Financial Markets Waiting to Change Direction?
Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009 Oct 25, 2009 - 08:14 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's Great Depression caught the mainstream commentators and academic economists off guard (again), as the UK economy failed to grow by 0.2% in the third quarter as widely expected but rather contracted by another 0.4%. However the trend remains inline with my analysis and forecast of February 2009 that called for a low in the third quarter of 2009 followed by a small increase in GDP for the fourth quarter of 2009.
July's analysis (Engineering a Strong UK Economic Recovery into a May 2010 General Election ) suggested that a lower starting base for the economy sets up for a stronger statistical economic recovery into a May 2010 General Election as 1st quarter 2010 data is released during late April 2010 and revised yet higher during May 2010. That an unemployment starting to converge towards my lower unemployment target of 2.60 million by April 2010 rather than the 3.2 million mainstream view that will likely be revised lower in the coming months.
The bankster's that caused the Economic Pearl Harbour have been completely and utterly let off the hook by inept, incompetent mainstream politicians that are still more interested in seeking to maximise the amount they can defraud tax payers of in expenses, the price for which is being paid in Britain by the rise of the far-right which has risen in support from 3% of the electorate to about 8% today. During the week the far-right were given airtime on the BBC flagship political debate programme Question Time. Britains Great Double Dip Depression ensures the next few years are going to be tough both economically and socially as governments fight to prevent the OTC Derivatives Pyramid from Imploding into Financial Armageddon.
Financial Markets
The Dow, Gold, U.S. Dollar and Crude Oil all ended little changed on the week.
The Dow has given a strong performance from the March bear market lows confounding relentless bearish commentary that saw every dip as the start of THE CRASH!, and Gold which remains hinged to the outcome of the U.S. Dollar that still clings on by its finger nails to the earlier bull market scenario, though which implies an inter market relationship that says a higher dollar 'should' result in gold and stock market weakness, as ever timing will be in the detail especially as Octobers stock market correction was much weaker than expected, about half that which was required to correct the preceding advance to the 9,750 target which has not put the subsequent break above 10,000 on a particularly strong footing, therefore I remain skeptical of the current phase of the stocks bull market rally being sustainable, more on this on in depth analysis in the coming days.
Trading Lesson - Forecasting and Trading
Over time one learns the important difference between forecasting, which is scenario building and trading, which is reacting to price movements in real time. Why forecast ?
There is the incentive to stay attuned with the market mentally because the act of trading is not intellectually stimulating it is more akin to repetitive action akin to a martial art or sport where practice rules supreme, whereas forecasting is intellectually stimulating and aimed at giving insight into the mega-trends against which major corrections, even bear markets (with hedging) can be ridden out i.e. the peak oil mega-trend, the climate change mega trend, the population growth mega trend impact on agri-food's, the fresh water mega-trend and the emerging asian middle class mega-trend on consumer consumption and innovation. Therefore the primary purpose of forecasting is to arrive at a firm conclusion in the present that enables one to commit to a trend without which all we would be doing is looking back at what has happened and wishing we had par-taken in a particular investment trend.
However those that blindly believe their forecasts to be absolute after the fact i.e. even if they are going belly up are setting themselves up for an inevitable fall, as all forecasts at the end of the day are only educated best guesses at a particular point in time and must have a mechanism to negate the scenario's. Ironically recognising this fact can lead to the generation of more accurate forecasts as one is not psychologically committed to ones forecasts which is the downfall of many analysts that cling on to trends that have long since been negated by price action as we have observed this year with the stocks bull market rally, which IF a new bear market soon starts will conveniently be erased from the record.
Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14488.html
Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Featured Analysis of the Week
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week :
| 1. Exploding U.S. National Debt Means Bye Bye Miss American Pie |
By: James_Quinn
Don McLean was born in 1945 and grew up in New Rochelle, New York. He was one of the earliest Baby Boomers. He was born at the beginning of America’s last High, as described by Strauss & Howe in their book The Fourth Turning. America’s victory in World War II began a new 80 to 100 year cycle consisting of four turnings of 20 to 25 years. The four cycles are a High, an Awakening, an Unraveling and a Crisis. These cycles have been recurring throughout history due to the generational mood changes as people age.
| 2. WaMu Insider Trading and Naked Short Selling |
By: Mike_Stathis
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a piece discussing allegations of insider trading and illegal naked short selling of Washington Mutual, involving the banking cartel and potentially their hedge fund clients.
In this piece, I provided a link to the SEC complaint I submitted on October 7, 2008.
| 3. Debt Spiral Financial Holocaust Fiat Currencies Zero Bound, the Next Down Leg |
By: Ty_Andros
The demise of the G7 financial systems, currencies and economies continues to march along as incomes collapse. The social welfare states and their banking system’s Ponzi finance-based economies are BROKE, their obligations and promises irredeemable and unpayable.
A debt spiral is in full view, irreversible with policymakers unable or unwilling and opposed to making the changes required to CREATE PRIVATE SECTOR INCOME GROWTH and control SPENDING, and which must be done to avert the final CALAMITY.
| 4. Geo-Strategic Chessboard Pushing India Towards War With China |
By: Mahdi_D_Nazemroaya
Since 1947, India has not fully pledged itself to any camp or global pole during the Cold War and as a result was a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement (N.A.M.). Since the post-Cold War era that position has eroded. New Delhi has been gradually moving away from its traditional position, relationships, and policies in the international arena for over a decade.
INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE
Here are the newest authors: Jack Schwager, John Murphy, Jake Bernstein, and Ron Ianieri. All experts, all well recognized, and highly trafficked by our current members. http://tv.ino.com/ |
| 5. U.S. Dollar Attacked by Central Bank Lilliputians Profting From the Carry Trade |
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The US Federal Reserve continues to talk about their urgent Exit Strategy. My theory is they will be doing mostly talking and almost no doing. The nations that talk the least will be hiking interest rates the most, like Australia. The United States might be dead last in hiking interest rates. The credibility of the USFed will in the process continue to be harmed much more than already, which is rock bottom. The Dollar Carry Trade and the lost Petro-Dollar advantage will work to destroy the USDollar as the global reserve currency. The USFed will have to resort to unusual means to keep the world ‘interested’ and ‘involved’ in the USDollar at all. When they lose interest and involvement, the US$ will descend into the Third World. The USDollar will then be forced to find its true value, based on its own merit.
| 6. If Bernake Doesn’t Raise The Fed Interest Rate Very Soon There Will Be BIG Trouble |
By: Andrew_Butter
The debate about whether it was Alan Greenspan’s “fault” will continue for generations, the “other side” summed up their position nicely in a quip that came up in the debate about whether to let the Fed have more power, “ That’s like buying your teenager a sports car after he wreaked the family saloon”.
| 7. Gerald Celente, Their is NO Economic Recovery, It's A COVERUP |
By: Submission
Video - Interview With Gerald Celente
Their is No Economic Recovery-Its A Cover-up
| Subscription |
You're receiving this Email because you've registered with our website.
How to Subscribe
Click here to register and get our FREE Newsletter
| About: The Market Oracle Newsletter |
The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Newsletter and online publication.
(c) 2005-2009MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - The Market Oracle asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team. Any and all information provided within this newsletter is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided in this newsletter. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. ( Market Oracle Ltd , Registered in England and Wales, Company no 6387055.
Registered office: 226 Darnall Road, Sheffield S9 5AN , UK )
© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.
