Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Government Bond Markets Plunge Under Weight of Debt Issurance / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Government bonds dominated action on financial markets during the past holiday-shortened week, as angst about inflation and massive issuance propelled yields to six-month highs in the US, Europe and Japan.
Bonds and other safe-haven assets such as the US dollar were out of favor as signs of a bottoming of global economies, albeit tentative, emboldened investors’ appetite for reflation trades like equities and commodities, including oil and precious metals.
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Friday, May 29, 2009
The Next Debt Landslide: Lessons from Andrew Carnegie / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Doug_Wakefield
Here we are, sitting in our homes or businesses reading commentary about the craziness of the world in which we live. While our collective response to rising markets has always been, “this is good,” never before have we been asked to trust so implicitly in ideas that are so far removed from the lessons of world history. While our political and financial leaders keep telling us that the capacity for debt production is eternal, Andrew Carnegie disagrees. If your friends don’t recognize that name, remind them that Carnegie had a little money in the 1800s. Carnegie Hall, Carnegie Mellon University, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Education all bear his name.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Treasury Bond TLT ETF Rallying / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
It is interesting that the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) is rallying with the commodity sector today. Yes, the TLTs are very oversold, so let’s not read too much into today’s strength. However, I am suspicious that the strength just might be a reflection of anticipated Fed activity and buying interest in the long end – to prevent a back-up in mortgage rates and/or a derailment of fledgling economic recovery regardless of an increase in inflationary perceptions.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Why Government Bonds Are No Longer A Safe Investment / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: With budget deficits on the rise and inflation almost certain to follow, it’s getting easier to see why British or U.S. government bonds are no longer a truly safe investment.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Which of these Global Bond Markets is the Most Bearish? / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Technical Trader’s view:
TNotes:
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Thursday, May 28, 2009
Mortgage Market Locks Up as Interest Rates Soar / Interest-Rates / Mortgages
By: Mike_Shedlock
Yesterday 10 year treasury yields went soaring and the mortgage market literally seized up. Mark Hanson at the Field Check Group has this report that I can share.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Massacred; Yield Curve Steepest On Record / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bernanke cannot have his cake and eat it too. If the economy is recovering the yield curve should steepen. And steepen it has. The Yield Curve Is Steepest On Record.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Quantitative Easing Pushes U.S. Treasury Bonds Into Secular Bear Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
A monthly close over 3.432% confirms the secular trend change in the 10 year Treasury bond that I have been expecting and writing about for over 6 months. I am expecting yields pressures to persist for the next 12 months.
Monday, May 25, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond market Severely Damaged / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market was severely damaged last week. The theme from my previous note about the continued deterioration of the credit quality of government bonds and the consequent increase in real yields is certainly coming to fruition in swift fashion. It all started on Wednesday when the Standard and Poor’s rating agency issued a credit watch (with negative implications – i.e. potential downgrade from the best available AAA rating) for bonds issued by the United Kingdom – also known as Gilts.
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Sunday, May 24, 2009
Fed Admits No Credit Crisis Bailouts TARP Exit Strategy / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Mike_Shedlock
Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Donald Kohn is yapping complete nonsense about interest rates floors, the Fed's balance sheet, risk, exit strategies and other items.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets Forcing Governments Debt Hand / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Michael_Pento
Last week Standard and Poor’s announced that the AAA credit outlook of the United Kingdom was lowered to “negative” from “stable.” The action caused many in the US, including Bill Gross, to impugn the United States’ AAA credit rating and wonder if the same devaluation should be applicable here.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Triple-A Credit Rating or Bond Markets Bust? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andy_Sutton
If you take a short walk down memory lane, it will not take you very long to find the carcass of New Century Financial along the side of the road back in March 2007. It would be a full 12 months before the word recession would be mentioned in the US mainstream media and stock markets would roar into their all-time highs six months after the disintegration of New Century. Much of the early portion of the credit crisis as it was called focused on mortgages and after that, mortgage-backed securities. Wow, haven’t heard that term in a while, have we?
Friday, May 22, 2009
Investors Should Seek Maximum Safety in U.S. Treasury Bill ETF's / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Ron Rowland writes: I’ve just finished reading Martin’s new book, The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide. I highly recommend it. Martin says — and he’s exactly right — that the safest place in the world for your money is U.S. Treasury bills. In his book you’ll find a very handy list of money market funds that invest strictly in short-term Treasury securities: No commercial paper, bank notes, or other risky bonds.
Friday, May 22, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Bear Market Picking Up Steam? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pollaro
At the risk of repeating myself, this author is bearish on long dated US Treasuries. Yes, despite the best efforts of the Fed to monetize the federal government’s ballooning borrowing needs and hold long rates at bay, this author is bearish on long dated US Treasuries.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Government Debt Downgrades vs. Gold / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: Mike_Shedlock
The word for today is "downgrade". Inquiring minds may wish to count the instances of downgrade in the following paragraphs.
UK and US Debt Face Downgrades
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Delusions of Endless Credit Something Very Bad is Going to Happen / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: LewRockwell
Richard Daughty writes: James Howard Kunstler, famous author and speaker, opines, “For now, the ‘bottom’ is in” which took me completely by surprise! I mean, how could anybody in their Right Freaking Mind (RFM) think that “the bottom is in” as far as the economy is concerned?
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Are We ‘Back from the Fiscal Abyss’ as Dallas Fed Claims? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Lorimer_Wilson
Richard W. Fisher, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, was once one of the most expressive economist imaginable often using graphic and sensationalist words and expressions to get our attention when describing the ‘nightmarish predicament’ and ‘monstrous challenge’ that has finally engulfed us. It was only a year ago that he warned that a ‘frightful storm is brewing’ – ‘the mother of all financial storms’ – that could well plunge the U.S. government deeper into a ‘fiscal abyss’ causing the country to become submerged in a ‘vast fiscal chasm’. Fisher has not always been so dramatic in spite of saying recently ‘I am a Texan and Texans speak plainly and directly’ and he is not being very direct these days either.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Barrons on U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Bursting / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
This is the second cover story in 5 months for Barron's on the bursting of the bubble in Treasury yields. I have been closely following the yield on the 10 year Treasury since December, 2008, and I would agree that Treasury yields are ripe for a secular trend change. However, this won't be confirmed until there is a monthly close over 3.43% in yield.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Credit Crisis Freeze Thawing Following Massive Reflation Efforts / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Are the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections having the desired effect of unclogging credit markets and restoring confidence in the world’s financial system? This is precisely what the “Credit Crisis Watch” is all about - a review of a number of measures in order to ascertain to what extent the thawing of credit markets is taking place.
First up is the LIBOR rate. This is the interest rate banks charge each other for one-month, three-month, six-month and one-year loans. LIBOR is an acronym for “London InterBank Offered Rate” and is the rate charged by London banks. This rate is then published and used as the benchmark for bank rates around the world.
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Tuesday, May 19, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Recovery from Deeply Oversold Levels / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market recovered from deeply oversold levels last week. Former support at 3% on the 10 Year Treasury Note will be the first major resistance level to watch. The yield curve on the other hand maintained its steepness as yields declined across the maturity spectrum. The economic data might look good from far but it is far from good so the main concern for the bond market is not an imminent recovery but a continued deterioration of the credit quality of government bonds as more and more of the excesses of this enormous credit bubble continue to migrate from the private to the public sector. Look for real yields to expand.
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