Can Gold and Silver Equities Expect +5,000% Returns Again?
Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks Oct 05, 2009 - 02:45 AM GMTBy: Lorimer_Wilson
With what has happened in the world of late and what will be unfolding in the next 5 years or so those few investors who fully understand the impact the current economic situation is going to have on future inflation, the USD, interest rates, the stock market, physical gold and silver and gold and silver stocks and warrants in particular are going to be in the unique position of being the benefactors of currently unimaginable returns and wealth. All they need do, as I like to say, is “Just prepare and prosper!”
Back in the mid- to late 1970’s, as gold went up from its 1972 low of $60 to $850 in 1980 (and silver to $50), gold and silver stocks realized absolutely amazing gains:
- Lion Mines – 1975 price: $0.07 / 1980 price: $380 i.e. an increase of 542,757%!!!
- Azure Resources - 1975 price: $.05 / 1980 price: $109 i.e. an increase of 217,900%!!
- Wharf Resources - 1975 price: $.40 / 1980 price: $560 i.e. an increase of 139,000%!!
- Mineral Resources - 1975 price: $.60 / 1980 price: $415 i.e. an increase of 69,067%!!
- Steep Rock - 1975 price: $.93 / 1980 price: $440 i.e. an increase of 47,212%!!
- Bankeno - 1975 price: $1.25 / 1980 price: $430 i.e. an increase of 34,300%!!
The percentage returns above, averaging 70,627%, seem totally unbelievable but they are verifiable. They were achieved by investing in the right stocks at the right time. Imagine, and the above companies were only a handful of the gold and silver stocks that generated such astounding returns.
To put things in perspective let’s look at it this way. Had an astute investor divided a $10,000 investment equally among the 6 companies mentioned above in 1975 it would have grown to $7,072,700 just 5 years later! I can’t imagine that ever happening again but that is what actually happened back then. It is absolutely amazing, isn’t it? Even a 10,000% appreciation would have turned that $10,000 into $1 million dollars! Remember, it only takes a few good investment decisions in one’s life to be exceedingly successful and that was such a time.
I know, I know, you think that was then and this is now and increases in excess of 500% let alone 1000% or more would never happen again. Well, that was not the case. Take a look below (chart compliments of Doug Casey’s International Spectator) at what happened to the shares of mining companies during the mini-bull market in gold in 1993-1996. The larger producers did well (+84.2%) but look at what happened to a selected group of juniors during that 3 year period. The returns averaged 1,546.4%!
Will such happen again within the next 5 years? Most likely! In fact, just in the past 12 months the Gold/Silver Companies with Warrants Index (GCWI) of 22 such companies (5 large-cap; 3 mid-cap; 2 small-cap; 12 micro or nano-cap) has already appreciated by 183.7% from its 52-week lows while the 24+ months duration warrants of those companies (26 in total) in our Precious Metals Warrants Index (PMWII) have already gone up 366.2%. That is correct: 366.2%! And that only represents the first year of major gains.
As seen below the GCWI is up 51.6% YTD and the PMWI is up 73.8% YTD. Yes, the Commodity Companies with Warrants Index (CCWI) and Commodity Warrants Index (CWI) are up by even greater amounts (85.5% and 153.7% respectively) but these indices also include other mining companies (8), oil and gas companies (2), merchant banks (3) and 1 mutual fund with one or more warrants each (47 in total).
Last Week’s % Performance(1)
|
Prev. Wk |
Prev. Mo |
YTD(2) |
Gold |
1.2 |
0.9 |
13.4 |
Silver |
0.7 |
-0.5 |
42.8 |
HUI(3) |
-0.7 |
-3.5 |
30.5 |
GDM(4) |
-0.7 |
-5.1 |
26.2 |
CDNX(5) |
-1.8 |
2.9 |
75.9 |
TSX |
-2.8 |
1.1 |
37.4 |
S&P 500 |
-1.8 |
0.9 |
8.6 |
CCWI(6) |
-1.6 |
-7.6 |
85.5 |
CWI(7) |
-3.2 |
-7.6 |
153.7 |
PMWI(8) |
-2.2 |
-3.1 |
73.8 |
GCWI(9) |
-0.7 |
-3.6 |
51.6 |
All calculations are based on U.S. dollar equivalents
(2) Week ending October 2nd, 2009
(3)HUI is the symbol of the AMEX Gold BUGS Index consisting of a Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks. It is a modified equal dollar-weighted index of 15 large/mid cap gold mining companies that do not hedge their gold beyond 1.5 years.
(4)GDM is the symbol for the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. It is a modified market capitalization weighted index of 31 large/mid/small cap gold and silver mining companies.
(5)CDNX is the symbol for the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index. It consists of 558 micro and nano cap companies of which 44% are engaged in the mining, exploration and/or development of gold and/or silver and other mineral resources and 18% in oil or natural gas pursuits.
(6)CCWI represents the Commodity Companies with Warrants Index. It is an equal dollar-weighted index consisting of 36 commodity-related companies with warrants of at least 24 months duration outstanding trading on the Canadian and U.S. stock exchanges.
(7)CWI represents the Commodity Warrants Index. It is an equal dollar- weighted index consisting of 47 warrants of at least 24 months duration associated with the 36 companies in the CCWI.
(8)PMWI represents the Precious Metals Warrants Index. It is an equal dollar-weighted index comprised of the 26 gold and silver warrants, of at least a 24 months duration, found in the CWI.
(9)GCWI represents the Gold/Silver Companies with Warrants Index. It is an equal dollar-weighted index comprised of the 22 gold and silver mining and royalty companies with warrants in the CCWI.
Sources: preciousmetalswarrants.com (warrant and stocks-with-warrants data), oanda.com (exchange rates) and stockcharts.com (index and commodity prices).
Are you are of the opinion that the U.S. dollar is going to continue to weaken against other currencies? Are you of the opinion that we are going to have significant inflation in the next few years? If so, then we are going to see gold and silver doubling or tripling in price as a result. As such, it is imperative that you invest in either the stocks of the companies that mine the gold and silver and/or in the royalty companies that buy the gold and silver from mining companies at predetermined fixed prices. Better yet, much better in fact, is that, wherever possible, you should purchase certain of the long-term warrants offered by some of the gold and silver mining and royalty companies as a means of realizing your +5,000% returns.
Why Buy Gold and/or Silver Mining/Royalty Stocks instead of Physical Gold or Silver? To Double Your Returns – or Possibly More!
If gold, for example, were to escalate considerably in price (i.e. to $2,000, $3,000, or even more) in the next few years it would have a significantly positive impact on the profitability of the companies who mine it and the royalty companies that buy it from marginal producers. For example, with gold priced at $1,000/oz., and the cost of production at perhaps $600/oz. the gross profit margin of gold mining companies would be 40.0%. If 2 years from now, however, gold were to increase to $2,000 and the cost of production were to increase by only 20% to $720/oz. then the mining companies’ gross profit margins would have gone up from $400/oz. to $1280/oz. or 220%!
That’s called leverage and historically, in a rising market, the ratio for gold and silver mining/royalty shares vs. physical gold ranges from about 2.5:1 for large-cap companies (currently 2.6:1 YTD for HUI companies according to the table above) on average to as much as 6:1 for gold and silver mining/royalty companies (currently 3.9:1 YTD according to the Gold/Silver Companies with Warrants Index), on average and even 10:1 in exceptional circumstances for certain truly outstanding performers. All the more reason for you to do your due diligence to find and invest in those gold and silver mining and/or royalty companies with the right mix of capable management, strong financing, major resources and geographically and politically well-located properties and reap the major benefits of such a surge in the future price of gold and silver.
Why Buy the Warrants instead of the Stock of Certain Gold/Silver Mining and Royalty Companies? To Further Double Your Returns – or More!
For those of you who are prudent enough to do your homework and buy the right long-term warrants associated with the right gold and silver mining and/or royalty companies at today’s undervalued prices, your eventual returns would likely be 1.5 to 3 times greater (currently 1.4:1 YTD for the Precious Metals Warrants Index vs. the Gold/Silver with Warrants Index) on average than had you invested in their associated stocks. For companies whose stock prices go through the roof with monster gains that ratio could even be as high as 5:1.
That’s referred to as leverage-on-leverage or doubling-up on the leverage factor. The catch is, however, that you have to know whether or not the warrant associated with the stock you are interested in buying is the right warrant i.e. has a leverage/time value sufficiently high enough to justify its purchase given the anticipated appreciation in the price of the associated stock. For those who don’t have a clue what a warrant is, which companies have them, which have the best values, exactly how to go about buying them and which on-line brokers are sufficiently knowledgeable and capable of placing American, European, Australian and Asian orders (there are no problems for Canadians placing such orders with their brokers as most such securities are traded on their TSX or TSX Venture exchanges) check out the PreciousMetalsWarrants site below.
Can Gold and Silver Equities Expect +5,000% Returns Once Again?
Using the above ratios the answer is: “Yes they can!” True, not all such companies with reap such returns but a few of the well chosen ones will once again see returns that most gold bugs dream about. All it is going to take is an environment in which some combination of a declining U.S. dollar, rampant inflation (or fear thereof), high interest rates, ongoing financial instability, further economic turmoil and occasional acts of terrorism come together to interact with high gold and silver prices and some trading mania. We are moving in that direction right across the board so it is just a matter of time.
We are in the eye of the storm and when the other side of the vortex engulfs us gold and silver will increase considerably, their associated stocks will go up substantially and their warrants, where available, will escalate dramatically. Those mega returns can be yours in the future if you start today to prepare for that day.
To my readers: Contact me at Lorimer@preciousmetalswarrants.com with questions and comments. I promise a reply. Don’t be shy - drop me a line or two. Guest Contributors are welcome – just send me a draft of your proposed article for consideration. That’s how I got started. It is a very enjoyable and stimulating activity. I will be speaking at the World MoneyShow in Toronto in October. If you attend please introduce yourself.
We have two web sites that we believe will help you make money in these very volatile times.
www.PreciousMetalsWarrants.com provides a free one-of-a-kind database (updated weekly) on all commodity-related warrants trading on exchanges in the United States and Canada and offers a subscription service ($19.95 or $49.95) which ranks all warrants according to their own current unique leverage/time values based on four projected stock price appreciation levels.
Thanks for the read. – Lorimer.
© 2009 Copyright Lorimer Wilson- All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.
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