Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, June 20, 2022
AI Tech Stocks Current State, Is AMAZON a Dying Tech Giant? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The stocks bear market continues with most AI tech stocks putting in new bear market lows during the past week, with key exceptions being Facebook and AVGO. Whilst Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia were the weakest stocks of the week, though all stocks rallied strongly Friday led by AMD which ended the week up 10% followed by Micron at +6% which are definitely two stocks to aim to accumulate during any further market weakness.
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Monday, May 16, 2022
NASDAQ 100 Stock Market LOWER LOWS & LOWER HIGH / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Following and trading on price can be compared to the reading of a good book. As we read each page, we acquire additional information that may give us a better understanding of the unfolding story.
The same is true of the market, as each day is like the reading of another page. The pages of a book make up chapters. These chapters in trading represent bull markets, bear markets, distribution and accumulation, and time frames of high and low volatility.
Unfortunately, in trading, we cannot skip to the end of the book to learn how everything turns out. However, as traders, we have learned that studying and remembering the past can pay great dividends.
Trading price in its rawest form is simply plotting and studying price without the use of moving averages, stochastics, RSI, or other technical indicators. This simplified but often overlooked methodology can offer everything a trader needs to be successful.
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Wednesday, April 27, 2022
The Spooky Mulder Stock Market - Best Shares Cash ISA for for Accumulating Cheap AI Tech Stocks / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock market price action is proving X files style spooky, not in terms of big price movement but rather that it is spookily following my trend expectation as of late March, unfortunately this is NOT AI generated for if it were I could sit back and retire, this is Deem generated of the trend picture in my mind late March of how things could play out during April and into May. A chart is much better than just text which is open to misinterpretation.
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Wednesday, December 15, 2021
Insights into a "Remarkable" NASDAQ Stock Market Development / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: EWI
Here's what usually happens in the stock market when "the troops abandon the generals"
You've probably heard the phrase: "Appearances can be deceiving."
In other words, it's usually wise to "take a closer look" because the truth may not be obvious.
This applies to various circumstances of life -- even the stock market.
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
Stock Market AI mega-trend Stocks Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just pause for a moment and take in the chart in this video - the message one should be receiving loud and clear is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, whilst my best guess a year ago was that it would top in early 2027, as long as run away valuations moderate during 2022 then I don't see why this should still not remain as the big picture, thus the bull market could extend to 18 years from it's March 2009 low!
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Monday, October 04, 2021
NASDAQ Stock Market Head-n-Shoulders Warns Of Market Weakness – Critical Topping Pattern / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The unique technical setup in the NASDAQ over the past 30+ days is warning that the markets have lost momentum and may attempt to break below the $14,700, the Neck Line of the Head-n-Shoulders pattern. This unique price setup crept up over the past 20+ days as the US markets started to move away from upward price momentum as the Chinese and US market dynamics started to shift away from the continued reflation trade expectations. What does this Head-n-Shoulders pattern mean for traders and investors right now?
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Saturday, September 25, 2021
Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US stock market has been content to rally to new highs with many stocks going to the Moon including most of our AI tech giants, a rally that I have been distributing into to the extent that I have now sold 80% of my holdings in the Top 6 AI stocks in my portfolio some of which I have been accumulating for over a decade (Microsoft). The primary objective of this analysis is the determine where we stand in terms of THE TOP, after all, all bull markets eventually do top either ending with a CRASH (1987) or a bear market (2000 and 2007). So what to hold and what to sell is the question I am asking myself, with a view to riding out a potential bear market / crash, where this analysis deploys a new automated metric of individual stock SELLING LEVELs so that one better knows where one stands in terms of ones portfolio, all in just one table. After all the risk we all fear is that of a 2000 style collapse that sends stocks lower for the next 20 years! Remember that bear market bottomed with a 85% collapse for tech stocks! Yes, one could say the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Apple had become dirt cheap, but that would have been a very painful and prolonged discounting event. So a case of balancing the risks of letting some stocks ride whilst cashing in those that will pay a heavy price for their over exuberance all whilst being aware of the AI mega-trend trundling along in the background.
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Wednesday, August 11, 2021
Nasdaq Rallied To New All-Time Highs – Are We Starting Another Bullish Rally Phase? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After the Fed’s comments in support of the US economy and the transitory nature of the recent inflation, the NASDAQ rallied to new all-time highs and closed at $15,167.75 on August 5, 2021. If the markets fall back into the “melt-higher” mode as we move away from Q2:2021 earnings, we may be setting up for a moderately big rally phase targeting $15,400 or higher in the NQ.
Global Traders Continue To Bank On A Rally In US Equities
Global traders have poured billions into the US markets over the past 4+ years as the US Federal Reserve has continued to act as the global banker of last resort. Because of this, global traders continue to invest in US equities as the strength of the US Dollar and the incredible post-Covid rally in the markets has blown past everyone’s expectations.
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Wednesday, May 12, 2021
TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is now entering my forecast window for a significant correction which should present an opportunity to accumulate into most the AI mega-trend stocks many of which have galloped ahead to new all time highs this year, trending in the opposite direction to the much higher risk stocks such as those that heavily populate the media blitzkrieging Cathy Wood's ARK funds i.e. their biggest holding Tesla is down 4.5% year to date whilst AI numero Uno Google is up 32%! Which this analysis seeks to resolve in high probability buying levels in advance of an expected correction during May.
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Tuesday, May 11, 2021
Cathy Wood Bubble Bursts as ARK Funds CRASH! Enter into a Severe Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst the Dow has been trading at NEW all time highs, supreme media high risk stocks pumper's ARK funds have entered into a severe bear market as ARK bubble finally bursts. Those invested in ARK funds are in for a more pain over the coming weeks and months as reality catches up with the fantasy valuations that the Cathy brigade had lifted the likes of Tesla to.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2021
AI Tech Stocks Lead the Bull Market Charge / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
let's see if the correction materialises so I can buy more stocks after the recent March dip in tech stocks that allowed me to pick up the likes of TSMC for $110, amongst several others on my target list including AMD and Nvidia, though Facebook failed to succumb to mainstream media hysteria instead took off like a rocket to currently stand at well above $300 which whether one likes it or not is precisely what one expects good stocks to do! Even the sleeping giant IBM broke out of it's year long trading range. Whilst Intel despite releasing a pile of garbage 11th Gen rocket lake processors, performing worse than their 10th Gen CPUs! That one would have thought would have resulted in weak hands selling out of their holdings and thus giving us a dip to below $50 to buy some more for the long-run, instead Intel has had a moon shot of its own trading towards 20 year highs! Hardly price action that one would expect from what I consider to be sleeping giants! Which is indicative of what's really going on under the hood that most still fail to grasp which is the exponential nature of the AI mega-trend and of course the rampant money printing inflation mega-trend. That and perhaps there aren't many weak hands left holding IBM and Intel stock.
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Sunday, November 01, 2020
Here’s Why The Stock Market Doesn’t Care About Next Week’s Election / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Stephen_McBride
We’re just days away from one of the most anticipated elections in history. And I’m afraid millions of investors are going to waste time and money trying to “guess” who’ll win and how it will impact markets.
The truth is, smart investors won’t waste a second worrying about which party will win. In today’s essay, I’ll show you why, and share some of my top stocks to own right now.
I could fill the next five pages with data points about how stocks performed under different presidents. I’ve even read theories saying it’s best to buy stocks on October 1 of the second year of a presidential term and sell on December 31 of the fourth year.
I’ve done all the boring work for you. I’ve studied the data back as far as 1897, and one thing is crystal clear: There isn’t some golden, predictable pattern when it comes to presidents and the stock market.
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Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Look at This Big Reminder of Dot.com Stock Market Mania / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: EWI
Here’s when a surge in IPOs tends to occur
Let's pretend for a second we're trying to explain to an alien how the weather works on planet Earth.
When the sky turns dark and cloudy, we might tell him, this indicates rain -- perhaps even thunderstorms. However, cloudy skies do not necessarily signal when a downpour will start or how long it will last if it does start. After all, the sun could break through before an umbrella is needed. All that said, when the sky turns ominous, it's a good idea to have your umbrella handy -- just in case.
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Wednesday, July 29, 2020
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team continues to attempt to navigate the difficult market dynamics ahead as traders’ concerns related to continued global economic functions persist. We believe the US stock market has rallied well beyond sustainable levels and the recent move in the US Dollar and Precious Metals has issued a clear warning that global traders are not buying into the current valuation levels of the major indexes. The NASDAQ (NQ) has rallied to new all-time highs at a time when a majority of the US Stock Market is contracting and concerns about future earnings/revenues continue to shock investors. It is almost as if a large group of traders piled into the “Fed Recovery” message and ignored the fact that the COVID-19 virus event is vastly different than any other price correction we’ve experienced over the past 40+ years.
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Thursday, June 18, 2020
NASDAQ: Some Historical Insights into Tech Stocks Mania / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: EWI
No doubt, you've heard: The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite just passed the 10-thousand mark for the first-time ever, even as the DJIA remains below its February high.
This infatuation with technology is nothing new.
Indeed, EWI's publications have long noted that the most important peaks of the past 200 years have been associated with periods of intense technological advance.
As far back as the 1835 peak, market participants were enamored with electricity, photography, blast furnaces for the mass production of iron and indoor plumbing. In 1929, investors placed their hopes on commercial air flight and radio. In 1966, futurists were envisioning colonies on the Moon. And, in the year 2000, the shares of internet companies were skyrocketing.
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Thursday, May 14, 2020
NASDAQ Sets Up A Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has identified a potential trade setup in QID that correlates to our ongoing analysis of the US stock market and our Advanced Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs. We believe a major price inflection point is setting up in the US stock market within the next 48 hours that may prompt a price trend reversal in the NASDAQ and other major US stock market indexes. This pattern correlates to a much longer-term Head-n-Shoulders pattern that is also setting up in the SPY.
Our belief is that technical traders should wait for confirmation of this setup before entering any new trades, yet we believe we will have confirmation of this setup within 3 to 5 trading days – given the urgency of the setup with our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs. We believe a right-shoulder could be forming as the US stock markets push a bit higher in early trading this week. We believe the Fibonacci Price Acr’s are suggesting a major inflection point is preparing to disrupt price trends.
Just to be clear, this is a prediction, and as technical traders, we wait for confirmation before trading. This is the #1 issue with most traders. They jump the gun and buy into a trade idea before the price chart has confirmed and they lose a lot of money. Follow price, don’ try to lead it.
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Saturday, February 15, 2020
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One thing that continues to amaze our research team is the total scale and scope of the Capital Shift which is taking place across the globe. For almost 5+ years, foreign investors have been piling into the US stock market chasing the stronger US dollar and continued advancement of US share prices. It is almost like there is no other place on the planet that will allow investors to pool capital into such a variety of strong assets while protecting against foreign capital risks. Yet the one big question remains – when will a price reversion event hit the US stock market?
So many researchers, even our team of researchers, believe we have found the keys to unlocking when the price reversion event will take place. Time-honored technical analysis techniques have set up very clear triggers that were negated by higher prices and continued upside trending. What is certain at this point is that the Capital Shift is going to continue until it stops – at some point in the future.
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Friday, May 17, 2019
Nasdaq De-FAANGed? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Submissions
By Zac Mannes : We generally chart the regular NASDAQ -- the NDX, QQQ, and the futures -- but when you consider that a mere five momentum names, affectionately given the acronym "FAANG," comprise nearly 40% of the weighting of the entire index, a glance at the Equal Weight version is not a bad idea. I prefer the First Trust (QQEW) to the Direxion (QQQE) as it seems to chart slightly cleaner and the "EW" is easier to remember.
Watching for nuanced differentiation in the patterns between the QQEW and NDX, it is possible to see the potential for the former to lead a bit. For example, back in August/September of 2018, QQEW marked a divergent high. More recently, the QQEW began to count more like the blue 5th wave extension of (5) of Primary Wave 3 before the NDX shifted from it's "(B)" wave.
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
US Tech Stock Sector Setting Up for A Momentum Breakout Move / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has warned that the precious metals market would enter a 30~45 day rotational price trend on January 28, 2019. On January 16, 2019, we suggested that the upside price move in the US stock market had reached initial upside target zones and suggested that price pullback would be healthy near these levels. Today, we are warning that the markets are poised for a momentum breakout move that is setting up after the minor pullback in most US stock sectors the past week.
There are a number of news factors which support both or our analysis of the precious metals market and result in a failure of our analysis of the US stock market. First, the opportunity for the US government to agree to and pass a funding bill that removes uncertainty for many months. If the US government is able to pass a longer-term funding bill that eliminates pricing pressures and fears in the markets, the US stock market could breakout to the upside on a new momentum move very quickly. Second, if the US/China trade issues are resolved, in any substantial form, and trade begins to normalize over the next 6+ months, this could add even more fuel to the upside of the market and create a boost of momentum for almost all sectors.
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Sunday, February 10, 2019
Our Tech Stock Market Prediction – PART II / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you missed PART 1 (SP500 Price Forecast) be sure to read it here.
Here is PART II let’s take a look at the NQ Weekly chart with the ADL predictive price modeling.
We are going to include predictions made by our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system that originated from December 2017 going all the way forward through to the end of May 2019.
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