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Stock Market Investor Sentiment: Summer Doldrums

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Jun 28, 2009 - 11:00 AM GMT

By: Guy_Lerner

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is the end of the month. It is the end of the quarter. It is the week before a holiday. This gives the market a slight upward bias for the coming week. In the intermediate term, the "Dumb Money" indicator remains bullish to an extreme degree, and typically this is a bearish signal. This is a real head wind for the market. Since the "dumb money" turned bullish 8 weeks ago, the S&P500 has lost a little more than 1%, the NASDAQ 100 is up about 6% and the Russell 2000 is flat. For the week ahead, I suspect the shorter term bullish bias and the longer term bearish bias will make the markets choppy and range bound. It is the summer doldrums!


The "Dumb Money" indicator is shown in figure 1. The "Dumb Money" indicator looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market: 1) Investor Intelligence; 2) Market Vane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio.

Figure 1. "Dumb Money" Indicator/ weekly

The "Smart Money" indicator is shown in figure 2. The "smart money" indicator is a composite of the following data: 1) public to specialist short ratio; 2) specialist short to total short ratio; 3) SP100 option traders. The "smart money" is neutral.

Figure 2. "Smart Money" Indicator/ weekly

By Guy Lerner

http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/

Guy M. Lerner, MD is the founder of ARL Advisers, LLC and managing partner of ARL Investment Partners, L.P. Dr. Lerner utilizes a research driven approach to determine those factors which lead to sustainable moves in the markets. He has developed many proprietary tools and trading models in his quest to outperform. Over the past four years, Lerner has shared his innovative approach with the readers of RealMoney.com and TheStreet.com as a featured columnist. He has been a regular guest on the Money Man Radio Show, DEX-TV, routinely published in the some of the most widely-read financial publications and has been a marquee speaker at financial seminars around the world.

© 2009 Copyright Guy Lerner - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Guy Lerner Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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