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U.S. Economic Recovery Has Stalled, Unemployment Claims at 462,000

Economics / US Economy Mar 11, 2010 - 07:27 PM GMT

By: Mike_Shedlock

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAny economists blaming snow for recent weekly claims reports need to search for additional excuses. Once again, today's numbers appear like reporting in the movie Groundhog Day.


Please consider the Unemployment Weekly Claims Report for March 11, 2010.

In the week ending March 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 462,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 468,000. The 4-week moving average was 475,500, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average of 470,500.

Weekly Unemployment Claims


The weekly claims numbers are volatile so it's best to focus on the trend in the 4-week moving average. That 4-week average has not show any improvement for quite some time.

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims


The 4-week moving average is still near the peak results of the last two recessions. It's important to note those are raw number, not population adjusted. Nonetheless, the numbers do indicate broad weakness.

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims Since 2007


4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims Detail



The 4-week moving average of claims for the last four weeks is about where it was on December 5, 2009. By this measure, the recovery has stalled. For more on jobs, please see Bragging About Census Hiring Starts Already; I'll Take The Under.

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

© 2010 Mike Shedlock, All Rights Reserved.


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