Stock Market S&P500 Index At a Critical Juncture
Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Jun 07, 2009 - 06:31 PM GMTMarketTimingCycles write: For almost everything in nature you will find Fibonacci relationships. Also in the stock market which is governed by natural cycles we can find (double) Fibonacci relationships between significant highs (highest high/close) and lows(lowest low/close).
Notice that for example in the S&P 500 that since Augustus 2008 the lows and highs are separated from each other in sequential Fibonacci number of weeks: 8-13-21.
This adds to our opinion, as the stock market remains overbought, we arrived at a critical juncture, and if the sequence repeats the next low is expected in the last week of July. If not the next natural low in the next higher Fibonacci sequence: 13-21-34 is due in the end of October or the current cycle will extend and the cycle high now expected will be set in the first week of September.
We have to wait and see which scenario will unfold. We are now at the end of a yearly cycle, and at these junctures cycles can as easily repeat or invert as well. At the end of a cycle there is a window of several weeks in which it is unclear how the cycle will continue its rotation. So be careful in your trading and wait for confirmation.
A (weekly) close below 923.26 on the S&P500 is likely to signal the high has been set. Stay tuned I will post more analysis in the coming days.
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