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Stock Market Indexes Do Not Tell the Tale of Damage

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Oct 28, 2009 - 02:02 PM GMT

By: Trader_Mark

Stock-Markets

First, pardon all the trading today - some days just require it.  I'm already exhausted and its only 2 PM.

Second, we've been saying the indexes are not reflecting the carnage seen "underneath" - my watch lists are full of names in the $500M to $5B market cap space which is my sweet spot, and it looks like September 2008 .  Here is a sampling of what is really happening when you move away from McDonalds, IBM, Walmart, and Microsoft.


Quite a few of these names are foreign stocks, which again shows you how ridiculous this dollar trade has become... it is overreaching, crowded, dominates everything, and has become downright annoying.

HXM -9.9%
GFA -9.0% (stopped out most of this earlier today)
VIP -8.6%
SNDA -7.2%
GGB -6.2%

BX -9.8%  (stopped out a large part of this earlier)
CISG -9.5% (stopped out a large part of this earlier)
EJ -5.1% (stopped out most earlier this week)
KBR -7.3%
MDR -6.5%
FWLT -6.0%

FSYS -9.4% (just bought this)
SD -8.8%
HK -6.3%
CGV -20.3% (I assume earnings related)
MEE -8.3%

MELI -5.8%
ILMN -19.6% (earnings related)
GRMN -15.4%
PRXL -9.1%
LULU -6.5%

UA -12.9%
EXM -6.6%
LVS -6.5%
LEN -6.0%
APOL -17% (SEC investigation)

I have more - sector after sector , but I'll spare you.

Which is why people are going to look at the indexes (assuming we don't have a massive dump in the last 90 minutes) then look at their mutual fund NAV and ask "what the hell is wrong with my manager".   Nothing in particular - breadth is awful today and the large cap dominated indexes are not showing it.

Which leads us to a methodology we were using in late 2007 and throughout 2008... the case of the generals.  Long time readers know what I mean... the generals (leaders) must be shot for a downturn move to be exhausted.  i.e. Apple (AAPL).  So if this part of a "big one" that's something we'll be watching in the days and weeks to come.

Or... it could just be the great dip (buying opportunity) everyone has been asking for on our way to S&P 1200 by New Year's Day. ;)  Much easier to call for the dip when the market just goes up every day, than to execute when said dip arrives.

By Trader Mark

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com

Mark is a self taught private investor who operates the website Fund My Mutual Fund (http://www.fundmymutualfund.com); a daily mix of market, economic, and stock specific commentary.

See our story as told in Barron's Magazine [A New Kind of Fund Manager] (July 28, 2008)

© 2009 Copyright Fund My Mutual Fund - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


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