Financial Markets Primary Focus on U.S. Q3 GDP Economic Data
Economics / Economic Recovery Oct 29, 2009 - 02:01 AM GMTBy: Lloyds_TSB
It is a busy calendar for economic figures today but markets will primarily focus on the advance estimate of US Q3 gdp this afternoon. Despite a 'bolt from the blue' from the UK last week, we believe it is still worth highlighting that the consensus is for annualised US growth of 3.2%, with the range from 2% to 4.8%. We look for a rise of 3.5%, following a drop of 0.7% in Q2 and bringing to an end the longest series of quarterly declines since such records started in 1947.
The main driver is expected to be personal consumption, buoyed by stimulus measures such as the 'cash for clunkers' programme, while both business investment and government spending should add solid support. Initial jobless claims, published at the same time, are forecast to show a modest fall last week. The US Treasury will sell $31bn of 7-year notes later today.
In the UK, BoE lending to individuals data are expected to show a third successive fall in net consumer credit in September, while housing data may show signs of stabilisation. The latest M4 (ex OFCs) money supply data, which is used by the BoE to assess its QE programme, is also due. Later today, Japanese CPI data may show deflation deepened in October.
Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets Economic Research
For more information: Emile Abu-Shakra Manager, Media Relations Lloyds TSB Group Media Relations Tel 020 7356 1878 http://www.lloydstsbcorporatemarkets.com/
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