Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season
Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021 Oct 08, 2021 - 11:30 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The stock market is continuing to rally on FOMO fumes with the Dow up 1.5% for August as the market enters the seasonally worst month of the year for stocks, followed by October, and we all know what October's tend to herald, especially for markets that have run well beyond every expectation and value metric that one can think of which is true for a wide spectrum of stocks from our AI tech giants right through to the junk that populates the likes of Cathy Woods ARK Funds, metrics as I covered in recent analysis such as the Reverse REPO market RED FLAG, then we have margin debt soaring to well beyond all previous market highs which actually would be expected in nominal terms given inflation, however Margin debt has also soared to new highs as a percentage of GDP 3.9% vs 3% in 2000. Here's another flashing RED LIGHT that of the market cap of negative earning stocks exceeding that of the dot com bubble, so folks enjoy your FOMO whilst it lasts, I personally have battened down the hatches for the hurricane that's coming our way that will likely blow novice investors out of the water, especially those who are investing on margin!
Contents:
- FOMO Fumes on Negative Earnings
- Cathy Woods ARK Funds Performance Year to Date - Chinese Stocks Big Mistake
- INTEL The Two Steps Forward One Step Back Corporation
- AMD Ryzen 3D
- New Potential Addition to my AI Stocks Portfolio
- Why is Netflix a FAANG Stock?
- Stock Market CRASH / Correction
- What if I am Wrong and There is No Correction?
- How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market?
- Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia
- VIES - Variable Interest Entities
- CCP Paranoid
- Best AI Tech Stocks ETF?
- Best UK Investment Trust
- AI Stocks Buying Pressure Evaluation
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- AI Stocks Portfolio KEY
- What to Buy Today?
- INVEST AND FORGET HIGH RISK STOCKS!
- High Risk Stocks KEY
- Bitcoin Trend Forecast Current State
- Crypto Bear Market Accumulation Current State
- Crazy Crypto Exchanges - How to Buy Bitcoin for $42k, Sell for $59k when trading at $47k!
The whole of this extensive analysis (Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season, Chinese Stocks and Bitcoin Trend Update) was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month that is soon set to increase to $4 per month for new Patrons, so a short window of opportunity exists to lock in at $3 per month now before the price hike. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Note: The information provided in this article is solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation or personalised advice.
Cathy Woods ARK Funds Performance Year to Date - Chinese Stocks Big Mistake
ARK funds are typically down 5 to 8% year to date, compare this to my top 6 mega cap AI tech giant stocks that are up a whopping 25%! Well beyond my usual expectations for an average annual return of 20% per year. Even the sleepers are up 12%!
This illustrates the dangers of investing in funds because basically they tend to be mostly sales and marketing hype where the aim is to suck in new money so what investors are exposed to is very effective and polished marketing machines that over time seduce investors into either investing directly into their funds or buying the stocks the funds are invested in thus driving prices higher. And so is the case with Cathy Woods momentum driven funds where I consider most of her holdings to be garbage!
Look at what she did with her Chinese stocks, she literally bought at the highs when they were expensive when I would not have touched them with a barge pole! And then SOLD them at the LOWS after they had fallen by 50% to become fairly valued, even enticing me to buy, and then we hear that supposedly she is buying some again.
INTEL The Two Steps Forward One Step Back Corporation
Intel's CPU fight back is about to begin with it's 10nm Alder Lake processors cutting power consumption whilst increasing performance usually achieved by increasing the number of cores. Intel's solution is similar to that of Apples M1 hybrid of performance and efficiency cores architecture so an Alder lake 16 core processor will have 8 performance and 8 efficiency cores delivering 24 threads to reduce power consumption / heat output.
With 3 product lines for desktops, mobiles and ultra mobiles
Though we will have to wait towards the end of this year for real world performance benchmarking to reveal whether Alderlake will turn out to be a winner or not. Still it does illustrate that Intel is finally innovating beyond sky lake architecture that Intel had been stuck with for over decade with their 14nm++++ revisions!
Unfortunately for Intel AMD has not been set on their loral's, next Gen Zen 4 5nm EPYC processors will have 96 cores up from 64core zen 3 that will crush Intel's Xeon Sapphire Rapids architecture in the server market.
So don't make the mistake of selling AMD! No matter how high or low the stock trades to! AMD continues to innovate on an EPYC scale!
Back to point, why invest in Intel? Well because it is dirt cheap, trades on a PE of 11, and on my EC metric is the cheapest stock on my list, and on an AI metric has upwards buying pressure of 154%. So whilst it is still losing ground to AMD, however the stock is no longer dieing i.e. it is moving beyond a decade long stagnation which affords the possibility for upwards surprises for Intel has the capability and resources to innovate as it still remains a very profitable company that continues to buy back stock at a rapid pace in attempts to lift it's price beyond it's 20 year trading range to finally overcome the 2000 dot com bubble high and thus signal to the world that Intel is back!
But Intel Still Continues to Screw Things Up
Back in late 2017 the US Department of Energy had contracted Intel to build their Aurora 1 exoflop super computer that was first supposed to be delivered during 2018, but Intel's failure to deliver has meant that the delivery date has continued to shift forward with now 2021 being shuffled into 2022.
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Well now the US Department of Energy has had enough and has done a deal with AMD and Nvidia to use their EPYC Cpus and A100 GPU's to create a new Polaris Super computer estimated to perform at 44 peta flops, so significantly less than the 1000 peta flop that Intel is supposed to deliver, so not a replacement for Aurora but rather a stop gap due to Intel incompetence to deliver. And when is Polaris supposed to be delivered by? Well within the next few weeks! Also it is highly probable that the processing power of Polaris will be expanded well beyond 44 peta flops over time as more cores are added to the AMD / Nvidia hybrid super computer. And this is why Intel trades on a PE of 11 when Nvidia is floating high as a kite on 65, and AMD at 53, because Intel is INCOMPETANT!
Though on the flip side we get opportunities to buy a prime AI tech stock trading very cheaply as we wait for the company to become COMPETANT and actually start delivering that which it promises to deliver on time!
AMD Ryzen 3D
AMD could be bringing forward it's release of Zen 4 processors to Q4 this year! Which illustrates why one should NOT sell AMD stock no matter the high valuation because the corp in technological terms not only continues to deliver but BEATS expectations, AMD is on an exponential trend trajectory! I am not Selling at any price! We'll maybe if it starts trading on a multiple of over 80 I am may consider temporally selling but it could turn out to be a mistake to do so!
New Potential Addition to my AI Stocks Portfolio - Broadcom - AVGO
Broadcom an emerging semi-conductor and software giant taking steps to join the AI Mega-trend that unlike Nvidia and AMD few retail customers will have heard of given that it services the corporate sector rather then consumers. Broadcom's expanding divisions importantly encompass data centre infrastructure. networking, AI / Deep learning, ASIC's (crypto miners) as well as being in bed with Google on many projects and we all know what Google likes to do to it's tiny partners, buy stakes and ultimately take them over!
Broadcom trades on a relatively low P/E of just 22.7, I say just 22.7 which once upon a time would have been deemed to be fully valued! Just goes to show the market we are in right now, still it is a lot cheaper than most of the best stocks out there such as TSMC and AMD. Coupled with a market cap of $203 billion gives it room to grow into with the bonus of paying a 2.9% dividend that it has maintained and increased since 2010. Next earnings are due 2nd Sept, though i don't expect much change on the last quarters $6.62 EPS.
Fundamentals
The fundamentals paint a more mixed picture of 8 good, 3 mixed and 4 bad indications which is why one needs to go beyond just looking at the P/E Ratio. So fundamentally the stock stands somewhere between a sleeping giant and the AI tech giants it hopes to join, more nearer the sleepers than the likes of say AMD. So the fundamentals suggest to wait for a better valued opportunity to accumulate into which on current valuations would imply around $400 against the current price of $496.
The stock price shows strong support at between $420 and $460, so on a best case scenario the stock could spike down to $420, but during a correction could bottom at any price between $420 and $440. Next higher support is at $460. So technically the stock does not look like its going to trade down to $400 not unless there is as severe general market correction that pulls everything down by a good 15% or more.
Therefore an achievable buying level is $440. Would I buy at $440, it's a tough call, as after doing this analysis I would consider this a secondary stock to buy during a market correction, i.e. after I have had my fill of the likes of Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, AMD and Intel, and maybe IBM as well, only then would I turn my attention to Broadcom, so the stocks not quite as good as I first thought it would be. Whilst I would become a more eager buyer the closer the stock trades down towards $400. So the stock will remain a potential until at least the $440 buying level has been triggered.
The bottom line is that THIS dividend stock ALSO delivers capital gains unlike for instance Intel that has been stuck in a trading range for over 20 years.
Why is Netflix a FAANG Stock?
From time to time I get asked why isn't the FAANG stock Netflix on my portfolio list. However the real question is why is Netflix a FAANG stock in the first place?
Nvidia is far more a appropriate a stock at $580bn vs Netflix on $250bn market cap, thus I am pretty sure that at some point Nvidia will replace Netflix and thus the FAANG label will eventually become accurate and thus my AI stocks portfolio will become fully invested in the FAANG stocks (when I buy back that which I sold).
Stock Market CRASH / Correction
We will soon be moving into the window for a stock market correction where I penciled the probable expectations for it to take place sometime between Mid Sept to Mid October, though it could start earlier hence why I was not willing to wait around and de risked ahead of the window.
How much could the general indices such as the Dow drop? I have in mind a drop of somewhere between 15% to 20% as being the most provable outcome, though it is early days, so it could be less or it could a more but 15% to 20% is what I have had in mind for the likes of the Dow for some time.
Whether it will be just a correction and resume it's raging bull market or signal start of a bear market proper is uncertain, probability favours continuation but this is not 2011 when we were in a hated stealth bull market that few took seriously instead now every tom dick and harry thinks that stocks can only go up! And so will assume that buying the dip is a one way bet to stock market riches. Which is why one needs to focus on VALUATIONS! Buy when Stocks are CHEAP! For it allows one to survive BEAR MARKETs and not end up with a 20 year Dead Parrots like Cisco and Intel!
Just as bull markets see stocks OVER VALUED, bear markets tend to see stocks UNDER VALUED. Which is why I am reluctant to buy stocks when they are trading above a PE of 20, as there is little margin for error, a stock on a PE of 20 could during a bear market trade down to a PE of 10! Which means if earnings stay static that's a 50% DROP IN VALUE! Which is why I tend to iterate that my portfolio is thus structured that during a bear market or crash I would be fine with my portfolio falling in value by the worse case scenario of 50%, THAT IS THE RISK OF INVESTING IN STOCKS that most of the Johnny come latelys have no experience of or clue of what could hit them! Investing on margin with their 10% or 20% stops is going to get them WIPED OUT!
For me a 50% drop would be a great buying opportunity! I WOULD BE SO HAPPY IF MY PORTFOLIO CRASHED BY 50% IN VALUE AS I WOULD DOUBLE MY PORTFOLIO! Maybe even TRIPLEd it ! For I understand that one can easily recover from a 50% drop, but NOT from a 90% DROP that would become a dead parrot investment!
It is a inevitable that a lot of noob retail investors are going to get badly burned and their PANIC actions will feed the decline which is why the anticipated correction of 10% to 15% could easily turn into a 25%, 30% even 50% bear market as falling prices trigger margin calls, forced selling results in a cascade of falling prices! Which is why I never invest on margin as that is just asking to go broke!
So if you are not fine with a 50% draw down then maybe you need to bloody well start de risking along the highs then pay the price for letting greed get the better of you! After all all those who made say 400% on Cisco going into the March 2000 highs lost ALL of their gains and MORE during the subsequent 90% collapse! Imagine if they had sold say half, they would have still come out the other end with a decent 100% profit instead of a loss that would have crushed their will to invest for the next 20 years, perhaps only to resume investing a few months ago given that we are in a mania that is sucking everyone into it's buy the dip vortex. Forget buying the dip for now instead SELL THE HIGH!
What if I am Wrong and There is No Correction?
The rest of this extensive analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month that is soon set to increase to $4 per month for new Patrons, so a short window of opportunity exists to lock in at $3 per month now before the price hike. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season, Chinese Stocks and Bitcoin Trend Update
- FOMO Fumes on Negative Earnings
- Cathy Woods ARK Funds Performance Year to Date - Chinese Stocks Big Mistake
- INTEL The Two Steps Forward One Step Back Corporation
- AMD Ryzen 3D
- New Potential Addition to my AI Stocks Portfolio
- Why is Netflix a FAANG Stock?
- Stock Market CRASH / Correction
- What if I am Wrong and There is No Correction?
- How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market?
- Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia
- VIES - Variable Interest Entities
- CCP Paranoid
- Best AI Tech Stocks ETF?
- Best UK Investment Trust
- AI Stocks Buying Pressure Evaluation
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- AI Stocks Portfolio KEY
- What to Buy Today?
- INVEST AND FORGET HIGH RISK STOCKS!
- High Risk Stocks KEY
- Bitcoin Trend Forecast Current State
- Crypto Bear Market Accumulation Current State
- Crazy Crypto Exchanges - How to Buy Bitcoin for $42k, Sell for $59k when trading at $47k!
Including access to my recent extensive stock market analysis on the prospects for the Dow into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022
Contents:
- Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
- Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
- US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
- US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
- Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
- Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
- FED Balance Sheet
- Weakening Stock Market Breadth
- Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
- FANG Stocks
- Margin Debt
- Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
- Dow Annual Percent Change
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
- Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Short-term Seasonal Trend
- US Presidential Cycle
- Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
- 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
- Investing fundamentals
- IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
- Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
- CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
- Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
- Aukus Ruckus
And my most recent published analysis -
Silver Price Trend Forecast October 2021 to May 2022, CHINOBLE! AI Stocks Buying Plan
- UK Inflation Soaring into the Stratosphere, Real rate Probably 20% Per Annum
- The 2% Inflation SCAM, Millions of Workers take the Red Pill
- Silver Previous Forecast Recap
- Gold Price Trend Implications for Silver
- Silver Supply and Demand
- Silver vs US Dollar
- Gold / Silver Ratio
- SILVER Trend Analysis
- Long-term Trend Analysis
- Formulating a Trend Forecast
- Silver Price Trend Forecast October 2021 to May 2022
- Silver Investing Strategy
- SIL ETF - What About Silver Mining Stocks?
- Gold Price Trend Brief
- Why the CCP is Living on Borrowed Time and Needs a War
- Understanding the Chinese Regime and What it is Capable Of
- Guanxi
- Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak
- CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction!
- AI Stocks Portfolio Investing Strategy
- AI Stocks Portfolio Amendments
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- October Investing Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS INVEST AND FORGET PORTFOLIO
- Why China Could Crash Bitcoin / Crypto's!
- My Next Analysis
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month that is soon set to increase to $4 per month for new Patrons, so a short window of opportunity exists to lock in at $3 per month now before the price hike. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
My analysis schedule includes:
- UK House Prices Trend Analysis, including an update for the US and a quick look at Canada and China - 15% done
- How to Get Rich! - 90% done - This is a good 6 month work in progress nearing completion.
- US Dollar and British Pound analysis
- Gold Price Trend Analysis - 10%
Your de-risked along the highs analyst.
Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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