Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21
CISCO 2020 Dot com Bubble Stock vs 2021 Bubble Tech Stocks Warning Analysis - 6th Oct 21
Precious Metals Complex Searching for a Bottom - 6th Oct 21
FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, AAPL and FANG+ '5 Waves' Speaks Volumes - 6th Oct 21
Budgies Flying Ability 10 Weeks After wings Clipped, Flight Feathers Cut Grow Back - 6th Oct 21
Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
Will China's Crackdown Send Bitcoin's Price Tumbling? - 5th Oct 21
Natural Gas News: Europe Lacks Supply, So It Turns to Asia - 5th Oct 21
Stock Market Correction: One More Spark to Light the Fire? - 5th Oct 21
Fractal Design Meshify S2, Best PC Case Review, Build Quality, Airflow etc. - 5th Oct 21
Chasing Value with Five More Biotech Stocks for the Long-run - 4th Oct 21
Gold’s Century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 4th Oct 21
NASDAQ Stock Market Head-n-Shoulders Warns Of Market Weakness – Critical Topping Pattern - 4th Oct 21
US Dollar on plan, attended by the Gold/Silver ratio - 4th Oct 21
Aptorum Group - APM - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 3rd Oct 21
US Close to Hitting the Debt Ceiling: Gold Doesn’t Care - 3rd Oct 21
Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
Original Oculus VR HeadSet Rift Dev Kit v1 Before Facebook Bought Oculus - 3rd Oct 21
Microsoft Stock Valuation 2021 vs 2000 Bubble - Buy Sell or Hold Invest Analysis - 1st Oct 21
How to profit off the Acquisition spree in Fintech Stocks - 1st Oct 21
�� Halloween 2021 TESCO Shopping Before the Next Big Panic Buying! �� - 1st Oct 2
The Guide to Building a Design Portfolio Online - 1st Oct 21
BioDelivery Sciences International - BDSI - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 30th Sep 21
America’s Revolving-Door Politics Behind the Fall of US-Sino Ties - 30th Sep 21
Dovish to Hawkish Fed: Sounds Bearish for Gold - 30th Sep 21
Stock Market Gauntlet to the Fed - 30th Sep 21
Should you include ESG investments in your portfolio? - 30th Sep 21
Takeda - TAK - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 29th Sep 21
Stock Market Wishing Away Inflation - 29th Sep 21
Why Workers Are NOT Returning to Work as Lockdown's End - Wage Slaves Rebellion - 29th Sep 21
UK Fuel PANIC! Fighting at the Petrol Pumps! As Lemmings Create a New Crisis - 29th Sep 21
Gold Could See Tapering as Soon as November! - 29th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Morgan Stanley Says Stock Market Rebound Rally in Last Stage; Prepare for Fallout from Tightening

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Oct 26, 2009 - 02:12 PM GMT

By: Trader_Mark


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThese words from Morgan Stanley's chief European equity analyst, Teun Draaisma are particularly interesting as we (the collective) sit awash in a world of government intervention and central bank liquidity, while ignoring the fact it is not endless.  Fascinating chart below as well.

If you are not familiar with Draaisma, he made a well known call in summer 2007 to avoid equities.  While he did get investors back in too early after the September/October 2008 crash - I would assume someone who followed his advice between summer 07 and November 08 would of saved themselves a lot of pain; and losses suffered in Jan/Feb 09 would of been made up by now.

His thoughts are below - please note:  I think the US economy is so structurally damaged that I'll stick to my call for no rate increases until early 2011, but Draaisma believes it will happen mid 2010.  Whatever the case, the market will start to price in tightening sometimes between "now" and "summer 2010"... which has the potential for destroying this simplistic "dollar sucks" trade.

That doesn't mean the dollar is not in a long term secular decline but this is a decades long situation based on the debt spiral the country is in; and as with any instrument, nothing goes straight up - or down.  What I found interesting is in previous tightening periods materials and oil based stocks STILL were relative outpeformers... hmm... that seems a bit contrarian to me, but then again in the "old days" all commodities on Earth were not just an inverse trade to the US dollar.

First via Clusterstock 
  • Enjoy the bull while you can. According to Morgan Stanley euro analyst Teun Draaisma, we've got a little more rally left, and then a long, low multi-year grind as moneys starts to get tight.
  1. The tightening phase may start in the next quarter
    or two. We believe investors need increasingly to
    consider the implications of monetary and fiscal stimulus
    withdrawal. We expect the first Fed rate hike in
    mid-2010, but the tightening turning point could come
    sooner, for instance through higher oil. Our portfolio is
    already quite well positioned for this next phase, and we
    provide a ‘tightening checklist’ to decide when to
    position fully for it. The Fed language change ahead of
    the first hike, or a market timing sell signal, would
    indicate the start of that next phase, for us.
  2. Lessons from past tightening cycles. The start of
    tightening phases tends to lead to some indigestion and
    a defensive rotation in equity markets, for two quarters
    or more. The 1994 and 2004 episodes led to a 16% and
    8% fall in MSCI Europe over eight and five months.
    Sector performance was defensive, but Oil and
    Materials outperformed, too. In the aftermath of secular
    bear markets tightening phases have been more severe,
    with equities falling on average 25% over 13 months.  

Does history have to repeat?  No.  But it generally rhymes - a great chart below

To repeat what we (and many others) have said before, the rally is not remarkable in terms of % gains... it is simply the velocity of said rally - we've compressed time like never before.


Also, via FT Alphaville:

  • The most oft repeated argument for why the current rally is built on sand is that money cannot remain loose forever.   Yes, liquidity-drunk investors may be partying now, but they will suffer for this over indulgence when ultra-loose monetary policy is reversed.  Mass panic will ensue in the markets. Squealing fund managers will be crushed like so many fat men simultaneously piling through a revolving hotel door, and cackling bears will revel in their own rightness.
  • Analysts, clearly smelling the fear, have begun to look backwards for previous market reactions to sudden and sustained rate hikes. They need tips on how to survive THE TIGHTENING.  So, do you keep skin in the game, or run screaming for the hills?
  • Teun Draaisma and Morgan Stanley’s European strategy team have the following advice:

Is it worth trying to capture the upcoming last ~10% of a ~70% rally? We feel we are in the latter stages of this cyclical bull market, before the period of indigestion that typically occurs when the tightening phase starts. We recommend investors use significant further market strength to position for the next phase. In the aftermath of secular bear markets these tightening phases could last for four quarters, while markets fall by 25%; 2004 was a benign version of such a tightening period, and even then it lasted for two or three quarters while markets fell 8%.

Our best guess is that this tightening period will start before summer 2010. We keep in mind what Jonathan Bell Lovelace, founder of Capital, is quoted as saying: “When everyone wants to sell, you accommodate them and buy. When everyone wants to buy, you accommodate them and sell. Don’t try to get the last 5 percent. Don’t be greedy”.

Do you know anyone who wants to currently sell?  People (i.e. myself) are smirked at when they sell positions... because stocks "can only go up"...

Greed and fear... how quickly things change.  We said in late 2008, 2009 would be a year of ping pong between extremes.  While accurate, we did not have a clue it would be to this degree.

By Trader Mark

I have been in the market in some form since being a teenager, first with mutual funds, than onto to stocks. Now it is 20 years later. It has been a passion of mine, and as any investor, I've had my ups, downs, and tuition extracted from learning the ins and outs. "If I only knew then..." and I continue to learn each day. I have a BA in economics from the University of Michigan (Go Blue!), and work in finance (not related to Wall St).

See our story as told in Barron's Magazine [A New Kind of Fund Manager] (July 28, 2008)

© 2009 Copyright Fund My Mutual Fund - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in