Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
The Central Bank Time Machine - 23rd Aug 19
Stock Market August Breakdown Prediction and Analysis - 23rd Aug 19
U.S. To “Drown The World” In Oil - 23rd Aug 19
Modern Monetary Theory Could Destroy America - 23rd Aug 19
Seven Key Words That Explain "Stupidly High" Bond Market Prices - 23rd Aug 19
Is the Fed Too Late Prevent A US Housing Bear Market? - 23rd Aug 19
Manchester Airport FREE Drop Off Area Service at JetParks 1 - Video - 23rd Aug 19
Gold Price Trend Validation - 22nd Aug 19
Economist Lays Out the Next Step to Wonderland for the Fed - 22nd Aug 19
GCSE Exam Results Day Shock! How to Get 9 A*'s Grade 9's in England and Maths - 22nd Aug 19
KEY WEEK FOR US MARKETS, GOLD, AND OIL - Audio Analysis - 22nd Aug 19
USD/JPY, USD/CHF, GBP/USD Currency Pairs to Watch Prior to FOMC Minutes and Jackson Hole - 22nd Aug 19
Fed Too Late To Prevent US Real Estate Market Crash? - 22nd Aug 19
Retail Sector Isn’t Dead. It’s Growing and Pays 6%+ Dividends - 22nd Aug 19
FREE Access EWI's Financial Market Forecasting Service - 22nd Aug 19
Benefits of Acrobits Softphone - 22nd Aug 19
How to Protect Your Site from Bots & Spam? - 21st Aug 19
Fed Too Late To Prevent A US Housing Market Crash? - 21st Aug 19
Gold and the Cracks in the U.S., Japan and Germany’s Economic Data - 21st Aug 19
The Gold Rush of 2019 - 21st Aug 19
How to Play Interest Rates in US Real Estate - 21st Aug 19
Stocks Likely to Breakout Instead of Gold - 21st Aug 19
Top 6 Tips to Attract Followers On SoundCloud - 21st Aug 19
WAYS TO SECURE YOUR FINANCIAL FUTURE - 21st Aug 19
Holiday Nightmares - Your Caravan is Missing! - 21st Aug 19
UK House Building and House Prices Trend Forecast - 20th Aug 19
The Next Stock Market Breakdown And The Setup - 20th Aug 19
5 Ways to Save by Using a Mortgage Broker - 20th Aug 19
Is This Time Different? Predictive Power of the Yield Curve and Gold - 19th Aug 19
New Dawn for the iGaming Industry in the United States - 19th Aug 19
Gold Set to Correct but Internals Remain Bullish - 19th Aug 19
Stock Market Correction Continues - 19th Aug 19
The Number One Gold Stock Of 2019 - 19th Aug 19
The State of the Financial Union - 18th Aug 19
The Nuts and Bolts: Yield Inversion Says Recession is Coming But it May take 24 months - 18th Aug 19
Markets August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow – Are You Ready? - 18th Aug 19
JOHNSON AND JOHNSON - JNJ for Life Extension Pharma Stocks Investing - 17th Aug 19
Negative Bond Market Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Stock Market Leadership - 17th Aug 19
Is Stock Market About to Crash? Three Charts That Suggest It’s Possible - 17th Aug 19
It’s Time For Colombia To Dump The Peso - 17th Aug 19
Gold & Silver Stand Strong amid Stock Volatility & Falling Rates - 16th Aug 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Fundamentals - 16th Aug 19
Silver, Transports, and Dow Jones Index At Targets – What Direct Next? - 16th Aug 19
When the US Bond Market Bubble Blows Up! - 16th Aug 19
Dark days are closing in on Apple - 16th Aug 19
Precious Metals Gone Wild! Reaching Initial Targets – Now What’s Next - 16th Aug 19
US Government Is Beholden To The Fed; And Vice-Versa - 15th Aug 19
GBP vs USD Forex Pair Swings Into Focus Amid Brexit Chaos - 15th Aug 19
US Negative Interest Rates Go Mainstream - With Some Glaring Omissions - 15th Aug 19
GOLD BULL RUN TREND ANALYSIS - 15th Aug 19
US Stock Market Could Fall 12% to 25% - 15th Aug 19
A Level Exam Results School Live Reaction Shock 2019! - 15th Aug 19
It's Time to Get Serious about Silver - 15th Aug 19
The EagleFX Beginners Guide – Financial Markets - 15th Aug 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The No 1 Gold Stock for 2019

Stock Market Advantage Credit Spreads Weekly Update

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Jun 26, 2009 - 03:31 AM GMT

By: Angelo_Campione

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a market that went up 3.9% for the month, ACS just generated its best return this year at 10%. When you consider that at the start of the year the S&P opened at 902, if you'd simply bought and held, you'd be up less than 2.5% in 6 months and gone through a lot of anguish along the way. On the other hand, the ACS strategy has added 36.5% on an uncompounded basis and has done it relatively comfortably. At this point, the average return is 6.08% Per Month and right on track with the average we aim for of 6% per month.


We made some changes to the system late last year that has added a new dimension to this strategy and the results are speaking for themselves. In a market that's gone through major turmoil, it certainly hasn't been breeze for newsletter writers to produce consistent gains this year and so we remain humble that we have been able to do well under the circumstances.

It's certainly no time to get cocky, losses are always possible for any system and while we can't make any guarantees for future performance, we can state that we remain committed to being vigilant in producing the best returns for the lowest possible risk.

Here's the performance for ACS so far this year:

(Please note, this performance is raw, i.e. without brokerage/commissions taken into account)

To learn more, please click here.

Note, this service can also be auto-traded (without charge) through Think or Swim brokers.

On to the weekly report.

Current Positioning:

SPY: Short 50%
QQQQ: Short 50%

General Commentary:

The current market conditions underwent a break down of sorts during the week although support held and the up trends for all markets remain in place.

With trends holding, the potential for a rise to new highs from here is still quite possible, although in a wider scale, the down side potential remains greater than up side potential, so we continue to be wary of any rises.

On to the analysis..

SPX Chart - Bigger Picture

The bigger picture is showing how the downtrend line is passing through around the 960 region, this could be insurmountable resistance in the near term and if the downtrend channel drawn is correct, then chances are the target is around 800 for the medium term.

Note also that the linear MACD is approaching zero, if we are in fact in the middle of a bear market rally (as so many suspect), the MACD will begin to turn lower over the next month or so.

SPX Chart - Shorter Picture

The shorter term picture is at an interesting juncture, on the one hand support at 925 - 930 broke during the week, and on the other hand, support around 900 at the 50 and 200 DMA held.

If we can get a close above 930 this week, then the high between 950 and 960 will most likely be tested. Having said that, the MACD is showing negative divergence, which leads me to think that we'll be heading lower at some point soon. In the mean time we can still get a bounce here just to give the crowd the impression that the bull is alive and well. It's a tough one to call but watch for 900 to break in order for the bears to take control.

For this week, support on the SPX is 900 - 910 and resistance 930 - 960.

NDX Chart - Shorter Picture

The Nasdaq fell quickly during the week but found support around 1440. The uptrend channel remains in place and there is potential for this one to climb again.

If Friday's strength continues into the week ahead, we'll most likely close our shorts, as there is potential for a decent run up from here. What we're looking for is a close below 1440 as a sign that the bears are preparing to take control. Until then the bulls have the upper hand.

Note also that the MACD is potentially turning bullish from here. The start of the week should hold the key for the near term.

For the week ahead, support on the NDX is 1400 - 1440 and resistance is 1500.

The VIX Picture

The VIX spiked up early in the week giving the impression that the wheels were about to fall off the market, although by the end of the week it was back to where it finished the prior week.

While the MACD is showing the potential for a resumption of the downtrend, the most likely scenario is that we go sideways a little more and form a good base before heading higher. This scenario favors the probabilities that we'll see a significant drop in the markets within the next few months.

The VIX measures the premiums investors are willing to pay for option contracts and is essentially a measure of fear i.e. the higher the VIX, the higher the fear in the market place. It tends to move inversely with the markets.

Performance

I thought I'd begin a record of performance so that you can compare your own performance to ours. We'll begin with the current open positions:

QQQQ

SPY

Quote of the Week:

I thought I'd give a couple quotes this week for those celebrating Fathers day today:

Small boys become big men through the influence of big men who care about small boys. Fathers Day Quote by: Unknown

My father gave me the greatest gift anyone could give another person, he believed in me. Fathers Day Quote by: Jim Valvano

Feel free to email me at angelo@stockbarometer.com if you have any questions or comments.

If you are receiving these alerts on a free trial, you have access to all of our previous articles and recommendations by clicking here. If you do not recall your username and/or password, please email us at customersupport@stockbarometer.com. If you are interested in continuing to receive our service after your free trial, please click here.

By Angelo Campione

Angelo writes two newsletters. The Advantage Report, which is focused on market timing - if you ’re interested after reading this article, click on the links below to subscribe.


And Advantage Credit Spreads, which is focused on making 6-8% a month using credit spreads - and year to date Angelo has not had a losing month and is working on a 36.5% return through June - a little better than the market, I must say... Again, click on either of the links below if you’d like to try it out.

Important Disclosure
Futures, Options, Mutual Fund, ETF and Equity trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy/sell Futures, Options, Mutual Funds or Equities. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this Web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Performance results are hypothetical. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as a lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Investment Research Group and all individuals affiliated with Investment Research Group assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results.
Investment Research Group (IRG), as a publisher of a financial newsletter of general and regular circulation, cannot tender individual investment advice. Only a registered broker or investment adviser may advise you individually on the suitability and performance of your portfolio or specific investments.
In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and examination of the fact and records relating to such investments. Past performance of our recommendations is not an indication of future performance. The publisher shall have no liability of whatever nature in respect of any claims, damages, loss, or expense arising out of or in connection with the reliance by you on the contents of our Web site, any promotion, published material, alert, or update.
For a complete understanding of the risks associated with trading, see our Risk Disclosure.

© 2009 Copyright Angelo Campione - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules