Why Now is BEST Time to Upgrade Your PC System for Years - Ryzen 5000 CPUs, Nvidia RTX 3000 GPU's - 16th Oct 20
Beware of Trump’s October (November?) Election Surprise - 15th Oct 20
Stock Market SPY Retesting Critical Resistance From Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc - 15th Oct 20
Fed Chairman Begs Congress to Stimulate Beleaguered US Economy - 15th Oct 20
Is Gold Market Going Back Into the 1970s? - 15th Oct 20
Things you Should know before Trade Cryptos - 15th Oct 20
Gold and Silver Price Ready For Another Rally Attempt - 14th Oct 20
Do Low Interest Rates Mean Higher Stocks? Not so Fast… - 14th Oct 20
US Debt Is Going Up but Leaving GDP Behind - 14th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 31.5 Inch VA Gaming Monitor Amazon Prime Day Bargain Price! But WIll it Get Delivered? - 14th Oct 20
Karcher K7 Pressure Washer Amazon Prime Day Bargain 51% Discount! - 14th Oct 20
Top Strategies Day Traders Adopt - 14th Oct 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Stock Market Melting Up, A Different Take

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Mar 31, 2010 - 06:38 PM GMT

By: Guy_Lerner

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOver at the ZeroHedge website, they have a post attributed to Michael Panzer of the Financial Armageddon website entitled: "The Latest Red Flag - The Market's Rate of Melting Up". Here is a different take.

From the Panzer article, I quote: "Based on data going back 90 years, whenever the 12-month rate of change (ROC) in the Dow Jones Industrials Average has exceeded 40 percent, it has generally signaled trouble ahead."


I would disagree with that statement, and to understand why, let's put together a very simple study and replicate Panzer's observations. Like Panzer, our data set is the Dow Jones Industrial Average going back 90 years. I will also use the 12 month rate of change (ROC) indicator, and my strategy is to "buy" the DJIA when the indicator exceeds the 40 percent level. I will sell my position after holding it for exactly 12 months.

Now the purpose isn't to develop a trading strategy, but to show you what happens to the DJIA after the ROC indicator exceeds the 40% level, and the best way to demonstrate my "different take" is through the use of the maximum adverse excursion (MAE) graph. See figure 1.

Figure 1. MAE Graph

MAE assesses each trade from the strategy and determines how much a trade had to lose in percentage terms before being closed out for a winner or loser. You put on a trade and if you are like most traders, the position will move against you. MAE measures how much you have to angst and squirm while you are in that position. Because once you close the position out for a loss or a win, you are done worrying about it. As an example, look at the caret in figure 1 with the blue box around it. This one trade lost 16% (x-axis) before being closed out for a 8% winner (y-axis). We know this was a winning trade because it is a green caret.

So what does the MAE tell us about our strategy of buying the DJIA after the ROC indicator exceeds 40%? We had 12 trades since the 1920's. Two trades had excessive or portfolio ruining draw downs (or MAE's) and these were 1929 and 1987. 7 trades had MAE's less than 6%, and this would be the trades to the left of the blue vertical line. I would consider this a very tolerable draw down especially since 4 of those trades returned over 20% for the 12 month holding period. More importantly, 9 of the 12 trades were winners, and even a moderately excessive MAE of 16% recovered.

I think utilizing the MAE graph and methodology is a much better way to look at the data. Panzer states that on 11 occasions "rapid advances have been followed by notable corrections". This statement doesn't take in to account possible losses or draw downs experienced by the investor. For example, a 10% correction could have occurred after the DJIA had already run up 15% or so. In this instance, the investor would not have suffered a loss of principle despite the correction. Panzer's statement isn't as informative as the MAE graph, which actually shows how much an investor has to angst or squirm because he has lost his principle.

One other graph is worth introducing and this is the maximum favorable excursion graph (MFE). MFE measures how much a trade runs up before being closed out for a loss or a win. See figure 2 for the MFE graph for this strategy, and look at the caret with the blue box. This one trade ran up or had gains of 15% (x-axis) before being closed out for a 9% (y- axis) winner. So this trade gave back 6% before being closed out a winner, and we know this is a winner because of the green caret.

Figure 2. MFE Graph

So what does the MFE graph tell us about this strategy? 8 out of the 12 trades had MFE's of greater than 14%, so at some time over the next 12 months after exceeding a 40% 12 month gain the DJIA ran up some 14% or more from the entry point 75% of the time.

Now, let's focus in on the caret inside the red box. This is the trade from 1929. As it turns out, this trade actually made 31% before being closed out for a 19% loser after experiencing a 33% draw down or MAE. So let me set the record straight on the 1929 Armageddon trade: 1) the ROC indicator exceeded 40%; 2) the DJIA went on to make 31% over the next 9 months; 3) over the following 3 months, the DJIA lost 38%. So what Panzer has left out is the fact that the 1929 trade had a 30% plus run up that the market eventually gave back.

When considering the MFE and MAE graphs and what really happens after the DJIA makes 40% in a year, I would have to disagree with Panzer's assessment. When the ROC indicator exceeds 40%, it doesn't always signal trouble ahead. Even the 1929 trade actually had a 31% gain before being closed out for an 18% loss. If a trader or investor "gives back" that much, they probably should not be in the market in the first place.

I can easily make the argument that a 40% gain in over a year implies strong momentum that is likely to continue. But I won't make that argument, and instead, I will just state that this appears to be what it is: another data point that doesn't provide too much clarity.

By Guy Lerner

http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/

Guy M. Lerner, MD is the founder of ARL Advisers, LLC and managing partner of ARL Investment Partners, L.P. Dr. Lerner utilizes a research driven approach to determine those factors which lead to sustainable moves in the markets. He has developed many proprietary tools and trading models in his quest to outperform. Over the past four years, Lerner has shared his innovative approach with the readers of RealMoney.com and TheStreet.com as a featured columnist. He has been a regular guest on the Money Man Radio Show, DEX-TV, routinely published in the some of the most widely-read financial publications and has been a marquee speaker at financial seminars around the world.

© 2010 Copyright Guy Lerner - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Guy Lerner Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules