Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Obama: the Grand Illusionist

Politics / US Politics Apr 21, 2009 - 07:44 AM GMT

By: Michael_Pento

Politics

President Obama is smooth. He has an incomparable ability to say the correct thing and then doing the exact opposite. For instance, he says the United States cannot continue the boom bust cycle of economic activity and must repent from its proclivity to engender GDP growth off the back of building asset bubbles. He also contends that George W. Bush was disingenuously hiding the size of the true deficit by keeping certain items off budget. In those two statements he is completely correct.


However, he uses the magician’s tactic of deflection to sell his economic gimmickry. First Obama directs your attention towards his promise of removing Bush’s budget tricks and repudiating his fiscal irresponsibility, but then whips out his smoke and mirrors of trillion dollar deficits and accounting games.

Taking a closer look at how the President arrives at his rosy projection of cutting the deficit to “just” $530 billion by the end of 2013 you find he accomplishes it not by keeping expenditures off budget, like his processor, but by utilizing grossly unrealistic economic growth assumptions.

Mr. Obama assumes the contraction in GDP for 2009 will be only 1.2%. That’s a big improvement from the -6.34% annual rate drop of last quarter and far better than the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) prediction of -2.2% growth for 2009. Then from there things get truly surreal. The Obama administration predicts GDP growth for 2010 will rebound to 3.2% and then increase by more than 4% for each of the next three years!

How realistic you ask is a 4% growth rate in GDP for the years 2011-2013? Well, let’s look at the past 11 years for some guidance. Starting from the beginning of 1998 thru Q4 of 2008, the average quarterly GDP growth rate was 2.17%. And the average yearly growth rate was just 2.7%. What’s truly amazing about the growth rate over the last 11 years (which was well below trend growth of 3%) is that it encompassed two of the biggest manias in the history of the United States—the equity bubble of the late 90’s and real estate bubble in the middle of this decade. You see, once you know the trick it’s easy.

If you want to make deficits appear smaller, just pretend growth will be higher than what should be responsibly expected. Then simply bury your growth expectations in the fine print.

Perhaps part of Obama’s magical act of producing well above trend GDP growth will be to conjure up another asset bubble that equals or rivals that of the previous two. But the sad truth is that whether you use Obama’s overly optimistic projections or that of the CBO’s, deficits as a percentage of GDP will eclipse 100% of total output by 2019 (a record outside the years just after the end of WWll). But during the post war era we controlled the entire world’s manufacturing base and were not facing that wave of entitlement spending which looms straight ahead. Which means the consequences of such an onerous debt will be far dire than what was experienced 65 years ago.

When the veil of illusion is dropped the truth behind what this administration will produce is revealed. Record debt, lack luster growth and robust inflation will be the products of runaway spending and increased government intrusion into the free market. Barack Obama wants you to believe he is a fiscal conservative and that he is providing honesty and transparency in the government. The Administration’s trick is to make opacity appear as transparency and mendacity to appear as truth. But their performance is best viewed through gold (not rose) colored glasses.

*Tired of paying fees while your account value plummets? Learn about our new performance-based pricing.

Be sure to listen in on my Mid-Week Reality Check

Michael Pento
Senior Market Strategist
Delta Global Advisors
800-485-1220
mpento@deltaga.com
www.deltaga.com

With more than 16 years of industry experience, Michael Pento acts as senior market strategist for Delta Global Advisors and is a contributing writer for GreenFaucet.com . He is a well-established specialist in the Austrian School of economic theory and a regular guest on CNBC and other national media outlets. Mr. Pento has worked on the floor of the N.Y.S.E. as well as serving as vice president of investments for GunnAllen Financial immediately prior to joining Delta Global.

© 2009 Copyright Michael Pento - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Pento Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in