Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Eye on U.S. Dollar vs Commodity Index / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Paulenoff
One chart set-up that we need to watch closely in the coming hours and days is the comparison of the dollar and commodity indexes, as their directional price implications could have a major impact on a cross-section of markets.
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Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Chinese Dragon To Unshackle Renminbi? / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
By: Axel_Merk
With the Year of the Dragon around the corner, will the renminbi be unshackled? Will there be a surge in domestic consumption, or will a housing bust weigh on the economy, dragging down global economic growth? To understand how dynamics may play out in China, try to put yourself into the shoes of the proverbial Chinese consumer. Better yet, put yourself into hundreds of millions of such shoes…
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
U.S. Dollar Premature Obituaries / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Professor_Emeritus
It is open season for wild monetary prognostications. More premature obituaries on the dollar have been posted on the Internet. For example, see Jim Willie's The US Dollar Paper Tiger (Gold-Eagle, January 11) with epitaphs like "the U.S. dollar rising to the cemetery", or "dollar death dance". Or see another article, Jeff Nielsen's entitled Maximum Fraud in U.S. Treasurys (Gold-Eagle, January 3). It betrays maximum misunderstanding about keeping the dollar on a life-support system. It assumes that the Fed and the U.S. Treasury are fighting tooth and nail to keep the value of government debt high lest it collapse in want of support from Japan, China, and other countries.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
U.S. Dollar Threats, the Paper Tiger / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Events in the last decade displayed a vigorous effort to defend the USDollar. The rogue nation of Iraq sold crude oil in Euros for three years, until they were liberated. Its tyrant was a scourge to be sure. Weapons of financial mass destruction seem to have replaced the traditional type, the new variety being derivatives, mortgage bonds, and even sovereign bonds from weak nations. Newer weapons from the United States feature extended hands from clearing house fronts that snatch and grab segregated private accounts, and backdoor raids of exchange traded fund precious metal. Let's not overlook the more frontal assault weapons deployed like unseating Qaddafi and capturing his gold held in foreign accounts, along with all that cash. Liberation has its benefits. The confrontation with Iran would be comical if not so dangerous. The claims have been silly in my view for years, in the perception of Iran as a serious threat to the West. They have been subjected to cut communication lines on the Persian Gulf seabed. They have been subjected to Stuxnet viruses to obstruct their nuclear refinement process, via the Siemens rear door. They have been subjected to an influx of heroin from the north, where the USMilitary manages the Afghan situation and locale.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
U.S. Dollar's Lucky Streak / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
Recent U.S. economic data, such as the modest drop in the unemployment rate and the massive expansion of consumer credit, have suggested that the American economy is finally recovering. Opposite conclusions are being thrown at Europe, where many are convinced that recession is returning. Not surprisingly then, the dollar is currently hitting a multi-year high against the euro. The strength of the dollar itself is often held up as one of the major proof points that the U.S. economy is "improving." But the data points that I believe really matter continue to suggest an economy on life support. I believe that the dollar is rising for reasons that have nothing to do with America's economic health.
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Monday, January 09, 2012
U.S. Dollar Foreign Currency Pairs Analysis / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Tony_Caldaro
As we noted in the most recent weekend update, there have been some developments in the long term Secular/Supercycle patterns of the currencies. As you are aware, the USD Secular trend, or Supercycle if you will, has been bearish against most foreign currencies since 1985. We have reason to believe this ended at the 2011 price low of 72.70 DXY. The USD should now be in a Secular bull market. Initial estimates suggest the DXY should reach 140 by 2018.
Sunday, January 08, 2012
Huh? When the Fed Balance Sheet Expands, it’s actually U.S. Dollar Bullish!? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Aftab_Singh
If you ever happen to acquire an inclination for being the subject of disrepute and ridicule I highly recommend endorsing the conceit alluded to in the title. Apparently this issue is ‘so obvious’ that even gold bugs and government officials can reach common ground via the contention that I’m deluded. My folly — if you will — is to maintain that dollar debasement can be bullish for the dollar vis-à-vis other currencies at present. Since this long-standing conviction of ours is once again being corroborated by price action in the currency markets I thought I’d attempt to convince you that I’m not completely crazy. Here I outline why dollar debasement is bullish for the dollar against other fiat currencies in this environment.
Thursday, January 05, 2012
U.S. Dollar and Currencies: Review and Outlook / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Axel_Merk
In 2012, policy makers around the world may be driven by the realization that the theme of 2011 was not a Euro-specific crisis, but simply another stage in a global financial crisis. Central bankers may ramp up their printing presses in an effort to limit “contagion” concerns. As such, the currency markets may be the purest way to take a view on the “mania” of policy makers. Market movements may continue to be largely driven by political rhetoric, rather than company earnings announcements or economic data. We don’t believe this trend will abate over the foreseeable future, especially given the likely leadership changes throughout several G-7 nations.
Tuesday, January 03, 2012
U.S. Dollar Forecast 2012, How to Play A Short-Term Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Larry D. Spears writes:
The U.S. dollar will start 2012 on an upswing - but don't let it fool you.
What we're seeing is only a short-term rally inspired by Europe's travails. In the long-term, the U.S. Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy and the United States' own debt burden will drive the greenback back down.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2011
U.S. Dollar being Replaced by China, Japan a Gold Positive! / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
The Globalization Process for the Yuan
Japan and China will promote direct trading of yen and yuan without using dollars and will encourage the development of a market for companies involved in the exchanges, the Japanese government said over the holiday weekend.
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Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Eye on Euro and Gold / Currencies / Euro
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Well, wouldn't we all like to know what new ECB head Draghi is thinking about Mr. Market's response to his "cheap money give-away" right about now.
EUR/USD has plunged from 1.3200 to 1.3030/40, which has dragged down all the sympathetic and synchronized global equity and commodity markets too -- all in the last two hours or so!
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Monday, December 19, 2011
Time for a Two-Month Trade Against the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: DailyWealth
I believe gold hit a bottom last week, and I believe it will enter a multi-month rally starting now.
I also believe that the U.S. dollar hit a near-term peak this week, and I believe it will enter a multi-month downtrend, starting now.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Where the Euro Should be Trading / Currencies / Euro
By: Bloomberg
John Taylor, founder of the world's largest currency hedge fund FX Concepts LLC, spoke to Bloomberg TV's Lisa Murphy. Taylor talked about what currencies his fund is currently investing in and gave his thoughts on the euro and USD.
On where he thinks the euro should be trading:
"It seems to me that [the euro] should be a lot lower than it is."
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Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Indian Rupee to Stop here for a while and Why Rupee Fell? / Currencies / India
By: Dhaval_Shah
Dear investor
Indian Rupee hit the target of 54, I had given in last letter titled “ Why Indian Rupee falling precipitously??” (Link).
I had also mentioned reasons for rupee’s sharp fall like Fiscal Deficit, Trade Deficit and bearish sentiments among Foreign Investors caused by hyperinflation and mismanagement of governance.
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Friday, December 09, 2011
Aussie Dollar Drops on China Economic Weakness / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Regent_Markets
While European politicians bicker, another global worry flashed in the small hours of this morning. China has been the engine of global growth in recent years but today's economic data came in below expectations in many areas. As a major supplier of China, Australia has been hit hard by this so far with the AUD/USD down 0.70% and the NZD/USD down by a similar margin.
Wednesday, December 07, 2011
The European Debt Crisis and Unstable Currency Markets / Currencies / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Bob_Chapman
Even the middle of the road journalists are beginning to question Europe’s elected and appointed leadership. This past Monday the plan for the euro zone was laid out for a final capitulation to world government. The financial crisis has been handled from behind the scenes by the Fed, so that Germany’s Chancellor Merkel and France’s President can concentrate on more important matters, namely the final federalization of the euro zone to be followed by the entrapment of the remainder of the European Union.
Wednesday, December 07, 2011
The Three Must-Own Currencies of 2012 / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
If 2011 taught us one thing, it's that currency investing can be a dangerous business.
For instance, the euro - the simplest of hedges against a declining dollar and the U.S. Federal Reserve's expansive monetary policy - has run into difficulties, losing billions for even the most sophisticated Wall Street banks.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2011
Euro most expensive in Greece / Currencies / Euro
By: Pravda
The euro is overvalued in several countries of Southern Europe. The joint European currency is undervalued in other countries of the European continent, particularly in the north and in the center of the EU. The euro is most expensive in Greece and least expensive in Belgium, experts said.
Europe's southern states, which have debt problems, are supposed to be interested in a weaker euro. However, it is impossible to do it in one separate state since the currency is common for many other countries.
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Monday, December 05, 2011
US Dollar Technical Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Tony_Pallotta
In the coming weeks you will hear me discuss the current trade as a "credit event that equity will be forced to acknowledge." It is important to understand what will drive equity prices. The main stream media will make up "excuses" for price action but I believe as always they will be misguided.
Saturday, December 03, 2011
Euro Dollars - The Great Dollar Overhang and Missing M3 Component - Gold and Silver / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jesse
These figures are from the Preliminary BIS Reports of November 2011 which reflect reporting bank positions as of the Jun 2011 quarter. Obviously therefore they do not yet reflect the recent Fed expansion of the swap lines for dollars. The first chart represents the total dollars held by banks as 'foreign currency.'