S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024 Jan 01, 2024 - 09:25 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
HAPPY NEW YEAR 2024!
The S&P ends 2023 at 4770, a raging bull market that has been missed by most as 2023 proved to be another year where the consensus got it badly wrong, doom and gloom, a recession was seen as being a done deal as it was for 2022, then there was the debt ceiling nothing burger, QT! What QT? We had stealth QE via the reverse repo market, and the banking crisis nothing burger, plenty of reasons why NOT to invest all the way down from the likes of Stanley Druckenmiller through to the perma fools on the CNBC cartoon network, blogosFear all convinced most to park their funds into T-bills and money market accounts.
In fact it is even worse than that as Equity Funds experienced a net outflow of about $250 billion during 2023. so not only did investors not invest they actually sold stocks during the year, parking $1.3 trillion into money market funds alone. I strongly suspect that most of this money is institutions rather than retail, because they do tend to be SACRED money, fund managers terrified of making mistakes and losing money, thus I think it will take some time for this scared money to flow into the stock market as the psychology of fund managers is not the same as that of individual investors who seek to maximise profits, whilst fund managers seek to minimise risk so that they get to keep their jobs, thus contrary to expectations that institutional money will flood into stocks when the Fed starts to cuts during 2024.
This chart further illustrates the lay of the investing land, despite having had a huge bull ruin, most investors are positioned in cash as if they are sat at a bear market bottom! The disconnect is INCREDIBLE! The chart title "The Source of Bull markets of 2024" would be more accurate as "Where the Scared Money Is Sat 2024"
Implications for the stock market is that 2024 and 2025 should be bullish years as the scared money gradually flows into stocks..
So understand this those who invested to any significant degree in the stock market during 2023 went against the herd and thus have experienced extraordinary returns, that one could only have dreamt of at the start of the year let alone 15 months ago when I completed my last full spectrum in-depth analysis of the stock market and resulting trend forecast. It's at times such as this that folks need to pause for a moment and guard against complacency by making the mistake of chasing the dragon, for instance feeling the fomo and thinking one should pile into no earnings turd stocks which ARE a GAMBLE! Yes many no earnings stocks will have bull runs during 2024 but you will only really know which in hindsight!
S&P up over 24%, we do not experience the likes of 2023 often, i.e the primary and secondary AI tech stocks collectively soared by a staggering 80%! That is abnormal and a function of what happens during the first full calendar year of a bull market that followed the Bear market that ended October 2022. So whilst most are focused on the S&P and it's feeble 24% gain, still waiting for the S&P to put in that new all time high, the reality is the S&P is a nothing burger as the AI tech stocks collective portfolio including the good, bad and ugly has passed it's last bull market high a while ago!
Nevertheless the focus of this analysis is to once more resolve in a detailed trend forecast for the S&P 500 utilising last years analysis as a template to build upon as well as laying the ground work to capitalise on AI tech stocks on their exponential trend trajectory.
S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024
CONTENTS
Investing in the Stock Market is Like Boxing With Mike Tyson
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks
Synthetic Intelligence
The Roaring AI 2020's
Stock Market 2023 Trend Forecast Review
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE
Major Market lows by Calendar Month
US Exponential Budget Deficit
QE4EVER
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic
S&P Real Earnings Yield
S&P EGF EPS Growth
When WIll the Fed Pivot
Stocks and Inverted Yield Curve
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates
US Dollar Trend 2024
US Recession Already Happened in 2022!
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions
Margin Debt
Stock Market Breadth
Stock Market Investor Sentiment
Bitcoin S&P Pattern
SP Long-term Trend Analysis
Dow Annual Percent Change
Stock Market Volatility (VIX)
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS
Correlating Seasonal Swings
Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal
Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
S&P Stock Market Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Primary AI Stocks
AI - Secondary Stocks
TESLA
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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