Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

China's Unfair Currency Advantage, 29% of International Reserve Assets

Currencies / China Currency Yuan Jul 20, 2009 - 04:51 AM GMT

By: Money_and_Markets

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBryan Rich writes: China’s the largest country in the world by population, the third-largest economy and the third-largest exporter. It’s also the owner of over $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves.


And in the worst global recession since the Great Depression, it’s the only large economy that’s growing! But it’s also the most restricted and least transparent of the bunch.

So how did China amass such a position in the global economy? And how does one country gather 29 percent of all international reserve assets?

The common notion is that it all boils down to trade … countries running trade surpluses (net exporters) accumulate wealth from countries running trade deficits (net importers).

But for China, reserve accumulation and economic growth has as much or more to do with its exchange rate policy as it does with huge trade surpluses …

You see, exports have been, and are, the key driver of growth in China. And when dollar-based investments and revenues flow into China, converting those inflows to the yuan puts upward pressure on China’s currency. This upward pressure threatens to strengthen the yuan, making it less competitive on a global stage for trade.

China needs a weak currency to keep its exports high and factories humming.
China needs a weak currency to keep its exports high and factories humming.

China doesn’t want that … China needs a weak yuan to continue exporting its way to growth. That’s why the Chinese central bank manages the value of its currency.

To offset the local demand to exchange U.S. dollars for yuan, the central bank takes the other side — selling yuan and buying dollars. This keeps the exchange rate stable, and China builds vast amounts of dollar reserves.

The Weak Currency Advantage …

For a decade, China maintained a fixed exchange rate policy — the yuan was pegged against the dollar. One U.S. dollar bought 8.27 yuan. This allowed China to undercut the rest of the world, churning out cheap commoditized goods, competing on one thing: Price.

Consequently, the Chinese economy shot up from $728 billion to $2.3 trillion.

But in 2005, China changed its currency policy. It abandoned the peg.

After political tensions rose between China and its key trading partners, namely the U.S., China adopted a “managed float.” Under this policy China agreed to let the yuan trade in a defined daily trading band, while gradually allowing it to appreciate. This was China’s way of pacifying its trading partners while maintaining complete control over its currency.

Over the next three years the Chinese yuan climbed 17 percent against the dollar, enough to ease a politically sensitive issue, but far less than the relative economic growth would warrant. In fact, China’s economy grew by 43 percent while the U.S. economy grew only 10 percent.

If China’s currency was determined by market forces, the relative outperformance would:

  • Drive investments into China …
  • Drive up the value of the yuan …
  • And drive down the value of the U.S. dollar.

This currency dynamic would slow exports in China and make exports in the U.S. more appealing. A natural balancing mechanism.

But not only has China been very slow to let the yuan strengthen, thus protecting its export model, it’s virtually put the brakes on currency appreciation altogether since the inception of the global financial crisis.

The chart below shows the move from a peg, to a managed float, and back to what is effectively a pegged exchange rate …

U.S. Dollar vs. Chinese Yuan

Source: Bloomberg

China has been moving, however, on another area of its currency policy — the international use of the yuan in trade.

Until this month, trading of yuan had been heavily restricted by the government — authorized only within mainland China and only through China’s agent banks.

Therefore, Chinese companies could not settle foreign trade in yuan. Most international trade was priced in U.S. dollars and settled in U.S. dollars, creating the burgeoning foreign currency reserves I mentioned above.

Now for the first time, China is relaxing restrictions and allowing the yuan to trade offshore with select Asian neighboring countries. This is a first step in China’s attempt to temper growth in its foreign currency reserves and to make the yuan a globally traded currency.

But the yuan lacks appeal as an international currency. After all, there are hurdles associated with managing currency risk of the yuan, especially because the government controls its value!

China’s Unfair Advantage …

As a currency manipulator, China is in violation of WTO rules. Yet its trade partners have been hesitant to levy that charge. Instead, led by the U.S., they they’ve taken a diplomatic approach, encouraging China to move toward a market determined (or free-floating) exchange rate.

A manipulated yuan could result in skyrocketing tariffs on Chinese goods.
A manipulated yuan could result in skyrocketing tariffs on Chinese goods.

But China doesn’t seem to have any intention on giving up its key mechanism for controlling its competitive advantage on the world stage. Why would they?

Moreover, China is now furthering its efforts to create and protect its advantage.

This time, though, its trading partners are putting up a fight. Both the U.S. and Europe recently filed a complaint with the WTO. They accused China of limiting exports of raw materials to the rest of the world, giving an unfair advantage to its domestic manufacturers.

And here’s my point: Many perceive China to have the position of strength over the world economy. But with an economy so dependent on a manipulated currency and maintaining unfair trade advantages, resistance from global trading partners could reverse that perception very quickly.

Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that a couple of U.S. Senators were passing around a bill to hit Chinese goods with a 27.5 percent tariff!

Regards,

Bryan

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets . Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com .

Money and Markets Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in