Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
A Simple Way to Preserve Your Wealth Amid Uncertainty - 11th Aug 20
Precious Metals Complex Impulse Move : Where Is next Resistance? - 11th Aug 20
Gold Miners Junior Stcks Buying Spree - 11th Aug 20
Has the Fed Let the Inflation Genie Out of the Bottle? - 10th Aug 20
The Strange Food Trend That’s Making Investors Rich - 10th Aug 20
Supply & Demand For Money – The End of Inflation? - 10th Aug 20
Revisiting Our Silver and Gold Predictions – Get Ready For Higher Prices - 10th Aug 20
Storm Clouds Are Gathering for a Major Stock and Commodity Markets Downturn - 10th Aug 20
A 90-Year-Old Stock Market Investment Insight That's Relevant in 2020 - 10th Aug 20
Debt and Dollar Collapse Leading to Potential Stock Market Melt-Up, - 10th Aug 20
Coronavirus: UK Parents Demand ALL Schools OPEN September, 7 Million Children Abandoned by Teachers - 9th Aug 20
Computer GPU Fans Not Spinning Quick FIX - Sticky Fans Solution - 9th Aug 20
Find the Best Speech Converter for You - 9th Aug 20
Silver Bull Market Update - 7th Aug 20
This Inflation-Adjusted Silver Chart Tells An Interesting Story - 7th Aug 20
The Great American Housing Boom Has Begun - 7th Aug 20
NATURAL GAS BEGINS UPSIDE BREAKOUT MOVE - 7th Aug 20
Know About Lotteries With The Best Odds Of Winning - 7th Aug 20
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
ARE YOU LOVING YOUR SERVITUDE? - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More - 30th Jul 20
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks - 30th Jul 20
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally - 30th Jul 20
How to Finance an Investment Property - 30th Jul 20
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs - 29th Jul 20
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction - 29th Jul 20
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust - 29th Jul 20
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) - 29th Jul 20
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? - 29th Jul 20
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge - 29th Jul 20
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle - 28th Jul 20
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold - 28th Jul 20
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway - 28th Jul 20
Why College Is Never Coming Back - 27th Jul 20
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds - 27th Jul 20
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt - 27th Jul 20
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? - 27th Jul 20
Google, Apple And Amazon Are Leading A $30 Trillion Assault On Wall Street - 27th Jul 20
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" - 26th Jul 20
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price - 26th Jul 20
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs - 26th Jul 20
How High Will Silver Go? - 25th Jul 20
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below - 25th Jul 20
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending - 25th Jul 20
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International - 25th Jul 20
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation - 25th Jul 20
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand - 24th Jul 20
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs - 24th Jul 20
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High - 24th Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

U.S. Housing Market Now Providing a Tailwind to Economic Growth

Housing-Market / US Housing Jan 16, 2014 - 03:53 PM GMT

By: PhilStockWorld

Housing-Market

Courtesy of Doug Short: While residential investment represents a small portion of gross domestic product (GDP), housing is perhaps one of the most cyclical sectors of the economy and tends to lead economic swings by months to years. As such, keeping a close eye on housing provides a valuable insight into future economic trends. While housing represented a major headwind to the economy after the housing bubble burst, as I show below, it is now providing a major tailwind instead.


At the peak in 2005 housing represented 6.26% of GDP, the highest level seen in over a half century. Once the housing bubble burst and things came to a standstill, housing activity relative to GDP fell to levels never seen before and hit a low of 2.22% in early 2011.

Source: Bloomberg

After the late 2005 peak housing?s positive contribution to GDP began to decline and by the middle of 2006 began to subtract from GDP. Then, from late 2006 through much of 2009, housing was shaving roughly 1% off of GDP. As housing began to stabilize in 2010 and 2011, it stopped dragging the economy down and, beginning in 2012, actually started adding to GDP growth. As of last year, 2013, housing has added roughly 0.40% to GDP each quarter and now represents a tailwind to the economy.

Source: Bloomberg

The current improvement in the housing sector is no small thing since it plays a key role in the economy. As such, it also acts as a leading economic indicator. A pickup in housing activity is followed by improvements in many other areas of the economy down the road. One direct beneficiary of this is state and local governments?an area that has also been a drag on the economy as they’ve been forced to tighten their belts and cut back on expenditures.

Historically, home price increases lead property tax revenue increases by four years, and based on the rise in home prices over the last few years the growth in state and local property tax revenues are likely to rise from the current 1.6% annual growth rate to 10% growth by the middle of 2016.

Source: Bloomberg

The recent stabilization in property tax revenue and ongoing recovery in housing and other areas of the economy are beginning to turn around the financial situation of state and local governments as the following Bloomberg article illustrates.

States Cut Taxes, Increase Spending as Economy Improves

U.S. states are cutting taxes and increasing spending as the improving economy lifts their revenue, marking a recovery from the financial strains that persisted after the recession.

Spending by state governments is set to climb 3.8 percent to $722 billion during the current budget year, the fourth straight annual increase, according to a report released today by the National Association of State Budget Officers. With more money on hand, 23 states cut taxes or took other steps that reduced revenue, and 42 boosted funding for schools.

?State fiscal conditions are modestly improving,? the Washington-based budget officers group said in the report. ?Signs of fiscal distress continue to subside, and most states expect revenue and spending growth in fiscal 2014.?

The financial gains are lifting a drag on the economy after the 18-month recession that ended in 2009, during which states eliminated jobs and cut spending to make up for declining revenue. In the six months through September, U.S. economic growth advanced partly because of increases in state and local government spending, according to the Commerce Department.

This year, 16 states faced shortfalls totaling $6.4 billion. That?s down from $37 billion a year earlier, according to the budget officers? report. For the next fiscal year, ten states are forecasting shortfalls, amounting to $4.4 billion.

As housing represents the largest financial asset for consumers, swings in housing prices are also correlated with swings in consumer sentiment. Even though the recession ended in the middle of 2009, consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, remained near multi-decade lows. It was only after housing prices stabilized in 2010 that sentiment began to improve.

Source: Bloomberg

An improvement in consumer sentiment is important since rising consumer confidence is associated with rising levels of consumer spending. Given consumption is more than 70% of GDP, the domino effect of rising home prices translates into higher consumer sentiment which then leads to greater consumption and then to higher GDP growth. This linkage can be easily seen below with the high correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (black line), consumer consumption (red line), and GDP growth rates (blue line).

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Summary

Since 2005, housing has swung from one side of the pendulum to the other and since 2010 has begun a slow and gradual healing process. Housing is now adding to GDP growth and replenishing state and local government coffers through higher property taxes and leading to an improvement in consumer sentiment. The greater level of optimism seen by the consumer will translate into higher consumption rates and thus higher GDP rates. At the current 3.17% share of GDP, housing is still well below the historical 4.4% average and far below prior peaks near 5.5%-6%, and thus will likely continue to be a tailwind for the economy for some time. That said, housing represents roughly a third of the CPI Index and will likely cause inflation rates to pick back up, which should be monitored as it will eat into discretionary spending.

Originally posted at Financial Sense

(c) PFS Group
PFS Group

- Phil

Click here for a free trial to Stock World Weekly.

www.philstockworld.com

Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks). Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)

© 2014 Copyright  PhilStockWorld - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

PhilStockWorld Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules