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Which of these Global Bond Markets is the Most Bearish?

Interest-Rates / International Bond Market May 29, 2009 - 05:23 AM GMT

By: Seven_Days_Ahead

Interest-Rates

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Technical Trader’s view:

TNotes:


US TNOTE JUN 09 DAILY BAR CHART
The drama of this market lies in the pullback through the alltime- highs that was simultaneous with the completion of a clear Double Top/ Continuation Head and Shoulders.The clear and minimum move suggested by the Top is measurable down to 112-16 or so.
(The target is the same for both patterns.)

Bunds:


BUNDS JUN 09 DAILY CHART
This Triple Top has completed too. And the All-Time-High acted as more of a resistance level.
Now left far behind. But note well that the long-term support from prior Highs remain beneath the market. The minimum move implied by the Triple Top is as far as 115.50. But the 118.50-90 band of support should not be underestimated. It may not reverse the move to the  downside. But may slow it up.

Yen Bonds:


YEN BOND JUN 09 DAILY CHART
This is altogether different. The Yen market never made it back up to the All-Time-High.
A small Triangle may have completed: suggesting move down as far as 135.50. Certainly we can say that the bear market in the Yen bonds is concurrent with western markets, yet lacks a clear Top formation to add energy to the bear moves.

We are clear that all three of these markets are bearish in the long and medium term. In the
very short term, the Bund and TNote may both be oversold. But overall, the US TNotes represent the most compelling bear case.

By Mark Sturdy
Seven Days Ahead
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Mark Sturdy, John Lewis & Philip Allwright, write exclusively for Seven Days Ahead a regulated financial advisor selling professional-level technical and macro analysis and high-performing trade recommendations with detailed risk control for banks, hedge funds, and expert private investors around the world. Check out our subscriptions.

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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


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