Category: Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, August 04, 2020
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Our hard working miner here (we’ll call him Huey) has been pushing his cart of rocks, first gently downhill from 2016 to 2018 and then uphill to a bull market since May 2019.
As tracked in NFTRH, in 2019 the macro backdrop became positive for the gold stock sector as gold entered a bull market by taking out the 1378 level and its ratios to stock markets began to rise. Gold/SPX is among the most important macro indicators to a bullish gold mining case as a gold price rising in terms of stocks is the key factor in drawing larger investment (e.g. institutions) to the sector.
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Wednesday, July 15, 2020
Is it Time To Dump Gold Stocks? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Submissions
As a contrarian and long-term holder of Goldcorp. (now Newmont), the latest push higher in the price of gold begs the question: is now the time to sell? The concern, for the uninitiated, is that after the price of gold moves powerfully higher there is an uncanny tendency for forces to mysteriously align and push prices powerfully lower. These “forces” (excuse the conspiratorial flare), have been known to short paper gold contracts in seemingly unlimited quantities, and, according to some, with the implicit backing of the Federal Reserve…
Conspiracy or not, it is obvious that the paper-traded price of gold can have an impact on the physical price of gold and/or the sentiment of those that buy and sell precious metals. After all, just as “$1,800+ gold!” attracts attention, like it did today, so too can headlines like “COMEX gold suffers historic crash!”. In other words, while record inflows into gold ETFs this year are certainly noteworthy, the informed contrarian knows that record inflows can quickly lead to record outflows.
Thursday, July 09, 2020
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Gold stocks have led the market for a year, and with economic deceleration and Fed policy response that leadership looks to continue [edit: today’s ‘in the bag’ bounce-back Jobs report does little to alter the economic deceleration theme]
We have been on a bullish gold mining view for over a year now. Over that time there have been three interruptions, the downward-biased consolidation from August to November 2019, the flash crash (and very constructive gap filling mission) in March and most recently the pullback that logically began in May as broad stock market relief started to fan out to more and more momentum chasers who’d finally gotten the hint that the Fed means to devalue the US currency (in competition to a degree with its global counterparts seeking to do the same), making cash a non-viable investment position (other than for risk management to the bullish asset market atmosphere).
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Friday, July 03, 2020
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold has broken out from a two-month-long consolidation (from $1680 to $1770), but the other precious metals markets have not confirmed Gold’s strength.
The gold stocks (GDX, GDXJ) remain below their May highs while Silver remains below significant, multi-year resistance around $18.75. Silver closed Monday at $18.06.
Furthermore, Gold, when priced against foreign currencies, has not broken out. This move has been driven mostly by dollar weakness.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2020
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold miners’ stocks rocketed out of mid-March’s stock panic, breaking out to major new bull-market highs in mid-May. Such blisteringly-fast gains, and gold stocks’ upleg stalling out since, have left many traders nervous about this sector. Calls for a serious selloff are mounting. But arguing in favor for more near-term gains to come, gold stocks never grew overvalued in this post-panic upleg and are still undervalued today.
The recent gold-stock action is best understood through this sector’s most-popular benchmark, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Holding the world’s biggest and best gold miners, it dominates gold-stock-ETF capital flows. GDX’s world-leading $15.1b in net assets this week are triple the size of its little-brother GDXJ mid-tier gold miners ETF! No other gold-stock ETFs come remotely close to GDX’s scale.
And the major gold stocks of GDX have been on a wild ride in recent months. As gold itself got sucked into mid-March’s stock panic, which was fueled by fears of the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns, the gold stocks plummeted. GDX collapsed 38.8% in 0.6 months into mid-March. And the final couple days of that were technically a full-on crash, a 20%+ cratering in 2 days. GDX crashed 24.5% in that span!
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Wednesday, June 17, 2020
Gold Stocks Investment Strong / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold investment demand remains strong, buoying the yellow metal and its miners’ stocks. Investors have continued actively diversifying into gold despite soaring stock markets and weaker summer seasonals. The Fed’s extreme money printing fueling these precarious stock-market heights is perilously inflationary, making upping gold portfolio allocations essential. This ongoing capital shift is likely to keep pushing gold higher.
The dominant driver of gold’s major price trends is investment demand. While it isn’t the largest demand category, it varies greatly depending on global-financial-market conditions. The best global gold supply-and-demand data is only published quarterly by the venerable World Gold Council, in its must-read Gold Demand Trends reports. They highlight the big volatility inherent in gold investment demand in recent years.
From 2015 to 2019, jewelry demand averaged 51.2% of overall gold demand. But the biggest jewelry year out of the last 5 was only 1.2x the smallest one in tonnage-demand terms. Investment demand only averaged 29.0% of overall gold demand in 2015 to 2019, yet the difference between the best and worst years in this span was 1.7x. The WGC’s latest GDT on Q1’20 again proved how important investment is.
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Tuesday, June 16, 2020
Gold Stocks Correction and Upcoming Opportunity / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Before updating the status of the gold miner (HUI) correction, let’s take a quick review of the Macrocosm, because it’s always a good time to be clear on important macro considerations.
The graphic makes the following points that are the foundation of the NFTRH view on the right/wrong times to be fundamentally bullish on the gold stock sector. In order of priority, a bullish view needs:
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Monday, June 08, 2020
Gold Stocks Healthy Upleg / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks just rolled over into a correction, raising concerns about the staying power of their massive post-panic upleg. These higher prevailing gold prices have driven very-strong fundamentals at the gold miners. But they are entering the seasonally-weak summer doldrums. And current sentiment and technicals play major roles in governing when uplegs remain healthy or ready to give up their ghosts.
The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF remains the leading and dominant benchmark for this small contrarian sector. Its $14.3b in net assets this week were a colossal 33.2x bigger than those of its next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor! GDX’s only real rival is its little-brother GDXJ mid-tier gold-miners ETF, which is only about one-third of GDX’s size. The GDX gold stocks have sure had a wild ride.
Normally the major gold miners of GDX leverage material gold moves by 2x to 3x. Gold stocks’ excess gains during gold uplegs are necessary to compensate traders for miners’ big additional risks on top of gold-price fluctuations. These include operational risks at individual mines, geopolitical risks in countries hosting gold mines, financial risks from hedging and currency fluctuations, along with many other risks.
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Friday, June 05, 2020
Tying Gold Miners and USD Signals for What Comes Next / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The precious metals sector was likely to decline, and it did exactly that. And based on what we just saw, it’s likely to decline even more.
Once again, the situation yesterday and so far today developed quite in tune with what we wrote yesterday, so today’s analysis will take form of a broad update. Let’s take a look at the GLD ETF. In yesterday’s and Monday’s analyses, we described it in the following way:
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Tuesday, May 26, 2020
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
Before we look at tonights charts I would like to go over some challenges that we’ll face as the current impulse move in the PM complex continues to move higher. It’s not everyday that you will find yourself getting in close to the bottom of a multi month rally. One of the biggest problems I’ve witnessed over the years, especially with PM stock investors, is they grow complacent as the rally phase starts maturing. They believe they are invincible as their profits rise and everything is right with the world. That complacency usually means not getting out close to the end of the impulse move which is extremely hard to do even if you’re looking for a top. They will either sell in panic as the correction takes hold or hang on to their positions during the entire correction which is emotionally hard to do.
I know many here traded in the 2000 to 2011 bull market in the precious metals complex. During that great bull market how many actually made any serious money? By making serious money I mean actually taking it out of the market to payoff debt or take a major vacation or help someone in need or whatever to actually use it. What the markets give us during the impulse rally will usually take it back during the following consolidation phase as investors aren’t aware of what is taking place until it’s too late. It’s just the nature of trading the markets.
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Tuesday, May 19, 2020
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
So here we are, with the sector leading the recovery out of the March crash during still-deflationary times. Inflation? It is not yet anywhere to be found, and that probably has a lot of inflation-centric would-be gold boosters on the sidelines. Someday, when these ladies are in full cheer with inflation signals rising, it will be time for caution.
Meanwhile, for years we have stuck to the real fundamental backdrop that would produce a real bull market in the gold stock sector (ref. the 2001 and Q4 2008 time frames).
Our handy ‘Macrocosm’ generally shows the most important considerations as the larger planets and the least important as the smaller ones. As the gold stock bull market starts to gain attention beyond we gold lunatics and enters the mainstream, I thought I would update each component of the Macrocosm.
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Tuesday, May 19, 2020
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Jason_Hamlin
The gold price made a new 2020 high today and looks poised to take out the nominal all-time high around $1,920 and then challenge $2,000 in the months ahead. Some are even estimating that gold could climb to $3,000 by year-end on account of the nearly $10 trillion in new money/debt/stimulus that is being created in the US alone to fight the pandemic.
This 2020 gold price target of $3,000 is a little too aggressive in my view, but I would not be surprised if gold reaches this level at some point over the next few years. Indeed, there seems to be no limit to the amount of new money the FED is willing to create and the government is willing to hand out in order to keep things afloat.
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Friday, May 15, 2020
Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The precious metals market did almost nothing yesterday, and consequently we have relatively little to comment on today. There are two subtly bearish signs that we would like to feature, nonetheless.
The first subtly bearish sign is the change in the way the USD Index “topped” this month. In early April, and then in late April, the USDX reversed close to the 101 level and then moved lower in a decisive way, until declining below 99. This time has already proved to be different.
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Friday, May 15, 2020
Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical expert Clive Maund explains why he believes gold and silver are powering up for a stratospheric advance.
The deflation and depression is right here, right now, and if you don't believe that, try asking some of the 30 million people who just lost their jobs in the U.S., or those who (used to) work in the catering and tourism industries.
The Federal Reserve is reacting to this situation by working to create hyperinflation, because it finds it preferable to a deflationary implosion. There are two reasons for this. One is that it enables the Fed to continue to fulfill its time-honored role, which is to transfer wealth from the rest of society to the 1%, and the other is it defers complete systemic collapse for a little longer.
The Fed has created a staggering amount of new money since this crisis started a few months ago to feed the debt monster. Its balance sheet has gone exponential and is expanding vertically, guaranteeing hyperinflation, which will begin the moment the velocity of money starts to pick up. Currently there is no velocity of money because the economy is dead, but if you print enough money to throw at it, as in countless trillions, you can get things moving again.
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Friday, May 08, 2020
Junior Gold Miners Ready To Run / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Both Gold and Silver Futures have been struggling to rally above recent high levels since the start of the global stock market collapse related to the COVID-19 virus event. Yet, the Junior Gold Miners appear to be telling us the Precious Metals market is boiling hot.
Gold, the bell-weather safe-haven asset, initially collapsed when the US stock market started the massive selloff in late February 2020, then recovered to higher price levels near $1785 recently. Since reaching these levels, Gold has stalled into a sideways price flag near major resistance.
Silver, on the other hand, is trading near $15.60 and has yet to really recover to anywhere near the levels it had achieved in early January 2020 (near $18.60).
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Sunday, May 03, 2020
Monster Gains in Mining Stocks Bode Well for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: MoneyMetals
April marks a second month of truly extraordinary developments in markets – from negatively priced crude oil futures to a record spike in unemployment claims to a lockdown-defying rally in stocks.
The financial media is touting the S&P 500’s surge of more than 13% in April – the biggest one-month gain for the index since 1974.
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Wednesday, April 29, 2020
Gold Stocks Bull Breakout! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks surged to a major bull-market breakout this week! Powering decisively above their years-old secular resistance is a hugely-important technical event. It proves this gold-stock bull is alive and well, greatly improves sentiment, and puts this high-flying sector on countless more traders’ radars. New bull highs fuel self-feeding bullish psychology, as speculators and investors love chasing winners.
The gold miners’ stocks are essentially leveraged plays on gold, since its price overwhelmingly drives their earnings and thus ultimately stock prices. So gold-stock bulls and bears mirror and amplify gold’s own major market cycles. Today’s secular gold bull began marching in mid-December 2015, birthed from choking despair. Gold stocks’ parallel bull arose from the ashes about a month later in mid-January 2016.
The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF is this sector’s most-popular benchmark today. It plunged to a fundamentally-absurd all-time-record low of $12.47 at that terrible nadir. This major gold miners’ ETF had collapsed 81.3% during the previous 4.4 years in an exceedingly-brutal bear market! Left for dead, virtually everyone hated this small contrarian sector. But such shocking extremes forge new secular bulls.
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Monday, April 27, 2020
How Will You Play the Precious Metals Stocks Bull Market ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Rambus_Chartology
There are as many ways to play the PM sector as there are investors. Some will only buy the big cap PM stocks for safety. Others will only buy the mid cap producers. Some will only buy a mix of big caps and mid cap producers. And then there are the PM stock investors that will only play the juniors. Each has its own advantage depending on your risk tolerance. Some of you are wondering why is Rambus’s portfolio structured like it is with hardly any big caps?
After a great run during the tech bull market that ended in 2000 I was able to basically retire and build our dream home. After that bull market ended I was left looking for another area in which to invest. It wasn’t until early 2002 that I saw a chart for gold which was showing a very large base that caught my attention. Whenever I see a big base I have to study it more to see what is behind the price action. The more I looked, it became apparent to me, that a new bull market may be starting to form in the PM complex.
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Monday, April 27, 2020
Gold Stock Cycles / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: readtheticker
Gold stocks are the crazy ride in the markets. The swing are so great it does not matter if you miss a bullish the break out as another deep pull back allows you to enter with ease.
The good news is the (!XAU) PHLX Gold/Silver Index (in the chart below) is very friendly to price cycles. These cycles can be used for timing markets, it also makes it clear if you fight the price cycle you may be in line for a heavy draw down.
At the moment XAU price is making new 52 week highs and the blue cycle line suggest a cycle top is due, therefore it may be wise to wait for price to peak and pullback before building positions. A tactical reason (Richard Ney logic) is the big boys have been accumulating in the friendly institutional stocks and this will attract profit taking [as they do not want to get too far ahead of the wider market] easily sending down the gold stock index and components of the XAU.
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Saturday, April 25, 2020
Junior Gold Miners Dangerously Close to the Cliff / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
There are times to keep being focused on higher timeframes, yet the finer ones do send valuable signals at times too. And today, every precious metals investor better pay attention to their message. Take a look at the below chart featuring the miners.
We will compare the junior miners to what GLD ETF and SPY did. The latter are ETFs representing gold and the S&P 500.