Category: Stock Markets 2016
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
Statistically Significant Stock Market Death Cross? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Will skeptics and backers of Death Cross finally unite? The S&P500 is currently showing a pattern seen in June 2008 and March 2001, both cases in which the index lost more than 30%. The 50-week moving average is crossing below the 100-week moving average, a pattern whose importance has been highlighted by its rarity and consequence.
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
The ‘Tide’ has turned… NEGATIVE For STOCKS!!! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Currently, a ‘sharp fall’ is now anticipated within the equity markets! This decline will be accompanied with ‘new volatility’. There is a great deal of ‘uncertainty ‘within the U.S. markets. Currently, we are viewing a ‘textbook’ ‘head and shoulders pattern’ in the SPX and is going to be a big inflection point we look back on months from now.
There are less and less stocks that are participating in the recent move upwards which suggest a technical breakdown is likely to happen.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
Stock Market on the Precipice / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Ed_Carlson
For over three weeks equities have been pulling back from the high on April 20; a high that tested the same level seen in the S&P 500 at the August and November highs – 2,110. A break of 2,033 will confirm that the herd has turned. The 200-dma and horizontal support converge near 2,012-2021. However, a break of 2,040 will trigger a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern that measures a minimum decline to 1,970.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Implications for Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
At the start of the year the prevailing mood in the oil market was not just one of gloom and doom but of catastrophe as the oil price sunk below $30, skidding by the middle of February to virtually touch $25, a period during which many prominent analysts and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs all of whom were bearish on the prospects for oil prices this year some even suggesting that the oil price could sink to as low as $10 (Standard Chartered) which meant that the oil producers large and small, the frackers and even a string of nations such as Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela were on the fast track towards going bust as their oil profits that financed their state spending budget deficits evaporated.
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
Stock Market Retracement Rally May be Complete Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The SPX Premarket is lower this morning, but there may be some unfinished business to the upside. Due to the length of time that it has taken, I have assigned a higher degree Wave label to this Cycle. This morning it will have taken 129 hours from the April 20 high to possibly its Wave 2 high. A possible target may be 2075.00.
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
Stock Market Fooling Them Yet Again.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
The market loves to fake the masses. With the Dow closing decently below the 50-day exponential moving average on Friday, with the S&P 500 testing it, and with the small caps also closing well below the 50's, it seemed as if the bears had finally seen their time arrive. Most folks believed that today we'd see a big gap down, and run lower all day as the bears finally took control of this stubborn market. The bears also had some nice hope once the futures opened for trading last night.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 16, 2016
Stock Market One Big Inflection Point We Will Look Back On / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This week will very likely be one we look back on as a big inflection point. We will see that the bears are coming back.
It appears the market is forming a head and shoulders topping pattern. Thre are a couple different ways to trade this pattern depending on the level of skill and aggressiveness.
One can wait for a closing bar below the ‘neckline’ on the time-frame in which you have identified the pattern. By operating on a closing bar basis you significantly reduce the risk of entering on a ‘false’ breakout. Entering prior to the close of the bar increases the risk of becoming part of the wick of a reversal candlestick should it close back above ‘neckline’ support.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 16, 2016
Stock Market Rally Back to the 4.5-year Trendline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is above its 50-day Moving Average this morning. This has caused overlap in the decline and indicated something more bearish may result. Assuming that today’s Pi date is forecasting another Master Cycle low imminently, the overlap creates a (i)-(ii), i-ii scenario that suggests a flash crash may be in the making. This may be followed up by a plunge beneath the Head & Shoulders Neckline at 2040.00. The retracement may go as high as the 4.5-year trendline.
Monday, May 16, 2016
Stock Market Futures Flat. Mixed Signals Abound / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX Premarket has been flat up until now. There may be a better indication of direction closer to the open.
The attempts at a bounce have been technical and haven’t had a large effect. ZeroHedge reports, “The main risk over the weekend was that markets, which have now dropped for three consecutive weeks the longest negative streak since January, would focus their attention on the latest batch of negative Chinese economic news released over the weekend, which missed expectations across the board, most prominently in Retail Sales (10.1% vs. Exp. 10.6%, down from 10.5%) and Industrial Production (6.0% vs. Exp. 6.5% down from 6.8%), an
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 16, 2016
Stock Market Mixed Expectations Following Friday's Move Down - Will It Continue Lower? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Monday, May 16, 2016
Stock Market First Support Level Re-Tested / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The beginning of a lengthy correction is most likely underway!
SPX Intermediate trend: May be in the process of forming a H&S bull market top.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 15, 2016
Stock Market Cycle Low Next Week - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Gary_Savage
Transcript excerpt: in today's video I'm going to go over what i think is going to transpire next
week in a row also going to refute the notion that this is a daily cycle
so-called cycle experts calling this daily cycle low and they're claiming
that the intermediate cycle is rolling over that is correct in order to qualify
as a daily cycle oh yes to be deep enough for long enough to turn sentiment
at least modern Lee Parrish preferably extremely bearish one of the technical
signs of a daily cycle lows that it will be moving average down and you can see
this little three date did a dip in early April did not it was not deep enough for long enough to turn today
Saturday, May 14, 2016
Playing With A Breakdown... Stock Market At An Inflection Point... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
The market has been bifurcated for quite some time with froth leading lower while the S&P 500 and Dow try to hold up the market. Money has been rotating in to the S&P 500, because that's where lower froth, lower P/E and higher dividend stocks live. Big money hasn't made the big move, yet, of distributing out their plays. While they are acting more risk adverse, they still have been playing as if they want to spend more time with the world of the S&P 500 stocks. We know this, because, while the Nasdaq has long ago lost the 20-, 50-, and 200-day exponential moving averages, the S&P 500, before today, was above its 50-day exponential moving average. It had lost the 20's, but was still above the 50's, and well above the 200's, which lives at 2023. The 50's at 2048. So only if the S&P 500 were to lose 2048, and then 2023, would the market be in big trouble?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 13, 2016
Stock Market Confirmed Sell. Bounces Still Possible / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has crossed its 50-day Moving Average at 2055.10 and is headed for the Head & Shoulders neckline at 2040.00. I know that it is a shallow formation, but there is a potential for another neckline at 1967.85, where another support lies. The target for that formation appears to be nearer 1800.00. Fourth wave necklines are not as strong as those at a wave one. However, they can be equally valid. Let’s see how it follows through beneath the neckline.
Friday, May 13, 2016
Stock Market Challenging the 50-day Moving Average / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The SPX Premarket shows it challenging the 50-day Moving Average. How the market opens will tell us whether that support is broken. The odds of a break of the Cycle bottom and Head & shoulders neckline would be high once the 50-day is behind us.
ZeroHedge reports, “Global stocks have started Friday the 13th on the wrong foot, with not only Hong Kong GDP unexpectedly tumbling by 0.4%, the worst print in years while retail sales fell for a thirteenth straight month in March, the longest stretch since 1999 as the Chinese hard landing spreads to the wealthy enclave, but also following a predicted collapse in Chinese new loan creation, which will reverberate not only in China but around the globe in the coming weeks. The latest overnight drop in the Yuan hinted that should the recent USD strength continue, China will have no choice but to repeat its devaluation from last summer and winter.“
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 12, 2016
A Retest of Stock Market Resistance... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX bounced back within ticks of its mid-cycle resistance at 2070.92 and within a point of its 50% retracement at 2069.99. We may see it decline back beneath its 4.5-year trendline this afternoon. Short positions should be in place, as it appears the next few days may be eventful.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 12, 2016
Stock Market Decline Makes a Tentative Beginning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is still on an aggressive sell signal. It has crossed the first support at 2077.76, but has several more to go. The Aggressive sell becomes a confirmed sell beneath the 4.5-year trendline or the 50-day Moving Average, now up to 2049.40.
Thursday, May 12, 2016
More Short-Term Stock Market Uncertainty As Stocks Hover Along Last Year's Medium-Term Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, May 12, 2016
Stock Market Turns Down After Two-Day Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had a turn-around day after a two-day rally. They retraced and are doing some retesting here, ending the day on a sour note. The day started out with a pop to the upside, they made new highs on the Nasdaq 100, but the S&P 500 failed to confirm. When that occurred, they came down hard, formed bear wedges, and by midday were headed lower. In the afternoon there was a steady sell off in stair-step fashion, and they closed near the lows for the day going away.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 12, 2016
S&P 500 Back Testing...Retail Crushed.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
The market can confuse the best of them. No one could have seen today coming after we broke out yesterday on the S&P 500 with its move above the 20-day exponential moving average at 2069. It had traded between the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages for a few days, but then suddenly made the move up, although there didn't seem to be a good reason to do so. Since earnings are poor along with a plethora of other problems it made little sense to make the move, although the trend is clearly higher. That said, the move was made and it was made with some force as we closed at 2084, nearly one percent above.Read full article... Read full article...