Category: Stock Market 2022
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, April 17, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Into Mid May 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022.
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Saturday, April 16, 2022
Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid May 2022, AI Stocks Portfolio Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if you could know the future, had a chart of the stock market that showed a high probability trend forecast into the middle of May 2022. We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast right into the middle of May 2022 -
Whilst my last market brief signaled to expect a strong April to be punctuated by an imminent correction into early April before the final forecast push higher into a May high that the following chart of the S&P better visualises of what I have in mind in terms of how the trend could play out.
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Thursday, April 14, 2022
Stocks Bear Market About to Resume? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Tthe stock market rally that had the the bulls salivating is probably coming to and end, and thus the direction of travel over the coming days should be lower as the Dow continues to target $31k. In terms of the bear market we will probably eventually see the Dow gravitate to below $30k, how low and in what time frame requires in-depth analysis which I will focus on next after housing. In the meantime, This is the type of trend I warned to expect, VERY VOLATILE as investors gyrate between FEAR and GREED. A sell off now could set the scene for a strong April i.e. off a higher end March / early April low rather than a break to new bear market lows.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2022
Stocks – Uncertainty Ahead of Quarterly Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks fluctuated following their recent decline on Tuesday and the S&P 500 index closed slightly below the 4,400 level. Is this still just a downward correction?The S&P 500 index lost 0.34% on Tuesday following its Monday’s decline of 1.7%. There is still a lot of uncertainty concerning the Ukraine conflict and Fed’s monetary policy tightening plans. On Monday it led to a more pronounced profit-taking action. However, the coming quarterly earnings releases season may be a positive factor in the near term. This morning the broad stock market is expected virtually flat following the Producer Price Index release.
The nearest important resistance level is now at around 4,475-4,500, marked by the recent support level and Monday’s daily gap down. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,350-4,400. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its March rally, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
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Wednesday, April 13, 2022
Utilities Rising & Transporters Sinking – Sector Rotation Is Providing Clues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Historically, investors gravitate toward more defensive and commodity-focused sectors, such as precious metals, energy, commodities, and utilities, in late-cycle bull markets.
Recently, the stock market is beginning to show us signs that the bull market may be coming to an end. Commodities such as energy, grains, and precious metals have all experienced nice rallies. Price action also confirms money flow coming out of transports and into utilities.
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Sunday, April 10, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We are in for a volatile trend with a downwards bias for much of 2022, as I wrote to expect on the 5th of Dec 2021 accompanied by revised trend forecast graph.
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Tuesday, April 05, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: What If They Held A Recession And No One Showed Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
I have now been writing for well over a decade on Seeking Alpha. And, during that time, I have tried to enlighten readers as to how I see the market machinations take shape, especially as compared to the common views held by most market participants. So, there's large body of work I have compiled and written on this topic.
This week, I'm taking the opportunity to compile it all into a three-article series. So, please do bear with me as I'm going to be presenting you with a lot of information, most of which has been culled from my many articles and my recent keynote address at the Las Vegas MoneyShow convention. After I complete that presentation, I will provide you with my thoughts on an “impending recession.”
I want to begin by explaining that much of what you have been taught regarding the market is likely false. I know that's quite a bold statement to make, but I can back it up with examples, market research, and market history.
You see, just as many of you have done, I began my investing career on the fundamentals side of the market. For those who may not know my background, allow me to explain the qualifications with which I initially approached the markets. I graduated college with a dual major in both economics and accounting. I went on to pass all four parts of the CPA exam in one sitting, something that only 2% of those taking the exam are able to achieve. I then went on to complete law school in two and a half years, and graduated ***** laude and in the top 5% of my class. I then went on to NYU for a Master of Law in taxation. I became a partner and national director at a major national firm at a very young age, where I worked to organize very large transactions. So, when I tell you that I understand the fundamentals of economics, business, and balance sheets, you can believe me.
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Sunday, April 03, 2022
Germany's DAX: What You Can Learn from the 2007 Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
Why investors should be aware of a divergence between stock prices and consumer confidence
Among the scores of stock market indicators, there's at least one that may be off many investors' radar screens.
And, that is the trend in consumer confidence. Specifically, a peak in consumer confidence tends to precede a peak in the stock market.
With that in mind, back on Nov. 25, the Telegraph said:
Consumer confidence has dropped sharply in Germany. ...
A few days later, the December Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which offers coverage of 50-plus worldwide financial markets, provided a retrospective of Germany's DAX and consumer confidence with this chart and commentary:
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Tuesday, March 29, 2022
Stocks: Should We Expect More Upside? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks extended their short-term uptrend on Friday, but this week we may see some more uncertainty and a possible profit-taking action.The S&P 500 index gained 0.53% on Friday following its Thursday’s advance of 1.4%. The broad stock market’s gauge extended its short-term uptrend after breaking above the 4,500 level. It gained over 380 points from the Mar. 14 local low of around 4,162. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we may see another correction and a profit-taking action at some point.
There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but investors were recently jumping back into stocks despite that geopolitical uncertainty. This morning the index is expected to open virtually flat after an overnight advance followed by its retracement.
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Sunday, March 20, 2022
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We are in for a volatile trend with a downwards bias for much of 2022, as I wrote to expect on the 5th of Dec 2021 accompanied by revised trend forecast graph.
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Friday, March 18, 2022
China Stock Market Selling Pressure Could Be Over, Now What? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX HAS DROPPED MORE
THAN 40% FROM ITS PEAK IN JUST 2 ½ MONTHS!
China Stocks: This morning bottom pickers around the globe are snatching up what they believe to be “bargain basement priced stocks” as the Hang Seng Index gained 9.1% during today’s March 16, 2022 trading session. It was the best day for the HSI since the 2008 financial crisis as the Chinese government pledged to support markets.
Tensions are running high as Chinese nickel giant Tsingshan Holding Group, the world’s biggest producer of nickel used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries was sitting on $8 billion in trading losses.
According to the Wall Street Journal on March 9, 2022 “The London Metal Exchange suspended the nickel market early last Tuesday, the first time it had paused trading in a metal contract since the collapse of an international tin cartel in 1985. The decision followed a near doubling in prices over a few hours.”
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Tuesday, March 15, 2022
Are Rising Oil Prices Sending Stocks into a Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
See a time when the economy revived as oil prices doubled
A long-held assumption is that "oil shocks" or dramatically rising oil prices are bearish for stocks.
Look at these headlines:
- Dow slides nearly 800 points as oil hits $120 a barrel (Washington Post, March 7)
- Why soaring oil prices could soon make the stock market sputter (Marketwatch, October 2021)
As you might imagine, if observers assume that dramatically rising oil prices make the stock market decline, they also believe the reverse, namely, a drop in oil prices makes the stock market climb.
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Saturday, March 12, 2022
Stock Market S&P 500 – Should We Buy the Dip? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stock prices remain very volatile, as the Ukraine conflict keeps dominating headlines. Will the market reverse its downtrend?
The S&P 500 index gained 2.57% on Wednesday, Mar. 9, as it retraced some of the recent decline. The broad stock market’s gauge got back to the 4,300 level after bouncing from its Tuesday’s low of 4,157.87. On Feb. 24 the index fell to the local low of 4,114.65 and it was 704 points or 14.6% below the January 4 record high of 4,818.62. There’s still a lot of uncertainty concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This morning the S&P 500 index is expected to open 1.3% lower and we may see further consolidation.
Saturday, March 12, 2022
Don’t Panic—here’s how Stock Markets historically perform during Wars / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Stephen_McBride
Last week, I was part of a private discussion with Marko Papic…If you don’t know the name, few people on earth are as qualified to talk about how the war in Ukraine will affect stocks as Marko.
He’s been studying geopolitics and markets for more than a decade. He wrote the book Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
During the discussion, he said, “You should just buy every time there is a geopolitical conflict. There’s only 1 out of around 80 events where this isn’t the case.”
That assertion shocked me…
With the war in Ukraine raging on, I wanted to take it a step further, so you know exactly what to expect during these volatile times.
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Thursday, March 10, 2022
Stock Market ‘BUY THE DIP’ or ‘SELL THE RALLY’? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
To minimize trading risk and grow capital during a global crisis is somewhat hinged on the answers to speculative questions. How long will the Russia – Ukraine war last? How high is the price of oil and gas going to go? How quickly will central banks raise interest rates to counter high inflation? What assets should I put my money into? Knowing what the Best Asset Now (BAN) is, is critical for risk management and consistent growth no matter the market condition!
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Wednesday, March 09, 2022
Is Russia Ukraine War Negative for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
Here's what really drives the trends of global stock markets
Let's first state the obvious: war is tragic as it brings death and destruction.
But does war make the stock market go down?
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Monday, March 07, 2022
M = F - Everything is Waving! Stock Market Forward Guidance / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The Ukrainian people have sleep walked into a nightmare that they did not see coming, neither did much of that which purports to be the mainstream press. However my consistent view since late January (AI Stocks Multi Buying Levels to Capitalise on the Stock Market Panic of 2022) has been that -
a. Russia WILL invade Ukraine.
b. That Putin wants the WHOLE of Ukraine.
c. That Putin is prepared to destroy the WHOLE of Ukraine, flatten every city to achieve victory.
And then we had the risk of Putin using tactical nuclear weapons if the war did not go his way.
And after the war comes the Moldova War and Putin could even target NATO baltic states!
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Monday, March 07, 2022
Stock Market Peculiar Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 recovered most of the intraday downside, and in spite of value driving the upswing, there is something odd about it. Tech barely moved higher during the day, and the heavyweights continue being beaten similarly to biotech compared to the rest of healthcare. The key oddity though was in the risk-off posture in bonds, and the Treasuries upswing that Nasdaq failed to get inspired with.
If TLT has a message to drive home after the latest Powell pronouncements, it‘s that the odds of a 50bp rate hike in Mar (virtual certainty less than two weeks ago, went down considerably) – it‘s almost a coin toss now, and as the FOMC time approaches, the Fed would probably grow more cautious (read dovish and not hawkish) in its assessments, no matter the commodities appreciation or supply chains status. Yes, neither of these, nor inflation is going away before the year‘s end – they are here to stay for a long time to come.
Looking at the events of late, I have to dial back the stock market outlook when it comes to the degree of appreciation till 2022 is over – I wouldn‘t be surprised to see the S&P 500 to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open. Yes, not even the better 2H 2022 prospects would erase the preceding setback.
Sunday, March 06, 2022
"Shooting Stars" of the Stock Market: "Don’t Be Fooled by This" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: EWI
"A funny thing happened on the way to the revolution"
A meme stock has been defined as “the shares of a company that have gained a cult-like following online and through social media platforms.”
This “following” is largely comprised of novice investors who hope to make a quick profit. You may remember two well-publicized examples of meme stocks back in 2021: Gamestop and AMC Entertainment. There have been others.
Well, Robinhood Markets has been described as “the brokerage behind the meme stock revolution.”
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Sunday, March 06, 2022
S&P 500 At Tipping Point To Start A Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Is a bear market on the way? My research suggests the downward sloping trend line (LIGHT ORANGE in the Daily/Weekly SPY chart below) may continue to act as solid resistance – possibly prompting a further breakdown in the markets for US major indexes.
As we’ve seen recently, news and other unexpected events prompt very large price volatility events in the US major indexes. For example, the VIX recently rose above 30 again, which shows volatility levels are currently 3x higher than normal levels.
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