Category: Stock Markets 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, May 18, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My in-depth analysis first made avilable to patrons who support my work on the of 1st March 2019 Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019 concluded in the trend forecast for the Dow to achieve at least 28,000 by Mid September 2019.
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Friday, May 17, 2019
Stock Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Many traders are watching the recent 3-day rally thinking “this is the end of the downside price move” and targeting new entry positions for the eventual upside price breakout. We’re here to warn you that our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting we could see more volatility over the next 45+ days before a price breakout sets up.
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is something we like to keep away from public view for the most part. It is not something we share with the public often because it tends to show quite a bit of information about the future to skilled eyes. Today, you are going to get a glimpse of the ADL system on Weekly and Monthly TRAN charts to help you understand what to expect over the next 45+ days.
The ADL predictive modeling system is capable of learning from past price action and modeling “price DNA markers” based on a custom inference engine we created for this utility. That means it is capable of learning from any chart, any interval, any price data and any type of price activity while mapping the price data, technical data and corresponding future price activity into what we call and DNA price chain. After that mapping process is complete, we are able to ask it to show us what it has found and how current price bars align with the DNA mapping to show us what is likely for the future.
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Thursday, May 16, 2019
Is Someone Secretly Smashing the Stock Market at Night? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market has been rallying throughout the day and selling off at night throughout the recent stock market decline. Is this the sign of something more sinister that’s going on in the stock market. Meanwhile, interest rates are falling.
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Thursday, May 16, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 Current State - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My in-depth analysis first made avilable to patrons who support my work on the of 1st March 2019 Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019 concluded in the trend forecast for the Dow to achieve at least 28,000 by Mid September 2019.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Strong Stock Market Rally Expected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The stock market fell in capitulation on Monday, a ‘c’ of “z” type wave that got everyone beared-up. Monday was the 16 TD low and could be the 20 week low as well (94 trading days of the 100 trading day low 15 trading days). The ten week went 49/50 trading days in early March, which is normal. As of Monday we saw 44/45 trading days, which could complete a 10/20 week low pattern (at least 2 ten week patterns).The Dow 30 looks to have made a possible xyz type of B wave bull flag Monday (at least it could be viewed that way by traders). The Dow topped on April 23rd where the SPX topped on May 1, 6 trading days later, making a “b” wave for the Dow, but an irregular “y” wave top for the SPX. It is possible from this configuration that we could see a strong wave of buying into May 21st and then a hard drop into June 5th (110 trading days and 16 trading days from May 13th).
So, we are not out of the woods just yet. My preferred count is a strong rally into early July from May 13th then down into late Sept/early October. The normal 4-year cycle has the July top late in the month or even in early August. For this to happen, we need another big drop like Jan-Feb 2018 from May 21-June 5 to finish Wave B. The reason is, C would = A in time in price. This is called the Equality of Waves Principle.
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Tuesday, May 14, 2019
US China Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends – PART II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In PART I of this report we talked about and showed you the charts of the Hang Seng and DAX index charts and what is likely to unfold. In today’s report here we touch on the US markets. As we’ve suggested within our earlier research posts this year, US election cycles tend to prompt massive price rotations when the election cycles are intense. For example, the 2000 election of George W. Bush prompted a very mild price rotation in 1999~2000. This was likely because the transition from Clinton to Bush II was not overly contentious. The 2008 election of Barrack Obama was a moderately contested election cycle and happened at the time of the biggest credit market collapse in modern history – thus, the markets were well on their way lower 12+ months before the elections. The 2012 election cycle showed moderate price rotation as it was a highly contested election event in the US. The 2015-16 election event was highly contested as well and the price rotation near this time appears longer and deeper than the 2012 event.
Monday, May 13, 2019
Stock Market S&P 500 Negative Expectations Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were gaining on Friday following a lower opening of the trading session and the morning sell-off. The S&P 500 index extended its downtrend before bouncing off and closing 0.4% higher. So was it an upward reversal or just correction within a downtrend?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.1-0.4% on Friday, after bouncing off their new lows as investors’ sentiment improved despite an ongoing trade war. The S&P 500 index retraced the whole of its April’s advance. It currently trades 2.4% below its May the 1st record high of 2,954.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,890-2,900, marked by the previous support level. The resistance level is also at 2,920. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,860-2,865. The support level is also at around 2,835-2,850, marked by April the 1st daily gap up of 2,836.03-2,848.63.
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Monday, May 13, 2019
Stock Market Anticipated Correction Starts On Cue! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The anticipated intermediate term correction has started. Can’t tell yet, if it’s a C-wave or something less.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com
Monday, May 13, 2019
How Chinese Trade Issues Will Drive Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
It is becoming evident that the US/Chinese trade issues are going to become a point of contention for the markets going forward. We’ve been review as much news as possible in an attempt to build a consensus for the future of the US markets and global markets. As of last week, it appears any potential trade deal with China has reset back to square one. The news we are reading suggests that China wants to reset their commitments with the US, remove all tariffs and wants the US to commit to buying certain levels of Chinese goods in the future. Additionally, China has yet to commit to stopping the IP/Technology theft from US companies – which is a very big contention for the US.
This suggests the past 6+ months of trade talks have completely broken down and that this trade issue will likely become a market driver over the next 12+ months. The global markets had anticipated a deal to be reached by the end of March 2019. At that time, Trump announced that he was extending talks with China without installing any new tariffs. The intent was to show commitment with China to reach a deal at that time – quickly.
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Friday, May 10, 2019
Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just as the mainstream media had gotten used to the stock market rallying towards new all time highs into the end of April. Suddenly, out of the blue TRADE WAR PANIC hits the markets and apparently is responsible for the ongoing downturn in the US and world general stock market indices. This illustrates the way the mainstream media tends to work where the big news story of the day is used to explain the direction of a market, with the same news usually spinned as an explanation for either when the market goes up or down! And Mays big news story to explain the downswing is the latest saga in the US / China trade war, namely increased tariffs from 10% to 25% to kick on $200 billion of Chinese goods today (Friday 10th May) triggered by China trying to pull a fast one on the US by backtracking on earlier promises, which illustrates that NO ONE can trust what China says, not even the worlds Super Power!
Friday, May 10, 2019
Stock Market Shake-Out Continues – Where Is The Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Smart traders are already asking themselves “where is the bottom for this move”. They’ve likely been through these types of rotations in market price before and understand the fundamentals of the US economy are strong enough to support further upside price activity in the near future. The current US/China trade worries could result in a pricing disruption of 4 to 8%, seen as rotation, yet the US Fed is continuing to leave rates unchanged and most US economic numbers are still posting strong levels.
So, smart traders want to know where the bottom in the market is likely to be found and when they should start to accumulate new long positions – which is understandable. We’re here to help.
Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is one of the unique modeling tools we use to hone into any market move. The reason for this is because it shows us so much data that we can “read into” our analysis/research. The other reason is that it is an “adaptive learning” model – which means it continues to learn from price data and adapt its analysis of that data.
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Thursday, May 09, 2019
S&P 500 3000 First and Then…? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
When I last wrote on April 26th, I was looking for a move above 2960. We tagged 2954 on May 1 and then pulled back to 2862 on May 7th. The SPX fell into a rising channel formation and declined to go below 2860, which means to me we have one more rally left before we see a more significant decline later in May and early June.
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Thursday, May 09, 2019
May 10th 2019 - A Big Day for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: readtheticker
This Friday (May 10th 2019) TRUMPs red line on the China trade talk will move stocks. Will trends break?
readtheticker.com correlation Period Scan tool suggest it will be either OutPut1 or OutPut2. Of course correlation is not causation, but a equity market trend of 10 years may soon find its end.
95% correlation scans are always interesting.
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Wednesday, May 08, 2019
US Stock Markets Could Rally Beyond Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Late Sunday afternoon, President Trump surprised the global markets with the announcement of increased trade tariffs with China relating to the ongoing trade negotiations and delayed trade talks between the two global superpowers. The global markets reacted immediately upon the open Sunday night (Asian open). The VIX short position puts quite a bit of professional traders at risk of big losses today while those of us that were prepared for an increase in volatility and price rotation is poised for some incredible opportunities.
The US stock market is set up for a price move that will likely make many people very wealthy while frustrating many others over the next few months. We’ve recently posted many articles regarding the 2020 US Presidential election cycle and the fear cycle that comes from these major political events. In November 2016, we remember watching Gold rally $60 early in the election night, then fall $100 as news began reporting the surprise winner. There is so much capital, and future capital expectations that ride on these election cycles – it can actually drive the markets in one direction or another.
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Tuesday, May 07, 2019
When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market managed to squeak out some additional gains this week, and the S&P is now up 15 of the past 19 weeks. A lot of traders are probably wondering “when will the stock market’s rally end?”
The economy’s fundamentals determine the stock market’s medium-long term outlook. Technicals determine the stock market’s short-medium term outlook. Here’s why:
- The stock market’s long term risk:reward is no longer bullish.
- The medium term direction (e.g. next 6-12 months) has a bullish lean.
- The stock market’s short term leans bearish
Tuesday, May 07, 2019
Stock Market Failed Attempt / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The trend which started at 2346 could be close to making a final high (as a B-wave?) before another significant correction begins.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
When the Uber-Wealthy Bash the Wealth Gap, It's Time to Worry / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: EWI
By Murray Gunn
Multi-billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio recently published a 7500-word call to reform American capitalism. Noting that the nation's wealth gap is the "highest since the 1930s," Dalio wrote that rather than distributing income equally, capitalism is "producing self-reinforcing spirals up for the haves and down for the have-nots" which "pose existential threats to the United States," and amount to a "national emergency."
Parts of Dalio's message sound eerily close to another article authored by another uber-successful capitalist, John J. Raskob. In his piece "Everybody Aught to Be Rich," Raskob writes:
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Saturday, May 04, 2019
Dangerous Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
These record US stock-market levels are very dangerous, riddled with extreme levels of euphoria and complacency. Largely thanks to the Fed, traders are convinced stocks can rally indefinitely. But stock prices are very expensive relative to underlying corporate earnings, with valuations back up near bubble levels. These are classic topping signs, with profits growth stalling and the Fed out of easy dovish ammunition.
Stock markets are forever cyclical, meandering in an endless series of bulls and bears. The latter phase of these cycles is inevitable, like winter following summer. Traders grow too excited in bull markets, and bid up stock prices far higher than their fundamentals support. Subsequent bear markets are necessary to eradicate unsustainable valuation excesses, forcing stock prices sideways to lower until profits catch up.
This latest bull market grew into a raging monster largely fueled by extreme Fed easing. At its latest all-time record peak hit just this week, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) has soared 335.4% higher over 10.1 years! That makes for the second-biggest and first-longest bull in US history, only possible because it gorged on $3625b of quantitative-easing money printing by the Fed over 6.7 years.
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Saturday, May 04, 2019
S&P 500 Reversal Signals Becoming Apparent? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Submissions
In the early parts of 2019, the biggest stories in the financial markets have become apparent in the S&P 500. Corporate earnings seasons was initially expected to be problematic for several major industry sectors. But quarterly earnings managed to outperform analyst expectations roughly 80% of the releases for the period and this helped propel the main U.S. stock benchmarks back toward record levels.
Near the end of the summer period in 2018, many equities analysts were beginning to think this was unlikely for 2019. Target price projections for several sectors were revised lower, and this led to rising volatility where many of the market’s key tech stock names (i.e. Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft) fell to new short-term lows. In the periods which which followed, however, the S&P 500 has received a forceful round of dip-buying. Very little in the way if technical price retracement has been visible, but this is not always the type of trend market watchers hope for in terms of long-term sustainability.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
How Close is the Stock Market From Topping? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Now that most of the US Major Indexes have breached new all-time price highs, which we called over 5+ months ago, and many traders are starting to become concerned about how and where the markets may find resistance or begin to top, we are going to try to paint a very clear picture of the upside potential for the markets and why we believe volatility and price rotation may become a very big concern over the next few months. Our objective is to try to help you stay informed of pending market rotation and to alert you that we may be nearing a period within the US markets where increased volatility is very likely.
Longer term, many years into the future, our predictive modeling systems are suggesting this upside price swing is far from over. Our models suggest that price rotation will become a major factor over the next 12 to 15+ months – headed into the US Presidential election cycle of November 2020. Our models are suggesting that the second half of this year could present an incredible opportunity for skilled investors as price volatility/rotation provide bigger price swings. Additionally, our models suggest that early 2020 will provide even more opportunity for skilled traders who are able to understand the true price structure of the markets. Get ready, thing are about to get really interesting and if you are not following our research or a member of our services, you might want to think about joining soon.
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