Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
AMD Ryzen 4900x / 5900x and 4950x / 5950x Zen3 4th Gen IPC and Clock Speed and Core Specs - 14th Aug 20
Stock Market Gap Fills Suggests Market Momentum May Stall - 14th Aug 20
Silver May Be Overextended – But It’s STILL Cheap - 14th Aug 20
A Short Guide To Making Your First Stock Market Investment - 14th Aug 20
Is Tech Reality Affects our Dating Possibilities? - 14th Aug 20
Will You Make Money in the New Silver Bull Market ? - 13th Aug 20
Hyper-Deflation Capital Destruction And Gold & Silver - 13th Aug 20
Stock Market Correction Approaching - 13th Aug 20
Silver Took the Stairs to $21 in 2008, Took Escalator to $29 2010. Is Silver on Elevator to 120th floor today? - 13th Aug 20
President Trump Signs Additional COVID Relief – What To Expect from the Markets - 13th Aug 20
Has Gold's Upward Drive Come to an End? - 13th Aug 20
YouTuber Ads Revenue & How to Start a Career on YouTube - 13th Aug 20
Silver Notches Best Month Since 1979 - 12th Aug 20
Silver Shorts Get Squeezed Hard… What’s Next? - 12th Aug 20
A Tale of Two Precious Metal Bulls - 12th Aug 20
Stock Market Melt-Up Continues While Precious Metals Warn of Risks - 12th Aug 20
How Does the Gold Fit the Corona World? - 12th Aug 20
3 (free) ways to ride next big wave in EURUSD, USDJPY, gold, silver and more - 12th Aug 20
A Simple Way to Preserve Your Wealth Amid Uncertainty - 11th Aug 20
Precious Metals Complex Impulse Move : Where Is next Resistance? - 11th Aug 20
Gold Miners Junior Stcks Buying Spree - 11th Aug 20
Has the Fed Let the Inflation Genie Out of the Bottle? - 10th Aug 20
The Strange Food Trend That’s Making Investors Rich - 10th Aug 20
Supply & Demand For Money – The End of Inflation? - 10th Aug 20
Revisiting Our Silver and Gold Predictions – Get Ready For Higher Prices - 10th Aug 20
Storm Clouds Are Gathering for a Major Stock and Commodity Markets Downturn - 10th Aug 20
A 90-Year-Old Stock Market Investment Insight That's Relevant in 2020 - 10th Aug 20
Debt and Dollar Collapse Leading to Potential Stock Market Melt-Up, - 10th Aug 20
Coronavirus: UK Parents Demand ALL Schools OPEN September, 7 Million Children Abandoned by Teachers - 9th Aug 20
Computer GPU Fans Not Spinning Quick FIX - Sticky Fans Solution - 9th Aug 20
Find the Best Speech Converter for You - 9th Aug 20
Silver Bull Market Update - 7th Aug 20
This Inflation-Adjusted Silver Chart Tells An Interesting Story - 7th Aug 20
The Great American Housing Boom Has Begun - 7th Aug 20
NATURAL GAS BEGINS UPSIDE BREAKOUT MOVE - 7th Aug 20
Know About Lotteries With The Best Odds Of Winning - 7th Aug 20
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
ARE YOU LOVING YOUR SERVITUDE? - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

U.S. Housing Market Debt, The Government’s Loan Mod Bizarro World

Housing-Market / US Housing Apr 16, 2010 - 02:49 AM GMT

By: Tim_Iacono

Housing-Market

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJust when you think that the statistics can’t get any worse for the graduating class of the Obama Administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program, they do. Otherwise known as HAMP, this program is apparently designed to convince people who really can’t afford their current debt load that they really can.


To that end, it is meeting with modest success.

How else can one explain that total debt-to-income ratios have risen even higher than February’s ridiculous burden of just under 60 percent as noted in this item four weeks ago?

3

Over the last four weeks, some 60,000 HAMP “trial” participants have had their loan modifications elevated to “permanent” status, meaning that they can now go confidently forth into the world thinking that their impossible debt load is somehow under control.

It’s not.

As shown below, the median back-end debt-to-income ratio has now climbed to over 61 percent with no upper limit in sight (no, you can’t go over 100 percent, but that doesn’t mean they won’t try – just make sure you get that counseling as detailed in note 2).

What is even more astonishing about this data is that things are getting worse very quickly, much faster than the 1.5 percentage point increase in total debt service as shown above.

Consider that, in February, there were 170,000 “permanent” loan mods and, last month, another 60,000 joined their ranks. A quick calculation reveals that, in order for the new graduates to raise the overall median from 59.8 percent to 61.3 percent, the median back-end debt-to-income ratio for the next 60,000 had to be somewhere around 65 percent!!

Sixty five percent!!

How can these people possibly afford to pay their taxes, service their debt, and then have enough money left over to put food on the table and pay their utilities, let alone buy gasoline, clothes, and sock away a little money for retirement?

The government must be living in some kind of loan mod “bizarro world” to think that these “permanent” loans won’t go bad on a massive scale.

That assessment of the government’s grasp on reality was confirmed in this NY Times story the other day when Shaun Donovan, secretary of Housing and Urban Development uttered these rather remarkable words:

Given how stressed these borrowers are, even in the best situation, there will be redefaults. But I don’t think there is any evidence that would cause us to worry at this point.

Of course not…

They’ve got enough to worry about getting people out of old debt burdens that they couldn’t manage into new, slightly lower debt burdens where they have little or no chance of survival either.

Julia Gordon of the Center for Responsible Lending was also quoted in the NY Times story and provided a much more realistic view of things:

It’s definitely alarming to look at those statistics. The current model for modifications doesn’t necessarily produce sustainable results.

Well, maybe that was never the plan.

The record shows that more than half of the loans modified in late-2008 ended up redefaulting within a year and, with debt-to-income levels as high as that being produced by HAMP, you’d expect that success rate to be just a pipe dream for HAMP.

Truly startling is the realization that these 230,000 “permanent” loan modifications represent the current cream of the crop, one that appears to be less creamy every month.

Of course, this is working out rather nicely for the banks.

While the”homeowner” gets a slightly lower mortgage payment, thanks to freakishly low interest rates subsidized by the Treasury Department, the banks get to carry these loans on their books at full value, as if they’ll ultimately be repaid.

And, better yet for other banks, second mortgages are not touched during these loan modifications. In fact, in many cases under their new monthly payment regime, homeowners will be writing out a larger check for their home equity line of credit or second mortgage than for their first mortgage where the payment has been lowered thanks to Uncle Sam.

Clearly Elizabeth Warren had it right yesterday when she told “homeowners”:

Some of you should stay in your homes…and some of you don’t belong in those homes and you’ve got to be moved out. And frankly, those houses need to get back onto the market and get into the hands of people who can afford them. In other words, acknowledge the problem, deal with it, write off the losses and start rebuilding an economy on solid ground.

Now that sounds like a good plan.

The bad news is that, in the government’s eyes, “extend and pretend” appears to be the order of the day – extend the period of time that banks keep getting sent monthly mortgage checks while pretending that all of the borrowed money will somehow be repaid.

By Tim Iacono
Email : mailto:tim@iaconoresearch.com
http://www.iaconoresearch.com
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/

Tim Iacano is an engineer by profession, with a keen understanding of human nature, his study of economics and financial markets began in earnest in the late 1990s - this is where it has led. he is self taught and self sufficient - analyst, writer, webmaster, marketer, bill-collector, and bill-payer. This is intended to be a long-term operation where the only items that will ever be offered for sale to the public are subscriptions to his service and books that he plans to write in the years ahead.

Copyright © 2010 Iacono Research, LLC - All Rights Reserved

Tim Iacono Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules