Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, April 14, 2016
Why is The MSM Covering Up Recessionary Data? / Economics / Recession 2016
By: James_Quinn
The Census Bureau put out their monthly retail sales report this morning. During good times, the MSM would be hailing the tremendous increases as proof the consumer was flush with cash and all was well with the economy. Considering 70% of our GDP is dependent upon consumer spending, you would think this data point would be pretty important in judging how well Americans are really doing.
It's not perfect, because the issuance of debt to consumers to purchase autos, furniture, appliances and electronics can juice the retail sales numbers and create the false impression of strength. That's what has been going on with auto sales for the last two years.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2016
The Millennial Moment and the Global Crisis / Economics / Demographics
By: Clif_Droke
It's a trite saying but a profound one all the same: "History always repeats." We've all heard this bromide countless times, yet how many of us have truly pondered its significance?
The truism that history tends to repeat itself over time is the basis of the cyclical view of human affairs as applied to the financial market. Cycle investors believe that by studying past episodes of a similar character they can divine the outcome of currents events. It's not surprising then that the cyclists among us have turned their attention toward the global financial market slowdown and tepid pace of the U.S. economy recovery.
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Saturday, April 09, 2016
The Minimum Wage Debate – So What? / Economics / Wages
By: Andy_Sutton
There has been an incredible amount of posturing, debate, and arguing over the minimum wage situation – particularly surrounding recent events in California and New York where legislation was recently signed into law that would effectively double the nominal minimum wage over the next several years – 6 years in California, and 3 in New York City. The rest of New York will see the changes phased in over a longer period of time.
Instead of diving headlong into the useless arguing and name-calling, I think it is important to take a step back from the dogmatic rhetoric we hear on television, from the media, our legislators, and those in academia and take a hard look at the economics behind the idea of having a minimum wage to begin with. This going to take a bit of a leap for pretty much all of us since we’ve either grown up with a minimum wage in place or have had a job that paid minimum wage at some point – myself included.
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Friday, April 08, 2016
Oor 'Lawnmower' Economy - Financiers Skim Profits While Main Street Stagnates / Economics / US Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long share their thinking on why the middle class in America has been experiencing a steady decline in their real standard of living over the last four decades and why the decline has recently accelerated. Their is a fundamental reason why productivity is falling while corporate profits soar and the employment participation rates falls.
Thursday, April 07, 2016
Can We Grow Out Of Our Economic Problems If We’re Not Actually Growing? / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
The rationale for today’s easy money policies is pretty straightforward: Falling interest rates and rising government deficits will counteract the drag of excessive debts taken on in previous stimulus programs and asset bubbles, enabling the developed world to create wealth faster than it takes on new debt. The result: a steady decline in debt/GDP to levels that allow the current system to survive without wrenching changes.
Sunday, April 03, 2016
California Minimum Wage Hike History / Economics / Wages
By: Mike_Shedlock
California Governor Jerry Brown launched a Political Earthquake proposing a series of minimum wage hikes every year between now and 2022 when the minimum wage hits $15.
The Huffington post reports "The new law will boost paychecks for millions of California workers. More than 40% of California workers earn less than $15 dollars an hour."
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Sunday, April 03, 2016
What New Economic Recovery? / Economics / US Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The rise of the ‘dollar store business model’ caters to a disappearing ‘middle class’ who are incurring shrinking incomes. This has made ‘dollar stores’ prosper, in the last decade. Dollar stores, for most Americans, have carried an odd sort of stigma. In the past, these stores were seen as shopping for the poor, only. We are all now aware that many people who were in the once strong American ‘middle class’ were thrown off of the prosperity path and into ‘lower income’ brackets from business layoffs, downsizing, and salary reduction. While regular product companies struggle the expanding ‘dollar stores’ have found a niche in this economic climate. The shrinking ‘middle class’ means more customers for ‘dollar stores’.
Saturday, April 02, 2016
Cost Push Inflation is Another Keynesian Concept the Federal Reserve Believes In - They're Wrong / Economics / Inflation
By: Gordon_T_Long
FRA Co-founder Gordon T. Long is joined by Christopher P. Casey in discussing the decrease in oil price and its potential effect on the global economy.
Mr. Casey is the Managing Director of WindRock Wealth Management, a registered investment advisor and wealth management firm that subscribes to the Austrian school of economics. Mr. Casey is a frequent speaker before a number of organizations and conferences, including USA Watchdog, GoldMoney, Freedom Fest, and various bar associations and radio shows, including weekly financial and economic commentary on The Edge of Liberty (WNJC 1360, Philadelphia). His writings have appeared in a variety of publications and websites including The Ludwig von Mises Institute, Zero Hedge, Family Business, Casey Research, and Laissez Faire Books. He is a board member of the Economics Development Council with the University of Illinois, a Policy Advisor for The Heartland Institute's Center on Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate, and a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder (CFA®)
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Thursday, March 31, 2016
Inflation is Here and the Fed Wants More / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed failed to hike interest rates in March despite the “data” hitting levels at which the Fed said it would hike. Indeed, the Fed even lowered its expected number of rate hikes for this year from four to two!
This confirms for us that the Fed does indeed want inflation.
In the last few weeks, several Fed officials, most notably Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer stated not only that inflation was appearing in the US but that this is something the Fed “would like to happen.”
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Thursday, March 31, 2016
Beware of March Non Farm Payrolls. They Have the Worst Record than any Other Month / Economics / Employment
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The table below shows the consistency of misses (actual figure below consensus forecasts) in March NFPs over the last three years. In fact, NFP figures for the month of March have come in below forecasts in 7 out of the last 8 March reports with an average miss of -59k.
Most strikingly & recently, last year's March report showed a 126K reading, well below consensus of 245K. Interestingly, that 129K reading was revised down to 88K one month later.
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Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Price Controls May Be On the Way / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Paul-Martin Foss writes: If you thought negative interest rates were as bad as it could get with central banks, you might be in for a surprise. Central banks have been so spectacularly unsuccessful with their accommodative monetary policies that they are discussing pulling out all the stops to get the results they want. They fail to realize that the reason prices aren’t rising is because they really want and need to fall. Bad debts weren’t liquidated during the last financial crisis, the debtors were merely bailed out. Overpriced assets weren’t allowed to be reduced in price. Central banks pumped trillions of dollars into the economy to attempt to paper over the recession. Market forces want to drive prices down, while central banks attempt to prop them up. So what to do when central banks aren’t getting their way?
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Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Inflation Has Hit the US and is Only Going to Get Worse / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed is rapidly losing control.
Core inflation has already broken above 2%.
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Tuesday, March 29, 2016
The UK Auto Market Is Booming, So Is It a Sign of Economic Recovery? / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nicholas_Kitonyi
The UK has been one of those economies that cannot exactly be classified as recovering or struggling over the last couple of years. To put it clear, the UK economy has not been as good as the US economy in terms of growth amongst the developed countries or as bad as the Euro Zone.
The UK economy has been more or less stuck in the past few years with no significant movement either side of the growth curve. Nonetheless, one of the country’s key performance indicators in the manufacturing industry has shown some significant improvement, and recent numbers suggest that things could even get better in 2016 and 2017.
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
China Boasts Most Billionaires in the World and Makes For a Great Long Term Investment / Economics / Demographics
By: Sol_Palha
Our Asian edge Index and trend indicator clearly stated back in 2005, that China would lead the way in economic growth and eventually overtake the US in many areas. China now boasts the World's Largest Middle Class, and it is growing much faster than our Middle-Class.
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Sunday, March 27, 2016
China Economy Soft Landing or Bust? SSEC Stock Market Analysis / Economics / China Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
China’s stock market ‘bubble’ was fueled by "speculative mania" which has proven to have had grave implications of the global stock markets. The collapse of this "speculative mania" will have far reaching ramifications on our current global stock markets. This indicates that Central Bank interventions cannot alter market cycles.
Friday, March 25, 2016
BEA Revises U.S. GDP Economic Growth Upward to 1.38% for Q4 2015 / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their third and final estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +1.38% annualized rate, up +0.38% from their previous estimate for the fourth quarter, but still down -0.61% from the third quarter.
The improvement was broadly based, with the revision to consumer expenditures for services having the greatest impact (+0.34%). Exports (+0.09%) and imports (+0.02%) also improved, as did commercial fixed investment (+0.04%) and governmental expenditures (+0.03%).
Wednesday, March 23, 2016
Fed's Bullard: We Are Overshooting on Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard spoke with Michael McKee and Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV and Bloomberg Radio this morning. He discussed Fed policy, the U.S. economy global inflation, and moving toward a more normal nominal interest rate structure.
Bullard said policy makers should consider raising interest rates at their next meeting: "You get another strong jobs report, it looks like labor markets are improving, you could probably make a case for moving in April."
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
The Chinese Economic "Miracle" Evaporates / Economics / China Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
There’s no doubt that the Chinese economic miracle is real. When you move 500 million people from rural to urban settings, taking them from small farms and putting them in a specialized labor force, the economic dividend is massive. That’s how you keep GDP growing more than 7% for 25 years. But along the way, they wanted more.Beyond building factories and housing for new arrivals, local politicians started building massive, wasteful projects.
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Tuesday, March 22, 2016
Greenspan Now Worried About Inflation, Says 'Entitlements Crowding Out Investment, Productivity is Dead' / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan spoke with Tom Keene and Mike McKee for Bloomberg TV & Radio. He discussed the ramifications of negative interest rates, entitlement spending, and declining productivity.
On the state of the U.S. and global economy, he said: "We're in trouble basically because productivity is dead in the water."
On whether he is optimistic going forward, Greenspan said: "No. I haven't been for quite a while. And I won't be until we can resolve the entitlement programs. Nobody wants to touch it. And that is gradually crowding out capital investment, and that's crowding out productivity, and it's crowding out the standards of living where do you want me to go from there."
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Tuesday, March 22, 2016
Here We Go Again: U.S. Government Ramps Up Borrowing As Private Sector Slows / Economics / Government Spending
By: John_Rubino
This morning, US existing home sales plunged and the Chicago Fed’s national activity index turned negative. Both are obvious signs of a slowing economy.
Anticipating this kind of news, Credit Bubble Bulletin’s Doug Noland in his most recent column analyzed the Federal Reserve’s quarterly Z.1 Report for signs of changing financial trends, and found something potentially serious. The following three charts tell the tale:
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