Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" - 10th Jul 20
Prepare for the global impact of US COVID-19 resurgence - 10th Jul 20
Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction - 10th Jul 20
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement - 10th Jul 20
Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION! - 9th Jul 20
Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th Jul 20
Facebook and IBM Tech Stocks for Machine Learning Mega-Trend Investing 2020 - 9th Jul 20
LandRover Discovery Sport Service Blues, How Long Before Oil Change is Actually Due? - 9th Jul 20
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints - 9th Jul 20
Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons - 9th Jul 20
Fintech facilitating huge growth in online gambling - 9th Jul 20
Online Creative Software Development Service Conceptual Approach - 9th Jul 20
Coronavirus Pandemic UK and US Second Waves, and the Influenza Doomsday Scenario - 8th Jul 20
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy - 8th Jul 20
Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond - 8th Jul 20
UK Holidays 2020 - Driving on Cornwall's Narrow Roads to Bude Caravan Holiday Resort - 8th Jul 20
Five Reasons Covid Will Change SEO - 8th Jul 20
What Makes Internet Packages Different? - 8th Jul 20
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

Stock Market Cyclical Bear Should Not Be Feared If You Trade It Correctly!

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Feb 11, 2010 - 05:34 AM GMT

By: David_Banister


Back on January 18th, I wrote an article indicating that all requirements for a market peak had been met. Articles and prior forecasts can be read by clicking HERE.

In my January market forecast, I outlined the sentiment indicators being at the same peak levels last seen in July and October of 2007. In addition, consumer sentiment had rallied up from the March 09 lows, and yet the “Present Situation” sentiment was at decade level lows.  With these factors along with my Elliott Wave patterns peaking, the market peaked on Jan 19th the following day, and has been trending down ever since.  The trend is your friend as they say on Wall Street, but the key is identifying the trend before everyone else rushes into the trade.

A bear cycle is nothing more than a bull chart flipped upside down.  If we are in a bearish cycle for a period of several months as I believe we may be, then you need to change your trading plans accordingly.  Of course investors and traders can still find stocks in an uptrend and attempt to benefit from their continuing rise; we certainly continue to look for those opportunities for my subscribers.  However, with the SP 500 likely to trend down into June to the 910 area according to my views, we are set up much better to consider using the Bear and Bull ETF vehicles for our preferred trading vehicles.

Should the SP 500 continue working it’s way down in an “A-B-C” fashion as I suspect, then we want to hone in on the bear ETF’s that will be climbing in an A B C fashion in order to best profit.  Avoiding single stock risk is wise in a bear cycle, and investing with the leveraged ETF’s is a way to avoid single stock risk and still be on the “right side of the trade”.  You see, the best traders know that it doesn’t pay to be a perma-bear nor a perma-bull.  It pays to be on the right side of the trend, and right now that is obviously down.  Emerging Markets and Small Cap stocks are the most vulnerable to continuing market downside corrections into June.  The paired ETF trades at key pivots for the 3x leveraged funds are EDZ for the bear side, and EDC for the bull side.  In the small cap arena, you are looking at TNA for the Bull side and TZA for the bear side.  My subscribers are profiting from trading the extreme sell-offs and counter-trend rallies by entering either the bull or bear side of these ETF’s at those extremes. 

The advice is not to continue to bang your head against the wall looking for stocks that will fight the normal cyclical corrective downtrend, but instead to focus on ETF’s that you can easily enter into and exit out of, while removing the single stock risk factors that can damage your portfolio.  My forecast since my market top prediction on Jan 18th is for an ABC correction at a minimum to about 900-920 on the SP 500 index. 

This will not happen in a few weeks, more likely 3-5 months or so.  There will be counter-trend bounces along the way, but the general trend will be down.  I had two major buy signals flash in January on the TZA Bearish ETF fund when it crossed over $9.00 a share.  Those signals tell me that the main trend is down until further notice.  Higher than normal cash balances, less trading, and more focus on ETF’s are the recipe we are running with at Active Trading Partners.  Stay cool and calm, and keep a level head.

Dave Banister
Active Trading Partners, LLC

Dave Banister is the Chief Investment Strategist and commentator for  David has written numerous market forecast articles on various sites (SafeHaven.Com,,, TheStreet.Com etc. ) that have proven to be extremely accurate at major junctures.

© 2010 Copyright Dave Banister- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules