Why Warren Buffett Doesn’t Matter, Lessons in Investor Sheep Herding
InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest Apr 16, 2009 - 05:11 PM GMTBy: Mike_Stathis
Without a doubt, Warren Buffet is one of the leading investors in the world. There’s no disputing that. But let’s face it. His skills have been over-exaggerated by the media. Of more detriment, the media continues to deliver the message that what Buffett invests in matters to you. As you will see, he has been made into a god-like figure by the financial media for very precise reasons.
Journalists lacking investment expertise often reference Buffett as a way to add credibility by association. Ultimately, they utilize the Buffett “brand name” to make money. An interview with Buffett draws a large audience because the media has convinced the herd that what he says or does actually matters to them. And this translates into huge advertisement opportunities for those who sell this fantasy.
You’ve probably seen online ads telling you how you can “get in” on the “next Berkshire Hathaway” by subscribing to a service that discloses what Buffett is buying. Once again, these people are trying to make money from you by leveraging the Buffett name. They understand the marketing power behind investment celebrities. They realize the sheep will be drawn to the Buffett name because the media has brainwashed them to think they can profit by piggybacking onto his investments.
Therefore, they’ll be willing to pay for information disclosing what he has invested in. These are the same sheep that are always looking for easy money. They are the same suckers who watch CNBC and FBN. Perhaps you know some of them personally. The farce is that these services obtain Berkshire Hathaway holdings from public filings that anyone can access for free. In fact, there are many websites that list what Buffett has bought and sold. And they provide this information for free. But who cares anyway? I certainly don’t because what Buffett invests in is irrelevant for individual investors, as you shall see.
Authors who know little about investing also use the Buffett name on book titles. Or they’ll reference Buffett in their books because they know most people are looking for some shortcut to investment success. As a result, these books often sell well. In reality they rarely deliver any real value. But most readers fail to realize the uselessness of these books. They’ve been fooled into thinking these books are valuable because the author has connected them with Buffett. It’s a basic psychological trick used in branding. Sophisticated investors aren’t fooled by this gimmick.
Publishers are also in on this marketing scam. In fact, they determine book titles. Always remember this. If a person has to use big names to promote something, it almost always means they have no idea what they’re talking about. They’re simply leveraging well-known names to create a “success by association” mentality. Hollywood uses the same tactics to mask their biggest flops. Several years ago, one of the Batman sequels featured countless “big name” stars. Their marketing strategy was focused entirely on promoting these stars. I already knew it would be a dud because they were promoting the actors more than anything else. That told me the movie couldn’t stand on its own merit and needed the marketing clout of big names. I was right. Hollywood pulls this stunt all of the time. Why do you think Ben Affleck and “J-Lo” became a “hot item” a few years ago? In my opinion, their marriage was a publicity stunt (many like most Hollywood marriages) to try and get people watch their newly-released movie, Gigli. Apparently, it didn’t work too well since the movie was a huge flop. As you will recall, they divorced shortly thereafter. Why do you think most Hollywood marriages are so short? Because they are largely publicity stunts.
These are just a few examples of the typical tactics used by the media. All you have to do is look and you’ll see examples of this all over the place. If you fall for these tricks, you’re a sheep. But don’t feel bad, because I feel for the same deception a few times when I was a novice. All that matters now is that I learned from my previous ignorance. Hopefully, you’ll learn from yours.
One way to see through the smoke is to realize that what Buffett buys has no bearing on you. Certainly, Buffett is great value investor. But once you understand a few things, you might not be that impressed by him. You see, Buffett invests in businesses that generate large cash flows. This provides Berkshire Hathaway with cash on-hand to take advantage of buying opportunities. Every time his favorite stocks go down he buys more, lowering the cost basis. But he doesn’t buy risky stocks. He doesn’t need to. He buys well-known, conservative blue chips. He doesn’t know how to use market timing strategies. He doesn’t need to (although he would be a much better investor). He just buys more of his favorite gems when they decline in price.
Buffett might buy Johnson & Johnson at $70. You might follow his lead and buy some for yourself. But what happens when the stock falls to $35? Buffett will be able to buy enough to lower his cost basis to $36 if he wants. You can’t do that. Even if you had enough cash to do it, it’s unlikely you would because you hadn’t prepared for that possibility in advance.
The insurance industry is one of the best cash flow machines in the world. Now you know why Berkshire owns Geico. This cost-basis lowering approach is similar to that used by large mutual funds and pensions. Similar to Buffett, they also focus on buying large, conservative companies. Mutual fund managers aren’t able to get out of the market during sell-offs. In other words, they really don’t have any ways to reduce market risk. Instead, they use their continuous supply of cash to lower the cost basis of their holdings. During a bull market anyone can do well using that strategy. All it takes is a large pool of cash, some common sense and a conservative approach. The only problem is this strategy can be disastrous during bear markets because their supply of cash declines because investors tend sell.
Buffett also gets exclusive investment deals. Instead of buying a stock, he might purchase the convertible bonds with warrants. This is usually a much better deal than a direct purchase of the common stock. It certainly has less risk. Or he might pay below-market rates for securities. These transactions are done privately or out of the market, shielding these opportunities from individual investors.
Buffett also buys entire companies or takes controlling interests so he can influence managerial decisions. That makes Buffett an active investor because he has direct control over the companies he invests in. We can’t do that. We are passive investors. Therefore, it’s critical for us to actively manage our securities positions. One of the best ways to do that is to reduce market risk by selling in the early stages of a bear market.
Finally, what Buffett invests in might not be suitable for you or me because our investment objectives, horizons and financial resources are different. If you had an infinite investment horizon and hundreds of businesses that generated huge cash flows, you’d probably deliver nice returns if you were offered exclusive deals and used dollar-cost averaging for a portfolio of safe stocks like Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson.
All of these considerations aside, let’s concede that Buffett is a great value investor. But he’s not so good at tech investing, derivatives, foreign currencies, emerging markets. And his investment management skills are limited to diversification and lowering the cost basis of his positions. He certainly doesn’t have expertise in shorting or market timing techniques. But remember, he doesn’t have to.
In all fairness, Buffett is very good at distressed securities analysis. Most important, he knows what he does not know and (usually) stays away from uncertainty. But even Buffett has made some big investment mistakes, as history shows. He’s only human after all. But there is one very valuable thing to learn from Buffett. Stick with what you’re good at and don’t wander into territories you’re less knowledgeable in. If you’re able to do that, you’ll have many more winners than losers over time. This approach will help you develop consistency – one of the keys to investment success.
If you have confidence in Buffett, just buy Berkshire Hathaway, plain and simple. I have no interest in Berkshire for a very good reason. It’s a value fund but it doesn’t distribute cash dividends. This violates one of the basic tenants of investing. Even Buffett would have a difficult time explaining why a value fund distributes no cash dividends. Buffett should let the investors decide whether they want him to reinvest their dividends.
You certainly aren’t going to hear the media criticize the lack of cash dividends from Berkshire Hathaway because they’re too ignorant to see anything but perfection from Buffett. Even if they realized this controversy, they wouldn’t address it because Buffett is their goose. And every time he gives an interview, he lays golden eggs in the form of ad revenues. If you want to continue this analysis, check my website and I'll show you how the media uses Buffett to make money. http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-144.html
If you are a serious investor seeking to raise your investment intelligence, you should get my latest book “The Wall Street Investment Bible, Volume I.”
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By Mike Stathis
www.avaresearch.com
Copyright © 2009. All Rights Reserved. Mike Stathis.
Mike Stathis is the Managing Principal of Apex Venture Advisors , a business and investment intelligence firm serving the needs of venture firms, corporations and hedge funds on a variety of projects. Mike's work in the private markets includes valuation analysis, deal structuring, and business strategy. In the public markets he has assisted hedge funds with investment strategy, valuation analysis, market forecasting, risk management, and distressed securities analysis. Prior to Apex Advisors, Mike worked at UBS and Bear Stearns, focusing on asset management and merchant banking.
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