Gold Slips from Fresh Record High as Data Sends Stocks and Oil Soaring
Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009 Oct 14, 2009 - 07:28 AM GMTBy: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD slipped from a new record high of $1070.50 an ounce on Wednesday morning in London, easing back 0.8% as world stock markets jumped and crude oil shot to a 12-month high above $75 per barrel.
Both US Dollars and Japanese Yen – last autumn's "safe haven" currencies amid the global banking collapse – were sold lower on the forex market.
World No.1 chipmaker Intel reported a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly profits.
British government gilt prices fell at the fastest pace in three months following news that UK unemployment – now at a fresh 12-year record – rose less quickly than analysts forecast over the summer.
"We have yet to see any formation that suggests this up move [in gold] is about to end," says the latest technical analysis from Scotia Mocatta.
"Our measured move target remains $1106 with trailing stop-loss now raised to $1036 on a close basis."
"If you're a believer in cycles, we're still only halfway to the all-time high for gold prices," said David Garofalo, CFO of Canada's Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd, in an interview yesterday.
"The real high was $850 back in 1980, which would be about $2,300 in today's Dollars."
Former Newmont Australia director John Dow, now chairman of Troy Resources, told reports today he expects the gold price to trade between $1100 and $1650 an ounce from here to year-end.
"Investors fear how much damage the US Dollar will suffer and this is in our opinion lifting gold," J.P.Morgan analysts told clients yesterday, raising their view of world No.1 miner Barrick Gold.
The major US and Canadian gold mining firms will report their latest quarterly earnings towards the end of this month and in early Nov.
"We are in uncharted territory," says Tobias Merath, chief commodity researcher at Credit Suisse in Zurich, Switzerland, speaking to Bloomberg.
"You still have robust investment flows and we think gold can easily reach $1,100 an ounce. [But] most of the gold rally has been attributable to a weaker Dollar."
Touching fresh 7-month highs early Tuesday, the Gold Price in both Sterling and Euros fell hard today as both currencies rose.
Priced in British Pounds, gold dropped 2.3% from yesterday's peak to unwind this week's gains-to-date at £661 an ounce – a little over 5% below the all-time high hit in Feb. this year.
Eurozone investors now looking to Buy Gold saw the metal slip 1.2% from Tuesday's top, trading at €712 an ounce by lunchtime in London.
"I don't think this Dhanteras we will be able to get anywhere close to the 15-20 tonnes we normally sell," said Suresh Hundia, president of the Bombay Bullion Association in India to Reuters earlier, blaming current Gold Prices for a sharp drop in the subcontinent's typically strong post-harvest festival buying.
"It might fall by 75%."
On the international wholesale market in contrast, "Buying momentum spiked sharply just before we saw the last rally," reports Walter de Wet at Standard Bank today.
"[So] at this stage, gold flows indicate that the physical market is neutral – spelling a possible consolidation for gold at this level."
Center of worldwide investment trading in gold, London saw daily volumes jump last month at the fastest pace in 12 years of market data.
Professional trade-body the London Bullion Market Association said today that its members reported daily gold volumes equal to 20.6 million ounces (640 tonnes) on average in September.
Over in Manhattan, meantime, the top twenty US banks and securities firms are "on pace to pay their employees about $140 billion this year – a record high" according to analysis by the Wall Street Journal.
A survey of 1,000 voters conducted for the newspaper and NBC News last month found that 45% felt the stimulus package approved by Congress at the start of '09 was a "bad idea".
Only 34% of respondents now supported the package.
By Adrian Ash
BullionVault.com
Gold price chart, no delay | Free Report: 5 Myths of the Gold Market
City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and a regular contributor to MoneyWeek magazine, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at www.BullionVault.com , giving you direct access to investment gold, vaulted in Zurich , on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.
(c) BullionVault 2009
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