Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20
U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" - 27th Jun 20
Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals - 27th Jun 20
Why People Have Always Held Gold - 27th Jun 20
Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance - 27th Jun 20
INTEL x86 Chip Giant Stock Targets Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing for 2020's Growth - 25th Jun 20
Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here - 25th Jun 20
Hainan’s ASEAN Future and Dark Clouds Over Hong Kong - 25th Jun 20
Silver Price Trend Analysis - 24th Jun 20
A Stealth Stocks Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started - 24th Jun 20
Trillion-dollar US infrastructure plan will draw in plenty of metal - 24th Jun 20
WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised - 24th Jun 20
All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold - 24th Jun 20
Making Sense of Crude Oil Price Narrow Trading Range - 23rd Jun 20
Elon Musk Mocks Nikola Motors as “Dumb.” Is He Right? - 23rd Jun 20
MICROSOFT Transforming from PC Software to Cloud Services AI, Deep Learning Giant - 23rd Jun 20
Stock Market Decline Resumes - 22nd Jun 20
Excellent Silver Seasonal Buying Opportunity Lies Directly Ahead - 22nd Jun 20
Where is the US Dollar trend headed ? - 22nd Jun 20
Most Shoppers have Stopped Following Supermarket Arrows, is Coughing the New Racism? - 22nd Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

Corporate Insiders Selling Stocks , Extremely Bearish

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Aug 20, 2009 - 12:51 AM GMT

By: Bob_Bronson

Stock-Markets

We are in very good company with our bearish outlook for the stock market.  Insiders at companies in the aggregate are still unloading their companies’ stock at the most rapid clip at least since October 2007, when the stock market peaked and the current, as-yet unfinished, second downleg of the Supercycle Bear Market started.  (endnote 1)


Insiders are those corporate officers, directors, major shareholders and others have an inside track on the future earnings outlook for their companies, as well on the relative attractiveness of the price of their companies’ stocks.  Insiders’ buying and selling activity is a particularly useful market indicator over the short term (weeks) to intermediate term (months), especially when used in conjunction with other market timing indicators.

Insiders normally sell about twice as many shares as they buy, since they receive shares of stock from their employers as part of their total compensation package and need to sell in order to get at the money.  However, in the five weeks ending August 12 and reported today, August 14, by the WSJ’s Market Data Center, insiders sold a whopping $2.2 billion and purchased only $62.2 million in their companies for a huge sell-to-buy ratio of 36:1, or 17 times normal (table below). 

Selling to buying in technology stocks was a huge 61:1, or 24 times normal.  And remember that technology stocks lead the market, so the insider selling in that sector is an extraordinarily bearish indicator for the direction of the stock market. 

This latest report, which includes insider activity when the S&P 500 index made its 1018 intraday high last Friday, in itself is another major sell signal for the stock market.  Taken together with the sell signals from insiders’ extremely high levels of net selling during the previous four weeks, the reconfirmation is an additional, extremely bearish signal. 

Endnotes:

#1 A Supercycle Bear Market is the biggest sequence of bear markets during a Supercycle bear market period.  For example, during the previous Supercycle bear market period from 1965-82, the Supercycle bear market lasted for the six years from the high point in December 1968 to the low point in December 1974.  The latest one started on October 7, 1997, when money market fund returns started to sustainably outperform stocks, and exactly when we issued our call for it. Current Stock Market Rally Within Supercycle Stocks Bear Market

A Bronson Asset Allocation Cycles (BAAC) Supercycle Bear Market period is a 12- to 20-year period of underperformance during which bear markets, anticipating economic recessions, as well as the recessions themselves typically are at least twice as frequent and twice as severe in magnitude and duration as during Supercycle Bull Market Periods.  Such a period begins when the return on money market funds sustainably exceeds the total return on equities, especially when downside-volatility-risk is taken into account.  Further details are found in our research paper, “Bronson Asset Allocation Cycles,” available on request.

By Bob Bronson Bronson Capital Markets Research bob@bronsons.com

Copyright © 2009 Bob Bronson. All Rights Reserved Bob Bronson 's 40-year career in the financial services industry has spanned investment research, portfolio management, financial planning, due diligence, syndication, and consulting. At age 23, he and his partner founded an investment research firm for institutional clients and were among the first to use mainframe computers for investment research, especially in the areas of alpha-beta analysis and risk-adjusted relative strength stock selection. Since 1967, he has served as an investment strategist and consultant to various investment advisory firms and is the principal of Bronson Capital Markets Research. If you wish to read more, read his BIO

A note to visitors ~ We do not have a website, but we maintain a private e-mail list. I'm also often asked why we provide research and forecast information for free. Since we are not looking for new business from the internet, I periodically post some of our research and forecasts in exchange for feedback from others. And since we don't publish in academic or industry trade journals, such internet discussion gives us as much peer review as we want and can conveniently assimilate at this time.

Also, the few archiving discussion boards in which I have the time to participate give us new ideas and allow us to establish and maintain intellectual property copyrights for our proprietary research, and to establish a verifiable forecasting record. At the same time, we are able to publicly document our forecasts and help others who otherwise don't have access to our work.

To be added to our private e-mail list, we only ask that you periodically provide feedback: questions, comments and/or constructive criticism to keep our research work and forecasts as error-free, readily comprehensible and topically relevant as possible. If you would like to be added, please explain, at least briefly, what you do, since our e-mailing list is categorized by the backgrounds of the recipients.

Robert E. Bronson, III Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules