Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
A Requiem for the Bond Market / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Michael_Pento
The central banks of Japan and the U.S. are killing the private market for government debt. The massive and unprecedented bon-buying programs for Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) and Treasuries have driven yields so low that investors are now simply stepping aside from involvement in that market entirely.
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Sunday, November 17, 2013
Code Red - The Unintended Consequences of ZIRP, Zero Interest Rates Policy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
Yellen's coronation was this week. Art Cashin mused that it was a wonder some senator did not bring her a corsage: it was that type of confirmation hearing. There were a few interesting questions and answers, but by and large we heard what we already knew. And what we know is that monetary policy is going to be aggressively biased to the easy side for years, or at least that is the current plan. Far more revealing than the testimony we heard on Thursday were the two very important papers that were released last week by the two most senior and respected Federal Reserve staff economists. As Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs reasoned, it is not credible to believe that these papers and the thinking that went into them were not broadly approved by both Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.
Sunday, November 17, 2013
U.S. Treasury Bond Markets Snapshot Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: What’s New: I’ve updated the charts below through today’s close. The yield on the 10-year note finished the week at 2.71%, which is 128 bps above its 1.43% all-time closing low on July 25th of last year but 13 bps below its interim closing high on September 5th.
Friday, November 15, 2013
Keep Your Eye on Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Browne
Last month, Americans were transfixed by the amateur theatrics undertaken by the Washington political establishment in connection with the debt ceiling crisis. The bad faith, poor tactics and wholesale avoidance of reality were offered by all players in very large doses. When the Republican leadership finally capitulated (thereby bringing down the curtain on the tawdry production), it soon became apparent that sound and fury had signified nothing except another exercise in can kicking. Public approval of Congress sank to the lowest level on record, and has only dissipated due to the unmitigated disaster of the Obamacare launch. But as bad as domestic approval has become, the behavior of the U.S. government has played far worse internationally.
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Friday, November 15, 2013
Option Probabilities Spell Possible Trouble for U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / Options & Warrants
By: J_W_Jones
The incredible rally in equities in 2013 has begun to stir concern among many that the stock market is now in a bubble. We have entered the euphoric stage of this bull market and equity prices cannot and will not go lower according to some talking heads in the financial punditry.
While chatter is starting to heat up that equities are in a bubble, the real bubble seems to be ignored for the most part. The larger, more concerning bubble is in the Treasury marketplace where the Federal Reserve continues to print money to purchase treasury bonds to help keep interest rates artificially low.
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Tuesday, November 12, 2013
U.S. Treasury Ramps Up The Zimbabwe Style Money Printing Press / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Steve_St_Angelo
It looks like the U.S. Treasury is learning a few tricks from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe as it ramps up its printing press. In just a few years, the U.S. Department of Treasury Bureau of Engraving & Printing has substantially increased the printing of its largest valued Federal Reserve Note -- the $100 bill.
Monday, November 11, 2013
The Fed’s Dilemma, What Would Yellen Do? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: John_Mauldin
The US Senate Banking Committee will hold hearings on Thursday, November 14, on the nomination of Janet Yellen for Federal Reserve chair. There will be the usual softball questions, for example, "Do you think high unemployment is a problem in the United States and if so what do you intend to do about it?" (which allows a senator to express his concern over unemployment and for the nominee to agree that it's a problem). Or the always popular question, "What is the basis under which you would continue to hold interest rates at their current low level?" – as if she would answer anything other than, "Any future policy decision is of course data-dependent" or some variation on that response. Boring.
Friday, November 08, 2013
Janet Yellen's Mission Impossible / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Peter_Schiff
Most market watchers expect that Janet Yellen will grapple with two major tasks once she takes the helm at the Federal Reserve in 2014: deciding on the appropriate timing and intensity of the Fed's quantitative easing taper strategy, and unwinding the Fed's enormous $4 trillion balance sheet (without creating huge losses in the value of its portfolio). In reality both assignments are far more difficult than just about anyone understands or admits.
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Monday, November 04, 2013
What the Fed Doesn't Want You to See / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes: Ever heard of the Taylor Rule?
Not many people have, but the folks at the U.S. Federal Reserve are very familiar with it - and they'd probably prefer that this highly respected guideline for the federal funds rate languish in obscurity.
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Monday, November 04, 2013
U.S. National Debt to Double from $17.0 trillion to $34.0 Trillion? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes:
Can it be true?
The U.S. Department of the Treasury has reported that for the federal government’s fiscal 2013 year, which ended on September 30, 2013, the U.S. government budget deficit was $680 billion—the smallest budget deficit in five years. (Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service, October 30, 2013.)
Sunday, November 03, 2013
U.S. Treasury Yields in Perspective / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: Let’s have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range has been astonishing. The stagflation that set in after the 1973 Oil Embargo was finally ended after Paul Volcker raised the FFR to 20.06%.
Monday, October 28, 2013
The Debt Situation in Europe and the U.S. Video / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2013
By: EWI
In this video clip from Steve Hochberg's "Don't Get Caught Holding the Bag" presentation, recorded at the San Francisco MoneyShow, Elliott Wave International's Chief Market Analyst addresses a popular question we get at EWI. Enjoy this insight from Hochberg, then take a few minutes to learn how you can get Elliott Wave International's newest free report: How to Protect Your Money When the U.S. Debt Bill Comes Due.
Sunday, October 27, 2013
Code Red - Central Bankers Gone Wild / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: John_Mauldin
I wasn't the only person coming out with a book this week (much more on that at the end of the letter). Alan Greenspan hit the street with The Map and the Territory. Greenspan left Bernanke and Yellen a map, all right, but in many ways the Fed (along with central banks worldwide) proceeded to throw the map away and march off into totally unexplored territory. Under pressure since the Great Recession hit in 2007, they abandoned traditional monetary policy principles in favor of a new direction: print, buy, and hope that growth will follow. If aggressive asset purchases fail to promote growth, Chairman Bernanke and his disciples (soon to be Janet Yellen and the boys) respond by upping the pace. That was appropriate in 2008 and 2009 and maybe even in 2010, but not today.
Saturday, October 26, 2013
Money Printing Debt Monetization Madness Continues / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Andy_Sutton
Now that another annoying gut check moment is safely in the rearview mirror, we can all get back to the business of filling the punch bowl yet another time. Yep, once again, we’ve proven ourselves to be among the dimmest of bulbs and are going right back to the bag of tricks that isn’t working anymore, but nobody seems to be noticing that – at least not on a meaningful level. Yes, I’m referring to the umpteenth opening of the monetary spigots announced gleefully in the mainstream press this week. The whole world is awash in money, every one is rich, and the party is bound to go on for at least another hundred years if you listen to the misinformation misfit mafia.
Thursday, October 24, 2013
U.S. Debt Dangerous Situation / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Fred_Sheehan
In May 2013, the U.S. Treasury had spent up to its statutory debt limit. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew wrote House Speaker Boehner that the Treasury would "begin implementing the standard set of extraordinary measures that allows the Treasury to continue to borrow and spend even after it has hit the legal debt limit."
Through October 16, 2013, the Daily Treasury Statement showed "Total Public Debt Subject to Limit" at $16,699,396. The "16" is trillions; the numbers are in millions. The "Statutory Debt Limit" (the next line on the Daily Treasury Statement), showed, day-in and day-out: "$16,699,421. The difference was $25,000,000: This figure adds back the zeros not shown on the daily posting.
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Interest Rates 60 Year Cycle Low / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: readtheticker
The cost if capital is rising, the big cycles are rolling over. Today's debt slaves will not be happy.
For the fundamental trader a good reason that interest rates are on the long trend higher can be found via Steven Roach comments on a change in China.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Janet Yellen the U.S. Interest Rates Hawk? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Well, it’s official. President Obama has picked Janet Yellen as his nominee to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. In the months leading up to this announcement, the press unanimously dubbed Yellen the Queen of the Doves, pointing to her reluctance to roll back the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program. As it turns out, however, Yellen is hardly the dove she is made out to be. Indeed, when it comes to money supply, Dr. Yellen seems, well, downright hawkish.
Friday, October 18, 2013
U.S. Debt Credit Rating Downgraded to Same Level as Brazil? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: The U.S. government, after winning World War II for the Allies, was very convincing. It told central banks around the world that they should hold the U.S. dollar as their reserve currency instead of gold, based on the idea the U.S. dollar would be backed by gold. Only limited amounts of U.S. dollars could be printed, because the currency was tied to gold bullion. Central banks bought into the idea.
Friday, October 18, 2013
Blackrock - Impact of the Debt Ceiling Debate on the Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Bloomberg
BlackRock Chairman & CEO Larry Fink appeared on Bloomberg Television's "Market Makers" today, where he told hosts Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle that stock markets may decline as a result of the debt ceiling debate. He said, "I'm much more worried about the U.S. now than the last time I was on your show...We are going to see a lower equity market and a longer period of lower rates" if earnings start to deteriorate in the fourth quarter following the stalemate in Washington.
Sunday, October 13, 2013
Terrible News for Retirees - Could You Stand Low Interest Rates for the Next 20 Years? / Interest-Rates / Pensions & Retirement
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: I couldn't believe it...
It was huge news last week for the financial markets... but nobody reported it.
I guess nobody wanted to believe it... Maybe it was so extreme that nobody could even process that it was possible.
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