Have US Bonds Bottomed?

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A patron asked if US bonds have bottomed / are cheap to buy now that inflation is 'peaking'.

What I see is a severe bear market that had taken US bonds to a very oversold state (MACD) with the recent rally being very feeble and purely acting to unwind from that very oversold state. So I doubt very much that US bonds have bottomed. Though the rate of decent should moderate and become more choppy as the market works it's way through a series of CPI monthly prints so a more gradual trend lower towards the natural support level of $100 is likely. The fact that bonds are rolling over and likely to trend lower once more is another confirming reason for lower stock prices ahead, i.e. falling bond prices equates to rising interest rates, though the relationship between bond prices and stock prices is more complex than that as bonds are usually supposed to be a safe haven for investors during a stocks bear market. Instead bond investors have got hit far worse than stock investors which isn't surprising given out of control inflation. The only reason bonds held up for as long as they did was because of the Fed BUYING US bonds to monetize government debt which apparently the Fed has now stopped doing for the time being hence falling bond prices.

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Most recent analysis -

• The Psychology of Investing in a Stocks Bear Market
• Dow 2022 Stock Market Trend Pattern
• AI Tech Stocks Name of the Game, Climate Change Housing Market Impact and the Next Empires

Whilst my recent in-depth analysis is - UK House Prices Three Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025, where I pealed away every layer of the UK housing market I could think of to arrive at a high probability of trend forecast, no following of the consensus herd here! Whilst completion of my extensive analysis of the US housing market is imminent.

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
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Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
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RECESSION RISKS 2023
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Britains' Hyper Housing Market
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UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
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Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast 
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024

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Your analyst BUYING the panic selling falling knives.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2022 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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