Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, November 04, 2011
U.S. Jobs Market Won't Normalize Until At Least 2023 / Economics / Employment
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Disgruntled American workers have yet another reason for pessimism: At the current rate of job creation, the U.S. unemployment rate will not fall back to "normal" levels - below 6% - until 2023.
Through most of this year the U.S. economy has managed to create about 119,000 jobs per month, but that's barely enough to keep pace with population growth. Only job creation levels of well over 120,000 jobs per month will drive down the 9.1% unemployment rate.
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Friday, November 04, 2011
Is Debt Necessary for Economic Recovery? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
Since the crisis began, one of the dominant themes in arguments over proper government policy has been the Keynesian view that it is crucial to prop up total spending. The added twist during this particular recession is the crushing burden of private-sector debt, which allegedly makes it all the more urgent for governments to run fiscal deficits.
Friday, November 04, 2011
U.S. Economic Productivity Improves, Labor Cost Remains Contained / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Productivity of the U.S. economy rose 3.1% in the third quarter, after posting decline in the first-half of the year. The downside of the improvement in productivity in the present environment is that it prevents firms from increasing payrolls.
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Thursday, November 03, 2011
Look at the U.S. Postal Service and see the future of the Federal Government / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
Niall Ferguson is my favorite Establishment analyst, because he is an historian who understands a lot about free markets. He writes for the literati. He starred in a PBS series that was worth viewing, and another is scheduled in 2012. He teaches at Harvard University and the Harvard Business School.
He thinks America is running an empire, and he thinks it will not survive much longer. As with all empires, it is going to run out of wealth to support it. So, when he wrote a piece for the Daily Beast, Newsweek, I read it.
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Wednesday, November 02, 2011
Will Greece 50% Debt Default Plan Fix the Euro-zone? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Frank_Shostak
Last Thursday, October 27, European leaders secured an agreement from eurozone banks to take a 50 percent loss on the face value of their Greek debt. The leaders also set in place a plan to force banks to raise new capital to insulate them from potential sovereign-debt defaults.
The banks must meet 9 percent capital reserves by June 30, 2012. It is estimated banks' capital needs will stand at 106 billion euros.
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Tuesday, November 01, 2011
How China Drives the Global Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
Unless investors get spooked today during Halloween trading, the S&P 500 Index will post its second-best month since the post-World War II era, according to a report published by GaveKal Research. The last time markets rallied so strongly, Gerald Ford had recently moved into the White House and Muhammad Ali "rumbled in the jungle" with George Foreman.
Monday, October 31, 2011
Why 7 Billionth Person's Birthday Is Nothing to Celebrate / Economics / Demographics
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
The world's 7 billionth person is likely to be born today (Monday).
However, this birthday isn't something to celebrate.
Since the global population passed 6 billion only in late 1999, we've added more than 80 million people each year on average. And the environmental footprint of those people is expanding rapidly as emerging market populations modernize.
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Monday, October 31, 2011
Is the U.S. Consumer Spending Surge a 'Dance of Economic Death'? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Clif_Droke
The latest economic headline came as a surprise to the pundits, though it actually makes perfect sense from a psychological standpoint. On Friday the Associated Press informed us of "Americans spending more with income almost flat," per the headline. At first glance this seems almost counterintuitive, yet the sub-heading of this A.P. story put it into perspective: "Americans find tiny returns on savings and decide to spend."
Monday, October 31, 2011
Sectors Most Likely To Gain Jobs By 2015 / Economics / Employment
By: EconMatters
The job market is terrible, and the situation isn’t getting any better. The U.S. national unemployment rate is stagnant at 9.1% in September, and the jobs picture across America at state level didn't change much either, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Sunday, October 30, 2011
Happy 7th Billion Person Planet Earth / Economics / Demographics
By: Trader_Mark
If the United Nations estimates are anywhere near correct, today marks the day the world's population hits 7 billion. Could be off a few days one way or the other, but you get the gist. I actually did a story about this in 2008 - looks like it came a few months earlier than predicted! [Jun 20, 2008: World Population to Hit 7 Billion by 2012] Obviously this is not a 'fast money' trading event, but considering it was just twelve years ago the planet hit 6 billion, it's a pretty amazing milestone. Projections are for another two billion in about 2 generations (2050ish). From an investing perspective the growth of the world's middle class is an important development, as is the wage/labor pressure from hundreds of millions continuing to flood the world's labor markets. Tom Stevenson from Fidelity takes a look at three key outcomes from this, some of which we've discussed quite a bit a few years ago. Note - Nebraska farmland is up 20-30% year over year, as the 'farmland' trade is one of the big long term winners.
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Sunday, October 30, 2011
Strawberry Fields Finance, Debt Growth - Economic Contraction / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Andrew_McKillop
Long ago the Beatles sang that nothing is real but its nothing to get hung about. In the global finance system however, cracking sounds are real and able to mightily hang up business as usual. Europe's sovereign debt financing charade has reached daily heights of unreality as the Greek crisis shifts to rising bond rates on Italian debt, with Spanish, French - and German - debt financing crises promised, or threatened for later on. Maybe soon.
Saturday, October 29, 2011
U.S. Consumer Spending is Likely to Show Tepid Growth Once Again / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real consumer spending increased 0.5% in September after a steady reading in August. In the third quarter, consumer spending increased at an annual rate of 2.4% vs. 0.7% in the second quarter. At first blush this is impressive, but digging further leads to a different story. The saving rate of households fell to 3.6% in September, putting the quarterly average at 4.1% vs. 5.0% in the first-half of the year.
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Friday, October 28, 2011
U.S. Real GDP Momentum Pickup Buys Time Before Fed Acts Again / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real gross domestic product (GDP) of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% in the third quarter after registering an abysmally slow performance in the first-half of the year (+0.9%). The headline and details of the third quarter GDP report are both encouraging given that considerations of a double dip surfaced in recent weeks.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Near Recession Low in October / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped 6.6 points to 39.8 in October. This reading is approaching the recession low of 25.3 recorded in February 2009. The Present Situation Index fell 7.0 points to 26.3, while the Expectations Index dropped to 48.7 from 55.1 in September. Essentially, the latest consumer confidence numbers are raising a red flag in an already weak economic environment.
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
The Real Debt Crisis Contagion Risk / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Dr_Martenson
Around here we like to track things from the outside in, as the initial movements at the periphery tend to give us an early warning of when things might go wrong at the center. It is always the marginal country, weakest stock in a sector, or fringe population that gives us the early warning that trouble is afoot. For example, rising food stamp utilization and poverty levels in the US indicate that economic hardship is progressing from the lower socioeconomic levels up towards the center -- that is, from the outside in.
Monday, October 24, 2011
Savings, The Paradox of Thrift Debunked / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Colin_Twiggs
Ever since John Maynard Keynes popularized the Paradox of Thrift, economists, central bankers and politicians have labored under the misapprehension that high levels of savings are bad for the economy and inhibit growth. The Paradox of Thrift simply states: Increased savings means there are less buyers for goods produced, so the nation as a whole will tend to produce less.
Monday, October 24, 2011
The Great Depression 80 Years Later, Same Culprits, Same Rage / Economics / Economic Depression
By: James_Quinn
The young man stands on the edge of his porch
The days were short and the father was gone
There was no one in the town and no one in the field
This dusty barren land had given all it could yield
I've been kicked off my land at the age of sixteen
And I have no idea where else my heart could have been
I placed all my trust at the foot of this hill
And now I am sure my heart can never be still
So collect your courage and collect your horse
And pray you never feel this same kind of remorse
Dust Bowl Dance - Mumford & Sons
Sunday, October 23, 2011
Economic Growth Is Obsolete / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andrew_McKillop
The last 'classic economic growth interval' can be almost exactly defined as the years 2004-2007.
After that, we enter a zone of permanent disaster for the late, unlamented by myself, Growth Economy which can only and does only operate in a series of boom-slump cycles. What we have now, since 2008 is however different: this slump is vastly greater than the nicely doctored official economic numbers can show. True numbers would not only be terrifying, but also hard to believe.
Saturday, October 22, 2011
Revisionist History and the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Andy_Sutton
Over the past several years, the term ‘Great Depression’ has made a grand re-entry into the American mainstream and has as a consequence become perhaps one of the most misunderstood terms. We are told it was everything that it wasn’t and that it wasn’t everything that it was. Like many important historical events, there is a good bit of revisionist history at work with regards to those dark 12 years in American history when it seemed as though there was nothing but despair and governments tripping over themselves to fix something they didn’t have the tools or the business monkeying with in the first place. Think of it like a butcher going to work on the engine of a ’57 Chevy with baseball bat. The results are predictable.
Saturday, October 22, 2011
Why the U.S. Recession Forecasters Are Wrong (For Now) / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Clif_Droke
Speculation over the direction of the economy continues to take center stage. With the presidential election coming up in 2012, the economy will undoubtedly be the central issue on the campaign trail and will receive even more attention than it has up until now. Many analysts have made waves lately in forecasting a "double dip" recession, with at least a couple of high profile analysts claiming the recession has already arrived.