In this week's comments on investor sentiment, I alluded to the positive seasonality seen in the stock markets during the week of Thanksgiving. Here is some compelling data.

This is a very nice table from Trader's Narrative showing how the S&P500 has performed over the last 20 years during the Thanksgiving holiday week. My thanks to Babak for allowing me to share this with my readers.

Table 1. S&P500 Performance/ Thanksgiving Week

While the table covers only 20 years, the article presents some numbers going back to 1950. In essence, the data supports the notion of an upside bias to the week, and in particular, the trading days around the actual Thanksgiving holiday are very positive. Sellers are not out in force, and buyers will push a low volume market higher.

Unfortunately, the good holiday vibe is short lived as the week after Thanksgiving week tends to be a little less bullish.

By Guy Lerner

http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/

Guy M. Lerner, MD is the founder of ARL Advisers, LLC and managing partner of ARL Investment Partners, L.P. Dr. Lerner utilizes a research driven approach to determine those factors which lead to sustainable moves in the markets. He has developed many proprietary tools and trading models in his quest to outperform. Over the past four years, Lerner has shared his innovative approach with the readers of RealMoney.com and TheStreet.com as a featured columnist. He has been a regular guest on the Money Man Radio Show, DEX-TV, routinely published in the some of the most widely-read financial publications and has been a marquee speaker at financial seminars around the world.

© 2009 Copyright Guy Lerner - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Guy Lerner Archive

Comments

Ed Modzienski
10 Nov 11, 10:45

Thanksgiving

what strategy works best on the week of thanksgiving? when should i buy and when should i sell that week based on the statistical information.

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