Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Silver Bull Market Update - 7th Aug 20
This Inflation-Adjusted Silver Chart Tells An Interesting Story - 7th Aug 20
The Great American Housing Boom Has Begun - 7th Aug 20
NATURAL GAS BEGINS UPSIDE BREAKOUT MOVE - 7th Aug 20
Know About Lotteries With The Best Odds Of Winning - 7th Aug 20
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
ARE YOU LOVING YOUR SERVITUDE? - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More - 30th Jul 20
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks - 30th Jul 20
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally - 30th Jul 20
How to Finance an Investment Property - 30th Jul 20
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs - 29th Jul 20
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction - 29th Jul 20
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust - 29th Jul 20
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) - 29th Jul 20
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? - 29th Jul 20
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge - 29th Jul 20
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle - 28th Jul 20
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold - 28th Jul 20
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway - 28th Jul 20
Why College Is Never Coming Back - 27th Jul 20
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds - 27th Jul 20
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt - 27th Jul 20
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? - 27th Jul 20
Google, Apple And Amazon Are Leading A $30 Trillion Assault On Wall Street - 27th Jul 20
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" - 26th Jul 20
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price - 26th Jul 20
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs - 26th Jul 20
How High Will Silver Go? - 25th Jul 20
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below - 25th Jul 20
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending - 25th Jul 20
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International - 25th Jul 20
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation - 25th Jul 20
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand - 24th Jul 20
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs - 24th Jul 20
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High - 24th Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

The Death of the US Real Estate Dream

Housing-Market / US Housing Jul 22, 2018 - 12:52 AM GMT

By: Harry_Dent

Housing-Market

In I showed how Japan’s first and more massive real estate bubble peaked in 1991. And then showed how it crashed right along our bubble model into 2013.

The difference was, it never bounced. Even when its Millennial generation came along to buy houses again.

A rise of “dyers” (sellers) were offsetting the rise of Millennial buyers.

Now let’s look at the U.S. bubble – or our double bubble.


Our first bubble peaked after peak demand from Boomers (2003) in early 2006 on a 41-year lag. Ant it crashed. The demographic downturn we predicted set in after 2007. Right when the sub-prime lending crisis blew up.

It took six years to build, and six years to crash into 2012. That’s down 34% versus Japan’s whopping 70% over 13 years.

https://economyandmarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/ENM-07-19-18-Chart-Two-DownsideRiskInUS-1024x768.png

Massive QE and ultra-low mortgage rates created a second – now artificial bubble – that has recently eclipsed the first one. And it looks almost identical in its size and buildup time – six years from 2012 into 2018.

This bubble will burst within the next year.

Its target is the low of 2012, and likely the low of early 2000. That creates a 40% to 50% downside in the next six years, into 2024-2025 or so.

So, what has happened since the first serious real estate downturn since the one from 1925 through 1933?

According to a study by the online apartment service RENTCafé, since 2007 ownership has dropped by 3.6 million and renters have gone up by 1.9 million.

Yes, that means more Millennials living with parents, and rising homelessness.

The causes are obvious: Much tighter lending standards, remarkably low supply – especially of affordable, less profitable starter homes – along with soaring prices and valuations…

Home prices have gone up 35%, while rent is up only 20% in the last five years, making home prices 75% more expensive than rental prices. Both are way above wage gains, which have been near nil.

Overall, the bubble and crash thus far are not nearly as bad as Japan.

Our demographics aren’t as unfavorable, but still very much so given the new model of subtracting dyers from peak buyers.

In this case, peak buying in the future is at age 42 for the U.S. and age 78 for dyers, as we don’t live as long as the Japanese on average.

So, even if we hit a bottom by 2025 when the highest numbers of Boomers die, prices will still be likely flat to down a bit into 2039 or so.

There’s a big difference from Japan’s demographic spiral.

Net demand does not turn negative until 2032 – so we won’t have tens of millions of empty homes like Japan.

Builders will be even more cautious next time around, as will buyers, at first.

Millennials will ultimately choose to buy just to control their own house and destiny, even though appreciation is unlikely to top modest inflation.

“The Dream” of getting rich off of real estate will be dead by 2024, and no longer considered “on hold.”

The demand for vacation and retirement homes will peak last for the aging Baby Boomer generation around 2026. That would be the best time to sell those homes, if you don’t near term, to avoid a bigger crash ahead.

The best thing you can do is convince your kids to wait until at least 2024 to buy – and be happy renting until then.

They should look to other financial investments to build their wealth. Whether it be stocks in the booming emerging nations (like India and Southeast Asia). Or the next great commodity boom that’ll favor metals.

Or, let Adam, our Chief Investment Strategist here at Dent Research, lend you a hand in preparing for what’s to come. Using

Whatever you do, just know that the dream of owning a home for profit is dead…

Harry

http://economyandmarkets.com

Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr

Harry studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of the profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning New Science of Finance, which married economic research and market research and encompassed identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many, many other trends that empowered him to forecast economic and market changes.

Copyright © 2018 Harry Dent- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Harry Dent Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

upwarddog
23 Jul 18, 01:53
Dream of making predictions is dead

Nadeem these soothsayers articles bring down the credibility to such an otherwise informative site. Dent also predicted a 50% drop in the S&P 500 for year 2013 which ended up over 13%. DOW 40,000 by 2010. Oops, wrong again. Nothing but outlandish predictions to garner attention and sell books.

How about Dent's exchange traded funds that were shut down? The list goes on. If he says sell real estate, probably a great time to continue holding.


Nadeem_Walayat
25 Jul 18, 20:31
US Housing

Yes, he got the US housing market very badly wrong,

sold it all the way UP!

I even had to mention in some articles back in 2013/14...

Will do a US housing market update soon....


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules