Category: Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, April 11, 2020
A ‘Good’ Thursday as Gold Stocks Show the Way / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
[edit] It goes without saying that gold miners and the royalty companies that live off them will be shown to have been impaired like many other companies by the coming Q2 numbers due to shutdowns. An emailer questioned my view on this and it has been one of my personal caution points. Markets should be looking ahead, but during this euphoric sentiment release across broad markets maybe they’re overlooking some things. The other caution point is that a big bullish expression on the heels of the Fed announcement is also a setup for short-term disappointment. So with respect to the daily chart below, maybe Friday’s gap will fill after all. But as noted in the article below “the gold stocks lead and their fundamentals and value proposition will have improved by leaps and bounds as we exit the COVID-19 global lock down”.
It’s a good Friday because I get to start my weekend work earlier. Many people temporarily have no weekends because they are huddled at home as one day bleeds into the next amid the global pandemic. Monday is Thursday is Saturday. Good Friday is Halloween is Festivus.
But when times are normal I have no weekends, working 7 days and most intensely on the weekends (with more freedom than the average worker on weekdays). When times are abnormal like now, I work hard on weekends but the more intense days are during the week. As one subscriber put it:
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Monday, April 06, 2020
Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold miners’ stocks have endured epic volatility in this past month, literally crashing before blasting back higher in a violent V-bounce. That preceding wicked capitulation flush savagely forced the weak hands out, paving the way for gold stocks’ next major upleg. The resulting fierce rebound signals it is already underway, with plenty of speculators and investors now chasing the huge gains this sector is famous for.
Perspective is essential and exceedingly-valuable for traders. If you don’t know where we’ve been and how we got here, you can’t figure out where we’re likely going. Context is necessary to frame this past month’s extraordinary gold-stock action, and to successfully game where this sector should be heading. Extreme volatility creates extreme opportunities, neither of which come around very often. Carpe diem!
The leading and most-popular gold-stock benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. It was the first gold-stock ETF launched way back in May 2006, giving it a first-mover advantage that has grown into an insurmountable lead. GDX’s $10.2b in net assets this week were running 34.4x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF! GDX’s recent raging action reveals what just transpired.
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Sunday, March 22, 2020
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Peak Oil? That was an obvious and widespread promotion while it was in play and did not fool anyone who bothered to step aside from the herd that ran with it.
Peak Terror in broad stock markets? Well, that I don’t discount so readily because this is a system that was a debt-bloated accident waiting for the trigger that turned out to be COVID-19. Terrified casino patrons will pray that the Fed’s bullets are not duds because that is the only way out. That and the still-intact mass confidence in the Keynesian debt scheme that the Fed operates within.
SPX has tanked to the 38% Fib (not annotated on the chart) of the entire policy-manufactured bull market from 2009. While I think there is a big time rally out there ahead somewhere, there is fundamental reason to question the very makings of the bull market and how effective more of those same makings will be. Well before COVID-19 we had SPX due for a manic sentiment blow off and downside reversal. Now the opposite sentiment, Peak Terror, has been slammed into place.
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Monday, March 16, 2020
Gold Miners: Dismissing the inflation Bugs / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Below is a monthly chart of HUI telling some stories of the past.
- The 2003 to 2008 bull rally ended with Huey’s “crown of thorns” as I used to call it back then. An H&S that formed at the end of a great inflationary phase in the markets.
- The great crash of 2008 (Armageddon ’08) was completely deserved because as I’ve belabored for so many years now, you don’t buy gold stocks in any heavy and/or long-term way during cyclical inflationary touts as gold barely keeps up with mining cost commodities and other assets/markets. The crash of Q4 ’08 cleaned out the inflation bugs and it did so with great cruelty and relentlessness. Only when every last bug who’d come aboard for the wrong reasons was exterminated did the bloodshed finally end.
- So who turned and burned first out of the ’08 (deflationary) bottom? Gold and then the miners, that’s who. They led the whole raft of commodities and stocks, which finally bottomed in March of 2009. Then another massive inflation trade ensued, before blowing out in Q1 of 2011. Then? What I called “Mr. Fat Head” formed as the first drop found support at 375, the sector rammed upward on a QE tout, then failed, taking out 460 on the downside and we proclaimed that was that. Welcome to the bear market.
- Then years of a bear crash and grind took HUI down to Mr. Fat Head’s measured target, which was around 100.
Sunday, March 01, 2020
Gold Stocks Spring Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
Before their recent surge on gold regaining $1600, the gold stocks spent much of the past half-year or so largely drifting sideways to lower. That high consolidation really weighed on sentiment, with greed giving way to apathy. This sector normally tends to suffer a seasonal slump into mid-March, paving the way for gold stocks’ spring rally. That’s their second-strongest seasonal surge of the year running into early June.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.
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Saturday, February 15, 2020
Gold Stocks Still Stalled / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks are still stalled, mostly grinding sideways despite higher prevailing gold prices. This lack of progress is really frustrating traders, slowly shifting herd psychology towards apathy. That’s the mission of high consolidations, gradually rebalancing sentiment by bleeding off greed. This healthy process has already come a long way, but still needs to fully play out before gold stocks’ next upleg can run.
The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF remains this sector’s most-popular benchmark. Launched way back in May 2006, its first-mover advantage has grown into an insurmountable lead over its peers. Its $12.7b in net assets this week are running 38.2x larger than its next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor! GDX’s lackluster price action in this past half-year or so has disheartened traders.
Last summer the gold stocks blasted higher with gold after its first bull-market breakout in several years. The gold stocks caught a bid before that landmark event, starting to rally at the end of May as gold surged on US-tariff fears. By early September GDX had soared 49.0% higher in just 3.2 months! Over 2/3rds of those big gains came after gold’s bull-market breakout. GDX crested with gold on September 4th at $30.95.
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Wednesday, February 05, 2020
Copper-gold Deposits to Help Gold Miners Overcome Depletion Dilemma / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Richard_Mills
Every fiscal quarter the World Gold Council puts out a wonderful little report on the gold market, that is made into an article by just about every mining news outlet. For reasons unknowable to mere mortals like us, the report focuses on gold demand. The reader has to go deep into the report to find the other half of the story, gold supply, and in particular, mined gold supply.
Doing so in the WGC’s latest instalment, the full-year 2019 gold market report, reveals some startling conclusions about “peak gold”.
The concept of peak gold should be familiar to most readers, and gold investors. Like peak oil, it refers to the point when gold production is no longer growing, as it has been, by 1.8% a year, for over 100 years. It reaches a peak, then declines.
While gold production has been increasing every year, it’s been growing in smaller and smaller amounts. That is, while gold output in 2018 was higher than 2017, it was only 1% higher - 3,347 vs 3,318 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Production in 2017 was 1.3% more than 2016.
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Monday, January 27, 2020
This Will Signal A Massive Gold Stocks Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Hubert_Moolman
Gold stocks are often cited as recession proof stocks. Although this has not always been true, they do tend to rise when the economy is in a recessions and/or when the general stock market is in decline or showing relatively little gains.
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Saturday, January 25, 2020
Germany Starts War on Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Richard_Mills
Germans, like Indians and Chinese, love their gold - although their reasons for buying and keeping bullion are somewhat different.
In China and India, gold jewelry is a status symbol - a sign of wealth and success. In Germany, owning gold bars and coins, maybe a 24-karat necklace or two, is a means of preserving wealth, especially in times of war or economic crisis, something never far from Germans’ minds, considering their history.
Indeed the “war guilt” Germans experience over the atrocities of Nazi Germany is accompanied by fears that their government could again lose control of fiat money, as the Weimar Republic did in the 1920s, leading to devastating hyper-inflation.
In India “a marriage is not a marriage without gold.” Indians find it auspicious to be-gift gold jewelry during the Diwali festival, which begins in October, and wedding season. Gold-shopping for the bride is thought to bring good fortune and invoke the blessings of a Hindu goddess. At nearly 20 million weddings a year, Indians’ annual demand for the precious metal exceeds 514 tonnes. Easy to see why the country’s private gold holdings are the largest in the world, a mind-boggling 24,000 tonnes. (almost as much as the world’s top 10 central bank holdings combined)
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Saturday, January 25, 2020
Gold Mining Stocks Valuations / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks have spent the past half-year mired in a high consolidation. They haven’t been able to break out, but aren’t breaking down either. This technical purgatory is working to slowly bleed off overboughtness and rebalance sentiment. This necessary process to eradicate greed from the last upleg peak is never exciting. But today’s low gold-miner valuations reveal great upside potential in their next upleg.
The world’s leading and dominant gold-stock trading vehicle and benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund. It commanded $13.2b in net assets in the middle of this week, 2.7x larger than its next-biggest competitor GDXJ. The major gold miners’ stocks included in GDX soared this past summer, blasting higher after gold’s decisive breakout to its bull market’s first new highs in several years.
GDX’s strong 29.0% surge over the next 2.5 months into early September capped a larger 76.2% upleg over 11.8 months. Naturally last summer’s sharp rally generated much excitement and greed in this small contrarian sector. So the gold stocks needed to correct or consolidate, either selling off deeply enough or drifting sideways long enough to restore sentiment balance. Excessive greed is inherently unsustainable.
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Wednesday, January 22, 2020
Junior Gold Mining Stocks Setting Up For Another Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our recent research suggests the US stock market may be entering a period of volatility that may include a broad market rotation/reversion event. We believe this volatility event could begin to happen anytime over the next 10 to 30+ days. The rally in the US stock market ending 2019 and carrying into 2020 appears to be setting up a “rally to a peak” type of price pattern. Please take a minute to review the following articles we’ve posted recently about this topic and how it relates to opportunities in Metals/Miners.
January 20, 2020: Q4 EARNINGS SETUP THE RALLY TO THE PEAK
January 15, 2020: SHIFTING UNDERCURRENTS IN THE US STOCK MARKET
The potential for a volatility spike resulting from a price peak formation (see the January 20, 2020 article above), could setup a moderately broad downside price reversion event that may prompt a 5% to 8%+ downside price correction. If that happens, as we expect, over the next 5 to 10+ trading days, then precious metals and miners should explode to the upside as a “risk-on” trade moves capital into the metals market.
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Saturday, January 18, 2020
Gold Stocks Wavering / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks are wavering, frustrating traders. For the better part of a half-year, this sector has neither broken out nor broken down. Instead it has mostly ground sideways since the last upleg’s peak. Gold stocks being mired in a consolidation so long, even a relatively-high one, is steadily eroding bullish sentiment. That ups the odds it will roll over into a correction, especially considering gold’s situation.
Last summer the gold stocks were rocking, with the leading GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF just soaring. Following gold’s decisive bull-market breakout to its first new highs in several years in late June, GDX blasted 29.0% higher over the next 2.5 months! That generated great bullishness, capping a larger 76.2% upleg over 11.8 months. The major gold stocks dominating GDX were becoming belles of the ball.
That fast run left them super-overbought, so a correction was highly probable to rebalance sentiment in this hot sector. And that indeed looked to be getting underway, with GDX retreating 15.4% over the next 1.3 months into mid-October. The gold stocks mostly bumped along those correction lows for another 1.3 months into late November. Then GDX rallied a bit, but kept grinding sideways on balance for most of December.
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Monday, January 06, 2020
Gold Stocks Head Fake? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold miners’ stocks blasted higher this past week, breaking out of their correction downtrend. Rapidly-improving psychology fueled such strong upside momentum that sector benchmarks are challenging months-old upleg highs. Most traders assume this is righteous, that gold stocks’ next upleg is starting to accelerate. But key indicators argue the contrarian side, that this breakout surge is a head fake within a correction.
In early September, a major gold-stock upleg peaked after soaring higher on gold’s decisive bull-market breakout in late June. The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, this sector’s leading benchmark and trading vehicle, had powered 76.2% higher over 11.8 months. It crested the same day gold’s own upleg did, hitting $30.95 on close. That major 3.1-year high proved the apex of that impressive gold-stock upleg.
Gold started grinding lower after its own September 4th upleg zenith of $1554, capping a massive 32.4% run over 12.6 months. The gold stocks corrected with gold like usual, as these miners are essentially leveraged plays on gold. Since their earnings amplify gold-price changes, the major gold stocks dominating GDX generally leverage gold by 2x to 3x. So the gold stocks drifted lower over the next several months.
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